Quasispecies Spatial Models for RNA Viruses with Different Replication Modes and Infection Strategies

Empirical observations and theoretical studies suggest that viruses may use different replication strategies to amplify their genomes, which impact the dynamics of mutation accumulation in viral populations and therefore, their fitness and virulence. Similarly, during natural infections, viruses replicate and infect cells that are rarely in suspension but spatially organized. Surprisingly, most quasispecies models of virus replication have ignored these two phenomena. In order to study these two viral characteristics, we have developed stochastic cellular automata models that simulate two different modes of replication (geometric vs stamping machine) for quasispecies replicating and spreading on a two-dimensional space. Furthermore, we explored these two replication models considering epistatic fitness landscapes (antagonistic vs synergistic) and different scenarios for cell-to-cell spread, one with free superinfection and another with superinfection inhibition. We found that the master sequences for populations replicating geometrically and with antagonistic fitness effects vanished at low critical mutation rates. By contrast, the highest critical mutation rate was observed for populations replicating geometrically but with a synergistic fitness landscape. Our simulations also showed that for stamping machine replication and antagonistic epistasis, a combination that appears to be common among plant viruses, populations further increased their robustness by inhibiting superinfection. We have also shown that the mode of replication strongly influenced the linkage between viral loci, which rapidly reached linkage equilibrium at increasing mutations for geometric replication. We also found that the strategy that minimized the time required to spread over the whole space was the stamping machine with antagonistic epistasis among mutations. Finally, our simulations revealed that the multiplicity of infection fluctuated but generically increased along time

Does Mutational Robustness Inhibit Extinction by Lethal Mutagenesis in Viral Populations?

Lethal mutagenesis is a promising new antiviral therapy that kills a virus by raising its mutation rate. One potential shortcoming of lethal mutagenesis is that viruses may resist the treatment by evolving genomes with increased robustness to mutations. Here, we investigate to what extent mutational robustness can inhibit extinction by lethal mutagenesis in viruses, using both simple toy models and more biophysically realistic models based on RNA secondary-structure folding. We show that although the evolution of greater robustness may be promoted by increasing the mutation rate of a viral population, such evolution is unlikely to greatly increase the mutation rate required for certain extinction. Using an analytic multi-type branching process model, we investigate whether the evolution of robustness can be relevant on the time scales on which extinction takes place. We find that the evolution of robustness matters only when initial viral population sizes are small and deleterious mutation rates are only slightly above the level at which extinction can occur. The stochastic calculations are in good agreement with simulations of self-replicating RNA sequences that have to fold into a specific secondary structure to reproduce. We conclude that the evolution of mutational robustness is in most cases unlikely to prevent the extinction of viruses by lethal mutagenesis

The relationship between the error catastrophe, survival of the flattest, and natural selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The quasispecies model is a general model of evolution that is generally applicable to replication up to high mutation rates. It predicts that at a sufficiently high mutation rate, quasispecies with higher mutational robustness can displace quasispecies with higher replicative capacity, a phenomenon called "survival of the flattest". In some fitness landscapes it also predicts the existence of a maximum mutation rate, called the error threshold, beyond which the quasispecies enters into error catastrophe, losing its genetic information. The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between survival of the flattest and the transition to error catastrophe, as well as the connection between these concepts and natural selection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By means of a very simplified model, we show that the transition to an error catastrophe corresponds to a value of zero for the selective coefficient of the mutant phenotype with respect to the master phenotype, indicating that transition to the error catastrophe is in this case similar to the selection of a more robust species. This correspondence has been confirmed by considering a single-peak landscape in which sequences are grouped with respect to their Hamming distant from the master sequence. When the robustness of a classe is changed by modification of its quality factor, the distribution of the population changes in accordance with the new value of the robustness, although an error catastrophe can be detected at the same values as in the general case. When two quasispecies of different robustness competes with one another, the entry of one of them into error catastrophe causes displacement of the other, because of the greater robustness of the former. Previous works are explicitly reinterpreted in the light of the results obtained in this paper.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The main conclusion of this paper is that the entry into error catastrophe is a specific case of survival of the flattest acting on phenotypes that differ in the trade-off between replicative ability and mutational robustness. In fact, entry into error catastrophe occurs when the mutant phenotype acquires a selective advantage over the master phenotype. As both entry into error catastrophe and survival of the flattest are caused by natural selection when mutation rate is increased, we propose differentiating between them by the level of selection at which natural selection acts. So we propose to consider the transition to error catastrophe as a phenomenon of intra-quasispecies selection, and survival of the flattest as a phenomenon of inter-quasispecies selection.</p

