Mathematically Forecasting Stock Prices with Geometric Brownian Motion

Predicting the progression of an unsteady stock market appears to be an impossible task due to the volatile nature of investment portfolios. However, principles such as Geometric Brownian Motion account for random occurrences in a way that can be translated to modeling the stock market. This paper analyzes the Reddy-Clinton equation, a difference equation derived by Krishna Reddy and Vaughan Clinton, with the primary intention of modeling stock price movement over time by utilizing existing metrics. The Reddy-Clinton equation incorporates both a certain and uncertain component to generate a figure which effectively depicts the volatility of the stock market. However, this paper aims to clarify the extent of the unpredictability being accounted for by specifically adjusting ε, the variable representing stochasticity, through an adjusted bell-curve model. Additionally, the model is calculated over multiple iterations, with the resulting values collectively averaged to increase accuracy. The adapted model was applied to the following five stocks of varying sectors: AAPL, OXY, PYPL, MCD, and SPG, and resulted in a MAPE of merely 6.87% over a 6-month period. Overall, the paper proposes an altered rendition of the Reddy-Clinton equation to better account for volatility and output an accurate model of a stock’s performance over a period of time

A rare case of ruptured caesarean scar pregnancy

Caesarean scar pregnancy (CSP) is a rare form of ectopic pregnancy. The incidence is approximately 1:2000 pregnancies and has potentially life-threatening complications. Ours is a rare case of scar ectopic pregnancy who had taken medical termination of pregnancy (MTP) kit while being unaware of her pregnancy location and presented with uterine rupture and hemoperitoneum. A 24-year-old female, P2L2A1, with previous two caesarean section (CS), presented with the complaint of bleeding per vaginum with acute pain abdomen and history of MTP kit intake at 7 weeks’ period of gestation (POG). She received symptomatic treatment at local hospital without any diagnosis being made but brought an ultrasound showing anterior myometrium defect with scar site hematoma and free fluid. She presented with moderate pallor, tachycardia and suprapubic tenderness. She was subsequently taken up for laparotomy in view of probable ruptured CSP. Intra-operatively, actively bleeding scar ectopic was seen with hemoperitoneum. The contents were scooped out and repair done with bilateral tubal ligation. She was resuscitated with adequate blood products. Embryo implantation in the region of a previous CS scar is rare and a delay in either diagnosis or treatment can have catastrophic complications like haemorrhage, rupture and significant maternal morbidity as seen in our case. Therefore, we should have a high index of suspicion of scar pregnancy especially in cases of previous CS so that timely intervention can be done preventing maternal morbidity. Unwarranted use of misoprostol can be deleterious when site of implantation is unknown, particularly in CSP

A cognitive dissonance body image intervention ‘Free Being Me’ delivered by Guide leaders to adolescent Girl Guides in India: A pilot and acceptability trial

This pilot study assessed the acceptability and pre-post intervention effects of a cognitive dissonance-based body image intervention, Free Being Me, delivered by Guide leaders to adolescent girls in India. Girls aged 11-14 years (Mage = 12.6, N = 117), who were members of the national scouting and guiding association of India, received the intervention across five weekly 1-hour group sessions. The primary outcome (body esteem) and secondary outcomes (self-esteem, internalisation of appearance ideals, negative and positive affect, and life disengagement) were measured pre-intervention and immediately post-intervention. The intervention was acceptable. Adolescent girls reported high levels of comfort (89%), enjoyment (90%), and perceived importance (92%) with suggestions for improvement including more interactive activities. Facilitator adherence and competence delivering Free Being Me was rated good. Significant within-groups pre-post intervention improvements in body esteem (Cohen’s d = 0.28) and reductions in internalisation of appearance ideals (Cohen’s d = 0.49) were identified. No changes to self-esteem, negative or positive affect, or life disengagement were observed. This study suggests that Free Being Me is acceptable for community-based delivery and Guide leader format with promising pre-post intervention effects. Going forward, a randomised controlled trial is necessary to make confident interpretations on the effectiveness of Free Being Me

Gallbladder reporting and data system (GB-RADS) for risk stratification of gallbladder wall thickening on ultrasonography:an international expert consensus

