Urban public transport regulation in Pakistan

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The Assessment and Mapping of Urban Visual Pollution through an Assembly of Open Source Geospatial Tools

Urban surroundings and spaces are losing their identity due to the visual pollution in the urban panorama of already densely populated cities in the developing countries. Quantitative assessment of visual pollution and its spatial mapping are very recent and relatively un-explored branches of urban studies. The diversity of visual pollution objects (VPOs) and their traits, the subjectivity of observers, the scale of urban space and dependency on subjective variables are the key challenges for quantification during visual pollution assessment (VPA). A paper-based score-card type VPA tool using Analytical Hierarchy Process to addressthese issues has previously been developed. However, considering the challenges associated with the deployment of paper-based tool for VPA (which include the inability to handle variety of data types such as text, numeric, geolocation, images, etc.), the natural progression is the development of a mobile-based solution which matches the fast-growing mobile penetration rate of urban centres and provides a turn-key solution to achieve efficiency and effectiveness in primary data collection. On the other hand, academic research on the spatial mapping of visual pollution has slightly progressed to explore its cartographic dimension. This research presents a spatial decision support system comprising of a combination of open source tools to collect, store and present VPA data for any urban space of any scale. The system employs Open Data Kit (ODK) to build its mobile-based VPA tool which can be used to collect VPO attributes using any Android device. The collected data is streamed to a web-based data management module of the systemin real time which is built upon ODK Aggregate and PostgreSQL. Furthermore, the web-based visualisation module of the system is built upon some other major open source tools including OpenGeo Suite and PHP.The visualisation module presents the results of visual pollution index (VPI) in the form of a web-based dashboard containing real-time choropleth maps which can be filtered for any specific VPO. This research demonstrates the strengths of open geospatial tools to solve challenges of primary data collection on a diverse range of VPOs along with the systematic capturing of their spatial location and visual images. Furthermore, it proves the ability of open source web mapping tools to display visual pollution assessments in most appropriate cartographic representation. Resultantly, it offers the practitioner urban planners a tested mechanism to assess and map the levels of urban visual pollution in an urban space and help them take effective measures to improve the visual image of the city

Post-Flood Rehabilitation of Affected Communities by NGOs in Punjab, Pakistan-Learning Lessons for Future

Flood is one of the most frequently occurring disasters in the world which causes loss of thousands of human lives and properties worth millions of dollars. Pakistan faced severe flood during the year 2010. Most of the damage occurred in Punjab, the most populous province of the country. The federal and provincial governments attempted to rescue people and to restore/provide shelter. But both could not meet public expectations due to lack of institutional capacity and financial resources. In this situation, several NGOs took part in rehabilitation of affected communities on existing as well as new sites. Two of such communities have been taken as case studies. A detailed investigation reveals that NGOs played very effective role in improving living conditions and quality of life in affected communities. Resultantly, a vast majority of residents is satisfied. Some issues pertaining to the rehabilitation process and maintenance of settlements have also surfaced. Nevertheless, the experience of NGOs in this regard demonstrates many attributes of good rehabilitation strategy which are worth considering by other countries.    &nbsp

Application of the Online WhatIf? Planning Support System in Peri-urban Spatial Planning; Case study of Muzaffargarh, Pakistan

Out of South Asian countries, Pakistan is experiencing the fastest urbanization rate where more than half of the population will reside in urban areas after next seven years. Such a rapid transformation in urban areas calls for an extraordinary response from spatial planning agencies. Handling of complex urban phenomena with precision and time efficiency has created the dire need for shifting from manual planning processes to computer-assisted planning approaches. Although, previous studies on spatial planning practices in Pakistan have highlighted the stages and processes where adoption of planning support systems (PSS) can help improve the planning outcomes. However, the use of geospatial technologies and PSS have been quite limited in adoption and undertake by the planning profession. With the advent of Smart Cities renewed awareness and support of data driven approach and tools such as PSS have assisted in bridging this utilization gap. To improve the adoption of PSS in spatial planning, many researchers have emphasized the need for research into understandintg and documenting real world use cases in ofg PSS supported planning. This research documents the case study of Muzaffargarh as the first spatial planning practice in the country’s context where the Online WhatIf? PSS has been synchronized in the plan preparation process and used for the development of planning proposals. While documenting the detailsabout the employment of OWI in the preparation of peri-urban structure plan (PUSP), it captures the processes, opportunities and challenges along with the user feedback. The country context specific procedural details covering the datasets, planning factors and assumptions have been comprehensively explained. It has been ensured that the details are sufficient enough to act as a guide for future plan preparation tasks of similar nature. Similarly, challenges and opportunities have been documented as part of the lessons learnt. This research concludes that the Online WhatIf? (OWI) has demonstrated to be a very good fit in PUSP preparation. This PSS has shown to provide a consistent and structured process to interactively explore, future land development options, which is considered a useful approach in PUSP preparation

