International Policy Instrument Prominence in the Climate Change Debate: A Case Study of the United States

This paper explores the factors influencing the types of policy instruments seriously considered and actively promoted by US policymakers over time in the climate change debate. A variant on Kingdon's model is used to describe how these factors and actor groups affect the pool of instrument considered-not only influencing which instruments go into the pool but also which ones bubble to the top and which ones sink to the bottom in prominence. In the model presented in this paper the following three process streams coupled with influence of time and historical experience determine the prominence of individual policy instruments in the pool: (1) a "politics/economics" stream which contains contextual factors (such as national mood and macroeconomic conditions) that constrain the type of policy instruments policymakers can consider; (2) a "policy options" stream which generates and promotes particular policy instruments; and (3) an "issues" stream which contains the policy goals faced by policymakers at the time. Actor groups can affect any of these streams and can act as "policy entrepreneurs" by advocating the use or disuse of certain instruments. With regard to formal (i.e., report-like) assessments, this paper finds that although formal assessments have seemingly had little direct impact on US policy responses in the past, it is not the case that they have had no indirect impact or will not have a larger direct impact in the future. This lack of direct impact could be explained by (a) the primary use of alternative channels of information (e.g., advisors, briefings, memos) by policymakers; (b) the lack of attention given in assessments to the contextual factors constraining policy instrument choice; (c) the discrepancies between the goals assumed by assessors (e.g., a specific environmental goal) and the actual goals faced by policymakers; and (d) the assessment's intended audience

Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960’s has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. Most attention in the literature is given to crop yields (Guiteras, 2009; Fishman, 2012; Auffhammer et al, 2011) and their ability to withstand precipitation shocks, in the presence of irrigation (Fishman, 2012). However, there remains limited evidence about how natural weather variability and realized irrigation outcomes are related. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world’s most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed crop-wise agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years from 1970-2004 for 311 districts across 19 major agricultural states in India. The source of agricultural data comes from the Village Dynamics in South Asia database at the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Weather data is sourced from the only long term continental scale daily observationally gridded precipitation and temperature dataset called APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation- Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources), that captures the spatial extent of the monsoon across the Himalayas, South and South-East Asia, and the Middle East in great detail. We use panel data approaches to control for unobserved and omitted variables that can confound the true impacts of weather variability on irrigation. Exploiting the exogenous inter-annual variability in the monsoon, our multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability but differentially so for shallow dug wells and deep tube wells. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas using three different bias-corrected climate model projections of monsoon climate for the years 2010 – 2050 under the strongest warming scenario ( business as usual scenario) RCP-8.5 from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, such as the Water Balance Model, that tracks water use and exchange between the ground, atmosphere, runoff and stream networks. This enables us to quantify supply of water required to meet irrigation needs from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, as well as unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. Preliminary results show that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements. By combining the strengths of the economic and hydrology components, this work highlights potential sustainable or unsustainable water use trajectories that different regions within India will face

Carbon taxes and India

Using the Indian module of the Second Generation Model 9SGM, we explore a reference case and three scenarios in which greenhouse gas emissions were controlled. Two alternative policy instruments (carbon taxes and tradable permits) were analyzed to determine comparative costs of stabilizing emissions at (1) 1990 levels (the 1 X case), (2) two times the 1990 levels (the 2X case), and (3) three times the 1990 levels (the 3X case). The analysis takes into account India`s rapidly growing population and the abundance of coal and biomass relative to other fuels. We also explore the impacts of a global tradable permits market to stabilize global carbon emissions on the Indian economy under the following two emissions allowance allocation methods: (1) {open_quotes}Grandfathered emissions{close_quotes}: emissions allowances are allocated based on 1990 emissions. (2) {open_quotes}Equal per capita emissions{close_quotes}: emissions allowances are allocated based on share of global population. Tradable permits represent a lower cost method to stabilize Indian emissions than carbon taxes, i.e., global action would benefit India more than independent actions

Chapter 6 - Assessing transformation pathways

Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at any level will require deep reductions in GHG emissions. Net global CO2 emissions, in particular, must eventually be brought to or below zero. Emissions reductions of this magnitude will require large-scale transformations in human societies, from the way that we produce and consume energy to how we use the land surface. The more ambitious the stabilization goal, the more rapid this transformation must occur. A natural question in this context is what will be the transformation pathway toward stabilization; that is, how do we get from here to there? The topic of this chapter is transformation pathways. The chapter is motivated primarily by three questions. First, what are the near-term and future choices that define transformation pathways including, for example, the goal itself, the emissions pathway to the goal, the technologies used for and sectors contributing to mitigation, the nature of international coordination, and mitigation policies? Second, what are the key decision making outcomes of different transformation pathways, including the magnitude and international distribution of economic costs and the implications for other policy objectives such as those associated with sustainable development? Third, how will actions taken today influence the options that might be available in the future? Two concepts are particularly important for framing any answers to these questions. The first is that there is no single pathway to stabilization of GHG concentrations at any level. Instead, the literature elucidates a wide range of transformation pathways. Choices will govern which pathway is followed. These choices include, among other things, the long-term stabilization goal, the emissions pathway to meet that goal, the degree to which concentrations might temporarily overshoot the goal, the technologies that will be deployed to reduce emissions, the degree to which mitigation is coordinated across countries, the policy approaches used to achieve these goals within and across countries, the treatment of land use, and the manner in which mitigation is meshed with other policy objectives such as sustainable development. The second concept is that transformation pathways can be distinguished from one another in important ways. Weighing the characteristics of different pathways is the way in which deliberative decisions about transformation pathways would be made. Although measures of aggregate economic implications have often been put forward as key deliberative decision making factors, these are far from the only characteristics that matter for making good decisions. Transformation pathways inherently involve a range of tradeoffs that link to other national and policy objectives such as energy and food security, the distribution of economic costs, local air pollution, other environmental factors associated with different technology solutions (e.g., nuclear power, coal-fired carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)), and economic competitiveness. Many of these fall under the umbrella of sustainable development. A question that is often raised about particular stabilization goals and transformation pathways to those goals is whether the goals or pathways are "feasible". In many circumstances, there are clear physical constraints that can render particular long-term goals physically impossible. For example, if additinional mitigation beyond that of today is delayed to a large enough degree and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options are not available (see Section 6.9), a goal of reaching 450 ppm CO2eq by the end of the 21st century can be physically impossible. However, in many cases, statements about feasibility are bound up in subjective assessments of the degree to which other characteristics of particular transformation pathways might influence the ability or desire of human societies to follow them. Important characteristics include economic implications, social acceptance of new technologies that underpin particular transformation pathways, the rapidity at which social and technological systems would need to change to follow particular pathways, political feasibility, and linkages to other national objectives. A primary goal of this chapter is to illuminate these characteristics of transformation pathways

Annex 2 - Metrics and methodology

This annex on methods and metrics provides background information on material used in the Working Group III Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (WGIII AR5). The material presented in this annex documents metrics, methods, and common data sets that are typically used across multiple chapters of the report. The annex is composed of three parts: Part I introduces standards metrics and common definitions adopted in the report; Part II presents methods to derive or calculate certain quantities used in the report; and Part III provides more detailed background information about common data sources that go beyond what can be included in the chapters. While this structure may help readers to navigate through the annex, it is not possible in all cases to unambiguously assign a certain topic to one of these parts, naturally leading to some overlap between the parts

Hydrogen-like nitrogen radio line from hot interstellar and warm-hot intergalactic gas

Hyperfine structure lines of highly-charged ions may open a new window in observations of hot rarefied astrophysical plasmas. In this paper we discuss spectral lines of isotopes and ions abundant at temperatures 10^5-10^7 K, characteristic for warm-hot intergalactic medium, hot interstellar medium, starburst galaxies, their superwinds and young supernova remnants. Observations of these lines will allow to study bulk and turbulent motions of the observed target and will broaden the information about the gas ionization state, chemical and isotopic composition. The most prospective is the line of the major nitrogen isotope having wavelength 5.65 mm (Sunyaev and Churazov 1084). Wavelength of this line is well-suited for observation of objects at z=0.15-0.6 when it is redshifted to 6.5-9 mm spectral band widely-used in ground-based radio observations, and, for example, for z>=1.3, when the line can be observed in 1.3 cm band and at lower frequencies. Modern and future radio telescopes and interferometers are able to observe the absorption by 14-N VII in the warm-hot intergalactic medium at redshifts above z=0.15 in spectra of brightest mm-band sources. Sub-millimeter emission lines of several most abundant isotopes having hyperfine splitting might also be detected in spectra of young supernova remnants.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, accepted by Astronomy Letters; v3: details added; error fixe

Liberalizing trade in environmental goods and services

We examine the effects of trade liberalization in environmental goods in a model with one domestic downstream polluting firm and two upstream firms (one domestic, one foreign). The upstream firms offer their technologies to the downstream firm at a flat fee. The domestic government sets the emission tax rate after the outcome of R&D is known. The effect of liberalization on the domestic upstream firm's R&D incentive is ambiguous. Liberalization usually results in cleaner production, which allows the country to reach higher welfare. However this increase in welfare is typically achieved at the expense of the environment (a backfire effect)

Universal emission intermittency in quantum dots, nanorods, and nanowires

Virtually all known fluorophores, including semiconductor nanoparticles, nanorods and nanowires exhibit unexplainable episodes of intermittent emission blinking. A most remarkable feature of the fluorescence intermittency is a universal power law distribution of on- and off-times. For nanoparticles the resulting power law extends over an extraordinarily wide dynamic range: nine orders of magnitude in probability density and five to six orders of magnitude in time. The exponents hover about the ubiquitous value of -3/2. Dark states routinely last for tens of seconds, which are practically forever on quantum mechanical time scales. Despite such infinite states of darkness, the dots miraculously recover and start emitting again. Although the underlying mechanism responsible for this phenomenon remains an enduring mystery and many questions remain, we argue that substantial theoretical progress has been made.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures, Accepted versio

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie