Investigating the Role of Real Divisia Money in Persistence-Robust Econometric Models

This paper investigates the causal relationships between real money and real activity. Whereas previous literature has mainly focused on simple-sum aggregates, we instead use Divisia ones, thus avoiding the so-called Barnett Critique. Standard Granger non-causality tests are implemented in two di¤erent frameworks: Fully Modied VARs (Phillips, 1995) and surplus-lag VARX models (Bauer and Maynard, 2012). These two environments allow modeling mixtures of I(0)/I(1) variables with possible cointegration without pretesting for ntegration nor for the dimension of the cointegration space. Moreover the latter method is also robust to various other forms of persistence such as local-to-unity processes, long memory/fractional integration, or unmodeled breaks-in-mean in the causal variables. By implementing the tests on di¤erent sub-samples identied by standard structural break tests, and using three di¤erent measures of money (DM4, DM4- and DM3), the tests suggest a unidirectional causality from activity to money. Moreover, from one period to another, the whole causal structure of the systems seem to change, as well as the stationarity of the series. At last, the two methodologies return similar results

The new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates: design, construction, and data sources

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) has initiated a new Divisia monetary aggregates database, maintained within the CFS program called Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM). The Director of the program is William A. Barnett, who is the originator of Divisia monetary aggregation and more broadly of the associated field of aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation. The international section of the AMFM web site is a centralized source for Divisia monetary aggregates data and research for over 40 countries throughout the world. The components of the CFS Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States reflect closely those of the current and former simple-sum monetary aggregates provided by the Federal Reserve. The first five levels, M1, M2, M2M, MZM, and ALL, are composed of currency, deposit accounts, and money market accounts. The liquid asset extensions to M3, M4-, and M4 resemble in spirit the now discontinued M3 and L aggregates, including repurchase agreements, large denomination time deposits, commercial paper, and Treasury bills. When the Federal Reserve discontinued publishing M3 and L, the Fed stopped providing the consolidated, seasonally adjusted components. Also the Fed no longer provides the interest rates on the components. With so much of the needed component quantity and interest-rate data no longer available from the Federal Reserve, decisions about data sources needed in construction of the CFS aggregates have been far from easy and sometimes required regression interpolation. This paper documents the decisions of the CFS regarding United States data sources at the present time, with particular emphasis on Divisia M3 and M4

The new CFS Divisia monetary aggregates: design, construction, and data sources

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) has initiated a new Divisia monetary aggregates database, maintained within the CFS program called Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM). The Director of the program is William A. Barnett, who is the originator of Divisia monetary aggregation and more broadly of the associated field of aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation. The international section of the AMFM web site is a centralized source for Divisia monetary aggregates data and research for over 40 countries throughout the world. The components of the CFS Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States reflect closely those of the current and former simple-sum monetary aggregates provided by the Federal Reserve. The first five levels, M1, M2, M2M, MZM, and ALL, are composed of currency, deposit accounts, and money market accounts. The liquid asset extensions to M3, M4-, and M4 resemble in spirit the now discontinued M3 and L aggregates, including repurchase agreements, large denomination time deposits, commercial paper, and Treasury bills. When the Federal Reserve discontinued publishing M3 and L, the Fed stopped providing the consolidated, seasonally adjusted components. Also the Fed no longer provides the interest rates on the components. With so much of the needed component quantity and interest-rate data no longer available from the Federal Reserve, decisions about data sources needed in construction of the CFS aggregates have been far from easy and sometimes required regression interpolation. This paper documents the decisions of the CFS regarding United States data sources at the present time, with particular emphasis on Divisia M3 and M4

Top quark mass measurement using the template method at CDF

We present a measurement of the top quark mass in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels of $t\bar{t}$ decays using the template method. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.6 fb$^{-1}$ of $p\bar{p}$ collisions at Tevatron with $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV, collected with the CDF II detector. The measurement is performed by constructing templates of three kinematic variables in the lepton+jets and two kinematic variables in the dilepton channel. The variables are two reconstructed top quark masses from different jets-to-quarks combinations and the invariant mass of two jets from the $W$ decay in the lepton+jets channel, and a reconstructed top quark mass and $m_{T2}$, a variable related to the transverse mass in events with two missing particles, in the dilepton channel. The simultaneous fit of the templates from signal and background events in the lepton+jets and dilepton channels to the data yields a measured top quark mass of $M_{top} = 172.1 \pm 1.1(stat) \pm 0.9(syst).$Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev.

