Forcing mechanisms behind variations in TOC concentration of lake waters Forcing mechanisms behind variations in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration of lake waters during the past eight centuries – palaeolimnological evidence from southern Sweden Forcing mechanisms behind variations in TOC concentration of lake waters

International audienceDecadal-scale variations in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in lake water since AD 1200 in two small lakes in southern Sweden were reconstructed based on visible-near infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS) of their recent sediment successions. In order to assess the impacts of local land-use changes and regional variations in 5 sulphur deposition and climate on the inferred changes in TOC concentration, the same sediment records were subjected to multi-proxy palaeolimnological analyses. Changes in lake-water pH were inferred from diatom analysis, whereas pollen-based land-use reconstructions (Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm) together with geo-chemical records provided information on catchment-scale environmental changes, 10 and comparisons were made with available records of climate and population density. Our long-term reconstructions reveal that TOC concentrations were generally high prior to AD 1900, with second-order variations coupled mainly to changes in agricultural land-use intensity. The last century showed significant changes, and unusually low TOC concentrations were recorded in 1930–1990, followed by a recent increase. Vari-15 ations in sulphur emissions, with an increase in the early 1900s to a peak around AD 1980 and a subsequent decrease, were most likely the main driver of these dynamics, although processes related to the introduction of modern forestry and recent increases in precipitation and temperature may have contributed. The increase in lake-water TOC concentration from around AD 1980 may therefore reflect a recovery process. Given 20 that the effects of sulphate deposition now subside, other forcing mechanisms related to land management and climate change will possibly become the main drivers of TOC concentration changes in boreal lake waters in the future

Historical TOC concentration minima during peak sulfur deposition in two Swedish lakes

International audienceDecadal-scale variations in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in lake water since AD 1200 in two small lakes in southern Sweden were reconstructed based on visible–near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS) of their recent sediment successions. In order to assess the impacts of local land-use changes, regional variations in sulfur, and nitrogen deposition and climate variations on the inferred changes in TOC concentration, the same sediment records were subjected to multi-proxy palaeolimnological analyses. Changes in lake-water pH were inferred from diatom analysis , whereas pollen-based land-use reconstructions (Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm) together with geochemical records provided information on catchment-scale environmental changes, and comparisons were made with available records of climate and population density. Our long-term reconstructions reveal that inferred lake-water TOC concentrations were generally high prior to AD 1900, with additional variability coupled mainly to changes in forest cover and agricultural land-use intensity. The last century showed significant changes, and unusually low TOC concentrations were inferred at AD 1930–1990, followed by a recent increase , largely consistent with monitoring data. Variations in sulfur emissions, with an increase in the early 1900s to a peak around AD 1980 and a subsequent decrease, were identified as an important driver of these dynamics at both sites, while processes related to the introduction of modern forestry and recent increases in precipitation and temperature may have contributed, but the effects differed between the sites. The increase in lake-water TOC concentration from around AD 1980 may therefore reflect a recovery process. Given that the effects of sulfur deposition now subside and that the recovery of lake-water TOC concentrations has reached pre-industrial levels, other forcing mechanisms related to land management and climate change may become the main drivers of TOC concentration changes in boreal lake waters in the future

Two hundred years of land-use change in the South Swedish Uplands : comparison of historical map-based estimates with a pollen-based reconstruction using the landscape reconstruction algorithm

International audienceLong-term records of environmental history at decadal to millennial timescales enable an assessment of ecosystem variability and responses to past anthropogenic disturbances and are fundamental for the development of environmental management strategies. This study examines the local variability of land-use history in the South Swedish Uplands over the last 200 years based on pollen records from three lake-sediment successions. Temporal changes in the proportional cover of 14 plant taxa were quantified as percentages using the landscape reconstruction algorithm (LRA). The LRA-based estimates of the extent of four land-use categories (cropland, meadows/grassland, wetland, outland/woodland) were compared to corresponding estimates based on historical maps and aerial photographs from AD 1769–1823, 1837–1895, 1946 and 2005. Although the LRA approach tends to overestimate grassland cover by 10–30 % for the two earliest time periods, the reconstructed vegetation composition is generally in good agreement with estimates based on the historical records. Subsequently, the LRA approach was used to reconstruct the 200-year history of local land-use dynamics at 20-year intervals around two small lakes. The qualitative assessment of difference approach , which requires fewer assumptions and parameters than LRA for objective evaluation of between-site differences in plant abundances, provides consistent results in general. Significant differences exist in the land-use history between the sites. Local catchment characteristics, such as soil conditions and wetland cover, appear important for the development of human impact on the landscape. Quantifi-cations of past vegetation dynamics provide information on the amplitude, frequency and duration of the land-use changes and their effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems , and should be taken into account when nature conservation strategies are developed

Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic

Historical accounts of the mortality outcomes of the Black Death plague pandemic are variable across Europe, with much higher death tolls suggested in some areas than others. Here the authors use a 'big data palaeoecology' approach to show that land use change following the pandemic was spatially variable across Europe, confirming heterogeneous responses with empirical data.The Black Death (1347-1352 ce) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe's population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic's causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, 'big data palaeoecology', which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death's mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death's mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics

Testing the Effect of Relative Pollen Productivity on the REVEALS Model : A Validated Reconstruction of Europe-Wide Holocene Vegetation

Reliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucial to improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effects of environmental variables and land-use change on ecosystems and biodiversity, and mitigating their effects in the future. We present here the most spatially extensive and temporally continuous pollen-based reconstructions of plant cover in Europe (at a spatial resolution of 1° × 1°) over the Holocene (last 11.7 ka BP) using the 'Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites' (REVEALS) model. This study has three main aims. First, to present the most accurate and reliable generation of REVEALS reconstructions across Europe so far. This has been achieved by including a larger number of pollen records compared to former analyses, in particular from the Mediterranean area. Second, to discuss methodological issues in the quantification of past land cover by using alternative datasets of relative pollen productivities (RPPs), one of the key input parameters of REVEALS, to test model sensitivity. Finally, to validate our reconstructions with the global forest change dataset. The results suggest that the RPPs.st1 (31 taxa) dataset is best suited to producing regional vegetation cover estimates for Europe. These reconstructions offer a long-term perspective providing unique possibilities to explore spatial-temporal changes in past land cover and biodiversity

Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic

The Black Death (1347–1352 CE) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe’s population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic’s causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, ‘big data palaeoecology’, which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death’s mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death’s mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics.The authors acknowledge the following funding sources: Max Planck Independent Research Group, Palaeo-Science and History Group (A.I., A.M. and C.V.); Estonian Research Council #PRG323, PUT1173 (A.Pos., T.R., N.S. and S.V.); European Research Council #FP7 263735 (A.Bro. and A.Plu.), #MSC 655659 (A.E.); Georgetown Environmental Initiative (T.N.); Latvian Council of Science #LZP-2020/2-0060 (N.S. and N.J.); LLNL-JRNL-820941 (I.T.); NSF award #GSS-1228126 (S.M.); Polish-Swiss Research Programme #013/2010 CLIMPEAT (M.Lam.), #086/2010 CLIMPOL (A.W.); Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education #N N306 275635 (M.K.); Polish National Science Centre #2019/03/X/ST10/00849 (M.Lam.), #2015/17/B/ST10/01656 (M.Lam.), #2015/17/B/ST10/03430 (M.Sło.), #2018/31/B/ST10/02498 (M.Sło.), #N N304 319636 (A.W.); SCIEX #12.286 (K.Mar.); Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness #REDISCO-HAR2017-88035-P (J.A.L.S.); Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports #FPU16/00676 (R.L.L.); Swedish Research Council #421-2010-1570 (P.L.), #2018-01272 (F.C.L. and A.S.); Volkswagen Foundation Freigeist Fellowship Dantean Anomaly (M.B.), Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation #RTI2018-101714-B-I00 (F.A.S. and D.A.S.), OP RDE, MEYS project #CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000728 (P.P.)Peer reviewe

Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic

The Black Death (1347–1352 CE) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe’s population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic’s causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, ‘big data palaeoecology’, which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death’s mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death’s mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics

Pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of plant cover : LRA with examples II : applications of REVEALS and LOVE in S Sweden

International audienc

Regional and local vegetation reconstructions-applications for revealing biodiversity dynamics

International audienceHow has land use and land cover changed on different temporal and spatial scales, and how have these changes influenced biodiversity during the last 3000 years? Our working hypothesis is that biodiversity is favoured by variations in intensity and frequency of human activities such as clearing of forests, increased grazing and abandonment caused by population reduction due to e.g. epidemics or wars. To test the hypothesis, itis crucial to obtain records of vegetation changes with detailed time resolution and, moreover, to be able to set the spatial scale.Our study area is located in Småland in southern Sweden, and high resolution pollen analyses of sediment cores from large and small lakes are used for quantitative reconstruction of past land cover. Here we present our project and the primary methods that will be used. We also present some preliminary results and the following steps in the project