Vacas gordas y vacas flacas: la política fiscal y el balance estructural en México, 1990-2009

Abstract

This study estimates the structural budget balance for the Mexican economy adjusting for both the business cycle and the international oil price for the period 1990-2009. Consistent with earlier studies, our results suggest that fiscal policy has been characterized as procyclical during most of the period. However, we find that it has been countercyclical since late 2008, although to a lesser degree than what indicates the traditional balance. Moreover, we simulate counterfactual scenarios where it is analyzed what would have happened if a fiscal rule were applied on both the structural and the traditional budget balances over the period under study.public balance, structural balance, business cycles