Critical mutation rate has an exponential dependence on population size for eukaryotic-length genomes with crossover

The critical mutation rate (CMR) determines the shift between survival-of-the-fittest and survival of individuals with greater mutational robustness (“flattest”). We identify an inverse relationship between CMR and sequence length in an in silico system with a two-peak fitness landscape; CMR decreases to no more than five orders of magnitude above estimates of eukaryotic per base mutation rate. We confirm the CMR reduces exponentially at low population sizes, irrespective of peak radius and distance, and increases with the number of genetic crossovers. We also identify an inverse relationship between CMR and the number of genes, confirming that, for a similar number of genes to that for the plant Arabidopsis thaliana (25,000), the CMR is close to its known wild-type mutation rate; mutation rates for additional organisms were also found to be within one order of magnitude of the CMR. This is the first time such a simulation model has been assigned input and produced output within range for a given biological organism. The decrease in CMR with population size previously observed is maintained; there is potential for the model to influence understanding of populations undergoing bottleneck, stress, and conservation strategy for populations near extinction

Natural Selection Fails to Optimize Mutation Rates for Long-Term Adaptation on Rugged Fitness Landscapes

The rate of mutation is central to evolution. Mutations are required for adaptation, yet most mutations with phenotypic effects are deleterious. As a consequence, the mutation rate that maximizes adaptation will be some intermediate value. Here, we used digital organisms to investigate the ability of natural selection to adjust and optimize mutation rates. We assessed the optimal mutation rate by empirically determining what mutation rate produced the highest rate of adaptation. Then, we allowed mutation rates to evolve, and we evaluated the proximity to the optimum. Although we chose conditions favorable for mutation rate optimization, the evolved rates were invariably far below the optimum across a wide range of experimental parameter settings. We hypothesized that the reason that mutation rates evolved to be suboptimal was the ruggedness of fitness landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we created a simplified landscape without any fitness valleys and found that, in such conditions, populations evolved near-optimal mutation rates. In contrast, when fitness valleys were added to this simple landscape, the ability of evolving populations to find the optimal mutation rate was lost. We conclude that rugged fitness landscapes can prevent the evolution of mutation rates that are optimal for long-term adaptation. This finding has important implications for applied evolutionary research in both biological and computational realms

Genome-Wide SNP-genotyping array to study the evolution of the human pathogen Vibrio vulnificus Biotype 3

Vibrio vulnificus is an aquatic bacterium and an important human pathogen. Strains Of V. vulnificus are classified into three different biotypes. The newly emerged biotype 3 has been found to be clonal and restricted to Israel. In the family Vibrionaceae , horizontal gene transfer is the main mechanism responsible for the emergence of new pathogen groups. To better understand the evolution of the bacterium, and in particular to trace the evolution of biotype 3, we performed genome-wide SNP genotyping of 254 clinical and environmental V. vulnificus isolates with worldwide distribution recovered over a 30-year period, representing all phylogeny groups. A custom single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array implemented on the Illumina GoldenGate platform was developed based on 570 SNPs randomly distributed throughout the genome. In general, the genotyping results divided the V. vulnificus species into three main phylogenetic lineages and an additional subgroup, clade B, consisting of environmental and clinical isolates from Israel. Data analysis suggested that 69% of biotype 3 SNPs are similar to SNPs from clade B, indicating that biotype 3 and clade B have a common ancestor. The rest of the biotype 3 SNPs were scattered along the biotype 3 genome, probably representing multiple chromosomal segments that may have been horizontally inserted into the clade B recipient core genome from other phylogroups or bacterial species sharing the same ecological niche. Results emphasize the continuous evolution of V. vulnificus and support the emergence of new pathogenic groups within this species as a recurrent phenomenon. Our findings contribute to a broader understanding of the evolution of this human pathogen

Quantifying the Adaptive Potential of an Antibiotic Resistance Enzyme

For a quantitative understanding of the process of adaptation, we need to understand its “raw material,” that is, the frequency and fitness effects of beneficial mutations. At present, most empirical evidence suggests an exponential distribution of fitness effects of beneficial mutations, as predicted for Gumbel-domain distributions by extreme value theory. Here, we study the distribution of mutation effects on cefotaxime (Ctx) resistance and fitness of 48 unique beneficial mutations in the bacterial enzyme TEM-1 β-lactamase, which were obtained by screening the products of random mutagenesis for increased Ctx resistance. Our contributions are threefold. First, based on the frequency of unique mutations among more than 300 sequenced isolates and correcting for mutation bias, we conservatively estimate that the total number of first-step mutations that increase Ctx resistance in this enzyme is 87 [95% CI 75–189], or 3.4% of all 2,583 possible base-pair substitutions. Of the 48 mutations, 10 are synonymous and the majority of the 38 non-synonymous mutations occur in the pocket surrounding the catalytic site. Second, we estimate the effects of the mutations on Ctx resistance by determining survival at various Ctx concentrations, and we derive their fitness effects by modeling reproduction and survival as a branching process. Third, we find that the distribution of both measures follows a Fréchet-type distribution characterized by a broad tail of a few exceptionally fit mutants. Such distributions have fundamental evolutionary implications, including an increased predictability of evolution, and may provide a partial explanation for recent observations of striking parallel evolution of antibiotic resistance

Transdiagnostic dimensions of psychopathology at first episode psychosis: findings from the multinational EU-GEI study

BACKGROUND: The value of the nosological distinction between non-affective and affective psychosis has frequently been challenged. We aimed to investigate the transdiagnostic dimensional structure and associated characteristics of psychopathology at First Episode Psychosis (FEP). Regardless of diagnostic categories, we expected that positive symptoms occurred more frequently in ethnic minority groups and in more densely populated environments, and that negative symptoms were associated with indices of neurodevelopmental impairment. METHOD: This study included 2182 FEP individuals recruited across six countries, as part of the EUropean network of national schizophrenia networks studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) study. Symptom ratings were analysed using multidimensional item response modelling in Mplus to estimate five theory-based models of psychosis. We used multiple regression models to examine demographic and context factors associated with symptom dimensions. RESULTS: A bifactor model, composed of one general factor and five specific dimensions of positive, negative, disorganization, manic and depressive symptoms, best-represented associations among ratings of psychotic symptoms. Positive symptoms were more common in ethnic minority groups. Urbanicity was associated with a higher score on the general factor. Men presented with more negative and less depressive symptoms than women. Early age-at-first-contact with psychiatric services was associated with higher scores on negative, disorganized, and manic symptom dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the bifactor model of psychopathology holds across diagnostic categories of non-affective and affective psychosis at FEP, and demographic and context determinants map onto general and specific symptom dimensions. These findings have implications for tailoring symptom-specific treatments and inform research into the mood-psychosis spectrum

The continuity of effect of schizophrenia polygenic risk score and patterns of cannabis use on transdiagnostic symptom dimensions at first-episode psychosis: findings from the EU-GEI study

Diagnostic categories do not completely reflect the heterogeneous expression of psychosis. Using data from the EU-GEI study, we evaluated the impact of schizophrenia polygenic risk score (SZ-PRS) and patterns of cannabis use on the transdiagnostic expression of psychosis. We analysed first-episode psychosis patients (FEP) and controls, generating transdiagnostic dimensions of psychotic symptoms and experiences using item response bi-factor modelling. Linear regression was used to test the associations between these dimensions and SZ-PRS, as well as the combined effect of SZ-PRS and cannabis use on the dimensions of positive psychotic symptoms and experiences. We found associations between SZ-PRS and (1) both negative (B = 0.18; 95%CI 0.03–0.33) and positive (B = 0.19; 95%CI 0.03–0.35) symptom dimensions in 617 FEP patients, regardless of their categorical diagnosis; and (2) all the psychotic experience dimensions in 979 controls. We did not observe associations between SZ-PRS and the general and affective dimensions in FEP. Daily and current cannabis use were associated with the positive dimensions in FEP (B = 0.31; 95%CI 0.11–0.52) and in controls (B = 0.26; 95%CI 0.06–0.46), over and above SZ-PRS. We provide evidence that genetic liability to schizophrenia and cannabis use map onto transdiagnostic symptom dimensions, supporting the validity and utility of the dimensional representation of psychosis. In our sample, genetic liability to schizophrenia correlated with more severe psychosis presentation, and cannabis use conferred risk to positive symptomatology beyond the genetic risk. Our findings support the hypothesis that psychotic experiences in the general population have similar genetic substrates as clinical disorders