Halving poverty in Mexico

We estimate the required time and the minimum necessary growth rate to halve poverty incidence and poverty intensity in Mexico’s rural and urban areas for a series of counterfactual distribution and growth scenarios. Results show that, given the current income distribution, per capita incomes in the rural area would have to grow faster –in some cases eight times faster– than they have done historically to shrink poverty by half by 2015. In contrast, income in the urban sector would have to grow around 1 per cent per year to reach the same goal, which seems a more reasonable outcome given its behavior in past years.economic growth, millennium development goals, poverty goals, poverty measurement, Mexico.

Una Aplicación de la Teoría de Juegos Cooperativos a la Descomposición de la Pobreza en México

El presente artículo estima la descomposición de la variación en la pobreza en México aplicando algunos resultados derivados de la teoría de juegos cooperativos. En particular, se utiliza el enfoque del valor Shapley (Shapley 1953) para estimar la contribución del crecimiento, la distribución del ingreso y los precios en la descomposición. La disminución observada en la familia P_alpha de medidas de pobreza durante el periodo 2000-2008 se asocia principalmente al componente crecimiento. Sin embargo, la distribución del ingreso y la inflación tuvieron un papel preponderante en la dinámica de la pobreza para los subperiodos 2000-2002 y 2006-2008, respectivamente.Pobreza, Descomposición, Valores de Shapley

Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009

This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.public balance, structural balance, business cycles

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Poverty Goals

Este artículo propone una metodología para estimar el tiempo y la tasa de crecimiento necesarios para alcanzar un objetivo de pobreza, dada una serie de distribuciones del ingreso y escenarios de crecimiento contrafactuales. La metodología se puede aplicar a la mayoría de las medidas de pobreza y es ilustrada con datos de Madagascar.\ua

Halving poverty in Mexico

We estimate the required time and the minimum necessary growth rate to halve poverty incidence and poverty intensity in Mexico¿s rural and urban areas for a series of counterfactual distribution and growth scenarios. Results show that, given the current income distribution, per capita incomes in the rural area would have to grow faster -in some cases eight times faster- than they have done historically to shrink poverty by half by 2015. In contrast, income in the urban sector would have to grow around 1 per cent per year to reach the same goal, which seems a more reasonable outcome given its behavior in past years

Estabilización de transferencias federales. Una propuesta para los estados mexicanos basada en el ciclo económico

Se propone un instrumento para suavizar las fluctuaciones cíclicas de las transferencias federales a los estados con base en un fondo de estabilización. El mismo funcionaría mediante el ahorro de ingresos vía participaciones que por encima del promedio reciben los estados en tiempos de expansión económica, recursos que estarían disponibles para amortiguar el descenso de los ingresos en la parte baja del ciclo. Al considerar los tres periodos de expansión más recientes experimentados por la economía mexicana (1993-1994, 1997-2000 y 2006-2008), los resultados del análisis contrafactual muestran que en la expansión más reciente los estados mexicanos pudieron haber ahorrado, en promedio, un monto equivalente a 5 por ciento de los ingresos totales de que dispusieron en el año de inicio de la más reciente recesión, en 2009

TRANSFERENCIAS LOCALES Y ALTERNANCIA PARTIDISTA. Un estudio microeconométrico

Estudiamos empíricamente el efecto que tienen las transferencias locales (públicas y privadas) en la probabilidad de alternancia partidista en el marco de la teoría del clientelismo político y de las teorías de la provisión de bienes públicos con fines electorales en países en desarrollo. Lo anterior según dos perspectivas: la primera alternancia y la alternancia entre gobiernos consecutivos. Para ello empleamos un modelo de duración y otro de panel con variable dependiente discreta. Utilizando datos referentes a los 124 municipios que conforman el estado mexicano de Jalis-co, los principales resultados del modelo de riesgos proporcionales indican que las transferencias privadas resultaron efectivas para evitar la primera alternancia, mientras que las estimaciones en panel muestran que las transferencias públicas son más exitosas en aras de mantener el poder en los municipios analizados entre gobiernos consecutivos