Evidence for the exclusive decay Bc+- to J/psi pi+- and measurement of the mass of the Bc meson

We report first evidence for a fully reconstructed decay mode of the B_c^{\pm} meson in the channel B_c^{\pm} \to J/psi \pi^{\pm}, with J/psi \to mu^+mu^-. The analysis is based on an integrated luminosity of 360 pb$^{-1} in p\bar{p} collisions at 1.96 TeV center of mass energy collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We observe 14.6 \pm 4.6 signal events with a background of 7.1 \pm 0.9 events, and a fit to the J/psi pi^{\pm} mass spectrum yields a B_c^{\pm} mass of 6285.7 \pm 5.3(stat) \pm 1.2(syst) MeV/c^2. The probability of a peak of this magnitude occurring by random fluctuation in the search region is estimated as 0.012%.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures. Version 3, accepted by PR

Measurement of WγW\gamma and ZγZ\gamma Production in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

The Standard Model predictions for $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ production are tested using an integrated luminosity of 200 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collision data collected at the Collider Detector at Fermilab. The cross sections are measured selecting leptonic decays of the $W$ and $Z$ bosons, and photons with transverse energy $E_T>7$ GeV that are well separated from leptons. The production cross sections and kinematic distributions for the $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ are compared to SM predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR

Measurement of the Lifetime Difference Between B_s Mass Eigenstates

We present measurements of the lifetimes and polarization amplitudes for B_s --> J/psi phi and B_d --> J/psi K*0 decays. Lifetimes of the heavy (H) and light (L) mass eigenstates in the B_s system are separately measured for the first time by determining the relative contributions of amplitudes with definite CP as a function of the decay time. Using 203 +/- 15 B_s decays, we obtain tau_L = (1.05 +{0.16}/-{0.13} +/- 0.02) ps and tau_H = (2.07 +{0.58}/-{0.46} +/- 0.03) ps. Expressed in terms of the difference DeltaGamma_s and average Gamma_s, of the decay rates of the two eigenstates, the results are DeltaGamma_s/Gamma_s = (65 +{25}/-{33} +/- 1)%, and DeltaGamma_s = (0.47 +{0.19}/-{0.24} +/- 0.01) inverse ps.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables; as published in Physical Review Letters on 16 March 2005; revisions are for length and typesetting only, no changes in results or conclusion

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV using Lepton + Jets Events with Secondary Vertex b-tagging

We present a measurement of the ttbar production cross section using events with one charged lepton and jets from ppbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. In these events, heavy flavor quarks from top quark decay are identified with a secondary vertex tagging algorithm. From 162 pb-1 of data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab, a total of 48 candidate events are selected, where 13.5 +- 1.8 events are expected from background contributions. We measure a ttbar production cross section of 5.6^{+1.2}_{-1.1} (stat.) ^{+0.9}_{0.6} (syst.) pb.Comment: 28 pages, 20 figures. Published in Physical Review

Measurement of the Dipion Mass Spectrum in X(3872) -> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- Decays

We measure the dipion mass spectrum in X(3872)--> J/Psi Pi+ Pi- decays using 360 pb-1 of pbar-p collisions at 1.96 TeV collected with the CDF II detector. The spectrum is fit with predictions for odd C-parity (3S1, 1P1, and 3DJ) charmonia decaying to J/Psi Pi+ Pi-, as well as even C-parity states in which the pions are from Rho0 decay. The latter case also encompasses exotic interpretations, such as a D0-D*0Bar molecule. Only the 3S1 and J/Psi Rho hypotheses are compatible with our data. Since 3S1 is untenable on other grounds, decay via J/Psi Rho is favored, which implies C=+1 for the X(3872). Models for different J/Psi-Rho angular momenta L are considered. Flexibility in the models, especially the introduction of Rho-Omega interference, enable good descriptions of our data for both L=0 and 1.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures -- Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Search for Higgs Boson Decaying to b-bbar and Produced in Association with W Bosons in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

We present a search for Higgs bosons decaying into b-bbar and produced in association with W bosons in p-pbar collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. This search uses 320 pb-1 of the dataset accumulated by the upgraded Collider Detector at Fermilab. Events are selected that have a high-transverse momentum electron or muon, missing transverse energy, and two jets, one of which is consistent with a hadronization of a b quark. Both the number of events and the dijet mass distribution are consistent with standard model background expectations, and we set 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section times branching ratio for the Higgs boson or any new particle with similar decay kinematics. These upper limits range from 10 pb for mH=110 GeV/c2 to 3 pb for mH=150 GeV/c2.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures; updated title to published versio