Indirect Measures In Evaluation: On Not Knowing What We Don’t Know

Evaluators frequently make use of indirect measures of participant learning or skill mastery, with participants either being asked if they have learned material or mastered a skill or being asked to indicate how confident they are that they know the material or can perform the task in question. Unfortunately, myriad research in social psychology has demonstrated that people are very poor judges of their own levels of accomplishment. In this paper, the social psychological dynamics that contribute to biased self-assessments are overviewed. These include the self-serving bias (e.g., Miller & Ross, 1975), the better-than-average effect (e.g., Alicke et al., 1995; Brown, 1986), and the overconfidence phenomenon (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Methods of correcting these biased reports are generally ineffective, as illustrated by Kruger and Dunning’s (1999) findings that people lowest in mastery generally lack the metacognition even to understand what mastery looks like. As this type of person learns the skill in question, they often realize the level of their ignorance and lower their self-reported knowledge and skill levels. Although indirect measures of participant learning or mastery might tell us something about the level of confidence of the participants, they probably tell us little about actual ability or knowledge. Implications for applied research are discussed. Accessed 8,048 times on https://pareonline.net from February 06, 2012 to December 31, 2019. For downloads from January 1, 2020 forward, please click on the PlumX Metrics link to the right

Personal Beliefs and Public Print: The Influence of Pre-Existing Attitudes and Pretrial Publicity Information on Final Verdicts

Pretrial publicity (PTP), defined as any news story about a case not yet in trial, has been shown to affect trial outcomes. Results, however, are mixed, with studies finding strong effects, others weaker effects, and some no effects. These differences are sometimes attributed to methodology and study stimuli. In the present research, the effect of participant attitudes was explored. Participant attitudes can have a strong influence on perceptions about a piece of information, and could explain differences in use of PTP as well as findings that judicial remedies to alleviate PTP effects are ineffective. Participants were exposed to one of four news articles, containing information on confession, prior record, or resisting arrest, or only neutral information. They took a measure of legal attitudes, including questions relevant to the negative PTP information received, and then read a trial transcript of an assault on a middle-aged man. Participants then received standard jury instructions, a specific admonition to ignore PTP, or a specific admonition with the additional statement that PTP can be unreliable. Results differed by content of PTP. Participants receiving confession PTP assigned higher guilt ratings overall; strong instructions increased guilt ratings and guilty verdicts among participants receiving confession PTP. Participants receiving resisting arrest PTP and specific instructions assigned higher guilt ratings than participants receiving neutral PTP and specific instructions. Finally, among participants receiving prior record PTP, a weak attitude toward a prior record as indicative of guilt and standard instructions resulted in lower guilt ratings than participants receiving neutral PTP; the effects were reversed for participants with a strong attitude that having a prior record indicates guilt. Stronger instructions weakened the effects of attitude and PTP. Results suggest that instructions specifically addressing PTP information may only ameliorate PTP effects in certain situations, and that psychological reactance, thought suppression and ironic processes provide better explanations for use of PTP, despite instructions to discourage use, than belief perseverance. Additionally, the effects of other attitudes specific to the case and the relationship between guilt ratings and verdicts were explored. Future research should continue to explore relationship among attitudes, evidence, PTP, and outcomes

Load following with Small Modular Reactors (SMR): A real options analysis

Load following is the potential for a power plant to adjust its power output as demand and price for electricity fluctuates throughout the day. In nuclear power plants, this is done by inserting control rods into the reactor pressure vessel. This operation is very inefficient as nuclear power generation is composed almost entirely of fixed and sunk costs; therefore, lowering the power output doesn't significantly reduce generating costs and the plant is thermo-mechanical stressed. A more efficient solution is to maintain the primary circuit at full power and to use the excess power for cogeneration. This paper assesses the technical-economic feasibility of this approach when applied to Small Modular Reactors (SMR) with two cogeneration technologies: algae-biofuel and desalinisation. Multiple SMR are of particular interest due to the fractional nature of their power output. The result shows that the power required by an algae-biofuel plant is not sufficient to justify the load following approach, whereas it is in the case of desalination. The successive economic analysis, based on the real options approach, demonstrates the economic viability of the desalination in several scenarios. In conclusion, the coupling of SMR with a desalination plant is a realistic solution to perform efficient load following

An Unusual Hypopharyngeal Foreign Body Causing Dyspnea After Vertebroplasty

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Pushing Mixture of Experts to the Limit: Extremely Parameter Efficient MoE for Instruction Tuning

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) is a widely known neural architecture where an ensemble of specialized sub-models optimizes overall performance with a constant computational cost. However, conventional MoEs pose challenges at scale due to the need to store all experts in memory. In this paper, we push MoE to the limit. We propose extremely parameter-efficient MoE by uniquely combining MoE architecture with lightweight experts.Our MoE architecture outperforms standard parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods and is on par with full fine-tuning by only updating the lightweight experts -- less than 1% of an 11B parameters model. Furthermore, our method generalizes to unseen tasks as it does not depend on any prior task knowledge. Our research underscores the versatility of the mixture of experts architecture, showcasing its ability to deliver robust performance even when subjected to rigorous parameter constraints. Our code used in all the experiments is publicly available here: https://github.com/for-ai/parameter-efficient-moe

Veterans’ experiences of patient-centered care: Learning from guided tours

In this paper the authors seek to examine Veterans’ experiences with patient-centered care (PCC) at 2 United States Veterans Affairs (VA) facilities. The authors conduct their research through a process of guided tours, in which the participant leads the evaluator through an environment and shares thoughts, feelings, and experiences. Tours were conducted in April 2013 with 30 Veterans receiving care at these VA facilities. Via the tours participants discussed aspects of the environment of care, and described some as ‘welcoming,’ while describing others as ‘chaotic.’ Participants provided multiple examples of PCC, frequently defining PCC in terms of accessibility of appointments, continuity and familiarity with providers, and shared decision-making and communication. They highlighted that their identity as Veterans influenced their preferences for care, including efficiency, need for compassion, and consideration of mental and social health needs. Some suggested VA expand upon this idea of shared identity by creating a ‘Veteran community,’ and including increased opportunities for socialization with other Veterans, and access to the arts. The authors conclude that the impact of shared identity on care preferences has received limited attention in the literature; further, the impact of identity may be unique to Veterans, who represent not only a group of patients being seen at the same facilities, but a social group with shared history and characteristics, as well. These results can be utilized to expand implementation of PCC innovations, to improve health and well-being of Veterans

Opposite effects of suicidality and lithium on gray matter volumes in bipolar depression

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Cogeneration: An option to facilitate load following in Small Modular Reactors

Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been historically deployed to cover the base-load of the electricity demand. Nowadays some NPPs might perform daily load cycling operation (i.e. load following) between 50% and 100% of their rated power. With respect to the insertion of control rods or comparable action to reduce the nuclear power generation, a more efficient alternative might be the “Load Following by Cogeneration”, i.e. diverting the excess of power, respect to the electricity demand, to an auxiliary system. A suitable cogeneration system needs: 1. To have a demand of electricity and/or heat in the region of 500 MWe–1.5 GWt; 2. To meet a significant market demand; 3. To have access to adequate input to process; 4. To be flexible: cogeneration might operate at full load during the night when the request of electricity is low, and be turned off during the daytime. From the economic standpoint, it is essential that the investment in the auxiliary system is profitable. This paper provides a techno-economic assessment of systems potentially suitable for coupling with a NPP for load following. The results show that district heating, desalination and hydrogen might be technically and economically feasible

Effect of early stress on hippocampal gray matter is influenced by a functional polymorphism in EAAT2 in bipolar disorder

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Temozolomide treatment inhibits spontaneous motivation for exploring a complex object in mice: a potential role of adult hippocampal neurogenesis in ‘curiosity’.

Intrinsic exploratory biases are an innate motivation for exploring certain types of stimuli or environments over others, and they may be associated with cognitive, emotional, and even personality-like traits. However, their neurobiological basis has been scarcely investigated. Considering the involvement of the hippocampus in novelty recognition and in spatial and pattern separation tasks, this work researched the role of adult hippocampal neurogenesis (AHN) in intrinsic exploratory bias for a perceptually complex object in mice. Spontaneous object preference tasks revealed that both male and female C57BL/6J mice showed a consistent unconditioned preference for exploring “complex”—irregular—objects over simpler ones. Furthermore, increasing objects’ complexity resulted in an augmented time of object exploration. In a different experiment, male mice received either vehicle or the DNA alkylating agent temozolomide (TMZ) for 4 weeks, a pharmacological treatment that reduced AHN as evidenced by immunohistochemistry. After assessment in a behavioral test battery, the TMZ-treated mice did not show any alterations in general exploratory and anxiety-like responses. However, when tested in the spontaneous object preference task, the TMZ-treated mice did not display enhanced exploration of the complex object, as evidenced both by a reduced exploration time—specifically for the complex object—and a lack of preference for the complex object over the simple one. This study supports a novel role of AHN in intrinsic exploratory bias for perceptual complexity. Moreover, the spontaneous complex object preference task as a rodent model of “curiosity” is discussed.This study was funded by Grant PID2020-114374RB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (to C.R.-P. and E.C.-O.). Author P.R. holds a “Miguel Servet I” research contract from the National System of Health, EU-ERDF-ISCIII (CP19/00068). Authors M.C.M.-P. and S.G.-R. hold predoctoral grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (FPU17/00276 to M.C.M.-P. and FPU18/00941 to S.G.-R.). The authors acknowledge the IBIMA's common research support structure—ECAI—of animal experimentation and behavior (“Centro de Experimentación y Conducta Animal”; University of Malaga) for maintenance of the mice and the ECAI of Image for the use of the microscope. We are especially thankful to María Visitación Jacinto Hernández and Vanesa Jiménez Gálvez for their valuable contribution to the behavioral experiments and to Lourdes Sánchez Salido and Ana Mar Gálvez Callejón for their technical support. Open access funding provided by University of Málaga CBUA