The Gallbladder Reporting and Data System (GB-RADS) ultrasound (US) risk stratification is proposed to improve consistency in US interpretations, reporting, and assessment of risk of malignancy in gallbladder wall thickening in non-acute setting. It was developed based on a systematic review of the literature and the consensus of an international multidisciplinary committee comprising expert radiologists, gastroenterologists, gastrointestinal surgeons, surgical oncologists, medical oncologists, and pathologists using modified Delphi method. For risk stratification, the GB-RADS system recommends six categories (GB-RADS 0–5) of gallbladder wall thickening with gradually increasing risk of malignancy. GB-RADS is based on gallbladder wall features on US including symmetry and extent (focal vs. circumferential) of involvement, layered appearance, intramural features (including intramural cysts and echogenic foci), and interface with the liver. GB-RADS represents the first collaborative effort at risk stratifying the gallbladder wall thickening. This concept is in line with the other US-based risk stratification systems which have been shown to increase the accuracy of detection of malignant lesions and improve management. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

Developing Standard Treatment Workflows—way to universal healthcare in India

Primary healthcare caters to nearly 70% of the population in India and provides treatment for approximately 80–90% of common conditions. To achieve universal health coverage (UHC), the Indian healthcare system is gearing up by initiating several schemes such as National Health Protection Scheme, Ayushman Bharat, Nutrition Supplementation Schemes, and Inderdhanush Schemes. The healthcare delivery system is facing challenges such as irrational use of medicines, over- and under-diagnosis, high out-of-pocket expenditure, lack of targeted attention to preventive and promotive health services, and poor referral mechanisms. Healthcare providers are unable to keep pace with the volume of growing new scientific evidence and rising healthcare costs as the literature is not published at the same pace. In addition, there is a lack of common standard treatment guidelines, workflows, and reference manuals from the Government of India. Indian Council of Medical Research in collaboration with the National Health Authority, Govt. of India, and the WHO India country office has developed Standard Treatment Workflows (STWs) with the objective to be utilized at various levels of healthcare starting from primary to tertiary level care. A systematic approach was adopted to formulate the STWs. An advisory committee was constituted for planning and oversight of the process. Specialty experts' group for each specialty comprised of clinicians working at government and private medical colleges and hospitals. The expert groups prioritized the topics through extensive literature searches and meeting with different stakeholders. Then, the contents of each STW were finalized in the form of single-pager infographics. These STWs were further reviewed by an editorial committee before publication. Presently, 125 STWs pertaining to 23 specialties have been developed. It needs to be ensured that STWs are implemented effectively at all levels and ensure quality healthcare at an affordable cost as part of UHC

Lipid profile, plasma apolipoproteins, and risk of a first myocardial infarction among Asians:an analysis from the INTERHEART study

ObjectivesThis study sought to determine the prevalence of lipid and lipoprotein abnormalities and their association with the risk of a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among Asians.BackgroundPatterns of lipid abnormalities among Asians and their relative impact on cardiovascular risk have not been well characterized.MethodsIn a case-control study, 65 centers in Asia recruited 5,731 cases of a first AMI and 6,459 control subjects. Plasma levels of lipids and apolipoproteins in the different Asian subgroups (South Asians, Chinese, Southeast Asians, and Japanese) were determined and correlated with the risk of AMI.ResultsAmong both cases and controls, mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were about 10 mg/dl lower in Asians compared with non-Asians. A greater proportion of Asian cases and controls had LDL-C ≤100 mg/dl (25.5% and 32.3% in Asians vs. 19.4% and 25.3% in non-Asians, respectively). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were slightly lower among Asians compared with non-Asians. There was a preponderance of people with low HDL-C among South Asians (South Asia vs. rest of Asia: cases 82.3% vs. 57.4%; controls 81% vs. 51.6%; p < 0.0001 for both comparisons). However, despite these differences in absolute levels, the risk of AMI associated with increases in LDL-C and decreases in HDL-C was similar for Asians and non-Asians. Among South Asians, changes in apolipoprotein (Apo)A1 predicted risk better than HDL-C. ApoB/ApoA1 showed the strongest association with the risk of AMI.ConclusionsThe preserved association of LDL-C with risk of AMI among Asians, despite the lower baseline levels, suggests the need to rethink treatment thresholds and targets in this population. The low HDL-C level among South Asians requires further study and targeted intervention