A Hybrid Tool for Visual Pollution Assessment in Urban Environments

With increasing focus on more nuanced aspects of quality of life, the phenomenon of urban visual pollution has been progressively gaining attention from researchers and policy makers, especially in the developed world. However, the subjectivity and complexity of assessing visual pollution in urban settings remain a challenge, especially given the lack of robust and reliable methods for quantification of visual pollution. This paper presents a novel systematic approach for the development of a robust Visual Pollution Assessment (VPA) tool. A key feature of our methodology is explicit and systematic incorporation of expert and public opinion for listing and ranking Visual Pollution Objects (VPOs). Moreover, our methodology deploys established empirical complex decision-making techniques to address the challenge of subjectivity in weighting the impact of individual VPOs. The resultant VPA tool uses close-ended options to capture the presence and characteristics of various VPOs on a given node. Based on these inputs, it calculates a point based visual pollution scorecard for the observation point. The performance of the VPA tool has been extensively tested and verified at various locations in Pakistan. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such tool, both in terms of quantitative robustness and broad coverage of VPOs. Our VPA tool will help regulators in assessing and charting visual pollution in a consistent and objective manner. It will also help policy makers by providing an empirical basis for gathering evidence; hence facilitating evidence-based and evidence-driven policy strategies, which are likely to have significant impact, especially in the developing countries

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Problems and Prospects of Curbside Parking in Lahore: PolicyImplications for Effective Management

International audienceLahore is a fast-growing metropolis experiencing rapid growth in people and vehicle population. This unprecedented growth has led to urban sprawl, dependency on motorized transport, and increased parking space demands throughout the city limits. Off-street parking supply is insufficient and the demand is met mainly by roadside parking with and without any authorization. Parking on the roads and sidewalks has resulted in reduction in traffic capacity, traffic speed variation, accidents and disruption in smooth flow of traffic. Though the government has adopted measures in the past to streamline roadside parking activities, these efforts have proved counter-productive. This paper provides a critical analysis of the existing parking situation in Lahore based on detailed surveys and interviews. It presents an assessment of the functional performance of selected parking sites located at various roads. The findings not only provide significant evidence of the problems caused by haphazard curbside parking but also highlight its prospects if managed properly. The paper argues that absence of by-laws governing curbside parking, weak institutions, and inadequate public transport are the main causes of prevailing parking crisis. It concludes that development of curbside parking regulations in line with urban transport policy is a first step towards managing existing and future curbside parking resources in Lahore

Problems and Prospects of Curbside Parking in Lahore: PolicyImplications for Effective Management

Lahore is a fast-growing metropolis experiencing rapid growth in people and vehicle population. This unprecedented growth has led to urban sprawl, dependency on motorized transport, and increased parking space demands throughout the city limits. Off-street parking supply is insufficient and the demand is met mainly by roadside parking with and without any authorization. Parking on the roads and sidewalks has resulted in reduction in traffic capacity, traffic speed variation, accidents and disruption in smooth flow of traffic. Though the government has adopted measures in the past to streamline roadside parking activities, these efforts have proved counter-productive. This paper provides a critical analysis of the existing parking situation in Lahore based on detailed surveys and interviews. It presents an assessment of the functional performance of selected parking sites located at various roads. The findings not only provide significant evidence of the problems caused by haphazard curbside parking but also highlight its prospects if managed properly. The paper argues that absence of by-laws governing curbside parking, weak institutions, and inadequate public transport are the main causes of prevailing parking crisis. It concludes that development of curbside parking regulations in line with urban transport policy is a first step towards managing existing and future curbside parking resources in Lahore