Effective CO2 lifetime and future CO2 levels based on fit function

The estimated global CO2 emission rates and the measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations show that only a certain share of the emitted CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. For given atmospheric emissions of CO2, the effective lifetime determines its accumulation in the atmosphere and, consequently, its impact on the future global warming. We found that on average the inferred effective lifetime of CO2 decreases as its atmospheric concentration increases, reducing the rate of its accumulation in the atmosphere. We derived a power function that fits the varying lifetimes. Based on this fitting function, we calculated the increase of CO2 for different scenarios of future global emission rates

On the two-day oscillations and the day-to-day variability in global 3-D-modeling of the chemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region

International audienceThe integration of the photochemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region brought evidence that the system is able to respond in a nonlinear manner under certain conditions. Under the action of the diurnally-periodic insolation, the system creates subharmonic oscillations or chaos if disregarding strong diffusion, and under special conditions it possesses multiple solutions. The models used in the past were simplified and idealized in view of the number of dimensions and the consideration of the full dynamics. On the basis of our global 3-D-model of the dynamics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere (COMMA-IAP), we also found a nonlinear response in the photochemistry under realistic conditions. The model under consideration is not yet self-consistent, but the chemical model uses the dynamical fields calculated by the dynamic model. From our calculations we got period-2 oscillations of the photochemical system within confined latitudinal regions around the solstices but not during the equinoxes. The consequence of the period-2 oscillation of the chemical active minor constituents is that a marked two-day variation of the chemical heating rates is an important thermal pumping mechanism. We discuss these findings particularly in terms of the influence of realistic dynamics on the creation of nonlinear effects

Long-term trends of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere ? a model study

International audienceWe investigate the influence of the rising concentrations of methane, dinitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial era upon the chemistry of the mesosphere. We use for calculations our global 3D-model COMMA-IAP designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and particularly the extended mesopause region. In order to get approximated data of the solar Lyman-? flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number available since 1749 as the only solar proxy for the Lyman-? flux before 1947. The Lyman-? flux values are employed to determine the water vapor dissociation rate. The water vapor trend analysis utilizes estimated methane trends since the pre-industrial era. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause during the time range of trend calculation. We assume that the hygropause was dryer at the pre-industrial time than currently. As a consequence of the methane oxidation, the middle atmosphere became more humid according to the rising methane concentration, but depending on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km within summery high latitudes, but it becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The growing water vapor concentration increases the hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increasing CO2 concentration enhances slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere, but its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. We discuss the trends particularly in view of the impact on the NLC region

Long-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study

We investigate the influence the rising concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide which have occurred since the pre-industrial era, have had on the chemistry of the mesosphere. For this investigation we use our global 3-D-model COMMA-IAP which was designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and in particular the extended mesopause region. Assumptions and approximations for the trends in the Lyman-α flux (needed for the water vapor dissociation rate), methane and the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause are necessary to accomplish this study. To approximate the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number record which extends back to 1749 and is the only solar proxy available for the Lyman-α flux prior to 1947. We assume that methane increases with a constant growth rate from the pre-industrial era to the present. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of how the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause should be specified during this period. We assume that the hygropause was dryer during pre-industrial times than the present. As a consequence of methane oxidation, the model simulation indicates that the middle atmosphere has become more humid as a result of the rising methane concentration, but with some dependence on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km in summer high latitudes, but becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The enhanced water vapor concentration increases the hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increases in CO<sub>2</sub> concentration enhance slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere. However, its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region

The revised method for retrieving daytime distributions of atomic oxygen and odd-hydrogens in the mesopause region from satellite observations

Atomic oxygen (O) and atomic hydrogen (H) in the mesopause region are critical species, governing chemistry, airglow, and energy budget. However, they cannot be directly measured by satellite remote sensing techniques and so inference techniques, by airglow observations, are used. In this work, we retrieved daytime O and H distributions at ~ 77 km–100 km from the data of observations by the SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) instrument at the TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics) satellite in 2003–2015. The retrieval approach considered the reaction H + O3 → O2 + OH in the ozone balance equation. Moreover, we revised all quenching and spontaneous emission coefficients according to latest published data. We then calculated daytime distributions of OH and HO2 at these altitudes with the use of their conditions of photochemical equilibrium

Greenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds

The responses of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, at the time and place of NLC formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlates positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ∼ 83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplifies the response of water vapour to the solar variability. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive response and a negative response (depending on altitude), which largely cancel each other out. One main finding is that, during NLCs, the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude.</p

Daytime ozone loss term in the mesopause region

For the retrieval of atomic oxygen via ozone observations in the extended mesopause region under sunlight conditions, two assumptions are used: first, the photochemical equilibrium of ozone and, second, that the ozone losses are dominated by ozone's dissociation from solar UV radiation, silently ignoring the O3 destruction by atomic hydrogen. We verify both by 3-D modeling. We found that ozone approaches photochemical equilibrium at 75–100 km for daytime conditions. Hence, the first assumption is valid. However, the reaction of ozone with atomic hydrogen was found to be an important loss process and should not be omitted in retrieving atomic oxygen

Simultaneous in situ measurements of small-scale structures in neutral, plasma, and atomic oxygen densities during the WADIS sounding rocket project

In this paper we present an overview of measurements conducted during the WADIS-2 rocket campaign. We investigate the effect of small-scale processes like gravity waves and turbulence on the distribution of atomic oxygen and other species in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region. Our analysis suggests that density fluctuations of atomic oxygen are coupled to fluctuations of other constituents, i.e., plasma and neutrals. Our measurements show that all measured quantities, including winds, densities, and temperatures, reveal signatures of both waves and turbulence. We show observations of gravity wave saturation and breakdown together with simultaneous measurements of generated turbulence. Atomic oxygen inside turbulence layers shows two different spectral behaviors, which might imply a change in its diffusion properties. © 2019 Author(s)

Atmospheric band fitting coefficients derived from a self-consistent rocket-borne experiment

Based on self-consistent rocket-borne measurements of temperature, the densities of atomic oxygen and neutral air, and the volume emission of the atmospheric band (762&thinsp;nm), we examined the one-step and two-step excitation mechanism of O2b1Σg+ for nighttime conditions. Following McDade et al. (1986), we derived the empirical fitting coefficients, which parameterize the atmospheric band emission O2b1Σg+-X3Σg-0,0. This allows us to derive the atomic oxygen concentration from nighttime observations of atmospheric band emission O2b1Σg+-X3Σg-0,0. The derived empirical parameters can also be utilized for atmospheric band modeling. Additionally, we derived the fit function and corresponding coefficients for the combined (one- and two-step) mechanism. The simultaneous common volume measurements of all the parameters involved in the theoretical calculation of the observed O2b1Σg+-X3Σg-0,0 emission, i.e., temperature and density of the background air, atomic oxygen density, and volume emission rate, is the novelty and the advantage of this work.</p

The Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA)

To explore the various couplings across space and time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past toward a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth system. This paper describes the forward-looking Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next-generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatiotemporal scales, coupling to other Earth system components, and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders