Dynamics in choice behavior : the determinants of whether, what and how much to buy

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht das Wahlverhalten von Konsumenten in differenzierten Produktkategorien des Konsumgütermarktes. Ausgangspunkt ist die Beobachtung, dass ein Marketing-Mix nicht nur die aktuellen Reaktionen der Konsumenten, sondern auch die resultierenden Konsequenzen für die Zukunft berücksichtigen muss. So führen insbesondere Preispromotions, welche den größten Anteil des Marketing-Budgets bei Konsumgütern in Anspruch nehmen, oft lediglich zu einer Vorverlagerung der Käufe statt zu einem Mehrabsatz durch Markenwechsel und sind daher durchaus kritisch zu bewerten. Anhand von Haushaltspaneldaten zweier Produktkategorien wird der Einfluss dynamischer Aspekte im Rahmen der Konsumentenentscheidungen hinsichtlich Kaufzeitpunkt, Marken- und Mengenwahl untersucht. Auf Grund kontroverser Diskussionen in der Marketing-Forschung bezüglich der korrekten Modellierung der drei Entscheidungen, steht diese neben der expliziten Spezifikation der Dynamiken im Fokus der Betrachtungen. Die empirischen Analysen sowie die anschließenden Simulationen von Marktszenarien zeigen zunächst die Überlegenheit einer getrennten gegenüber einer gemeinsamen Nutzenfunktion bei der Modellierung der drei Entscheidungen auf. Des Weiteren findet sich in einer Produktkategorie die Abhängigkeit der Preissensitivität der Konsumenten von der in der Vergangenheit beobachteten Häufigkeit von Preispromotions. Die Preissensitivität in der Mengenwahl ist dabei von dieser Häufigkeit wesentlich stärker betroffen als die der Markenwahl, was als Erklärungsansatz für die empirisch beobachtete Vorverlagerung von Käufen gewertet werden kann.This dissertation examines consumers’ choice behavior in frequently moving consumer goods markets. One main feature of these markets is, that the marketing mix today does not only have an immediate impact on consumers’ behavior but also influences their reactions in the longer run: E.g. price promotions, which constitute the major part of manufacturers’ marketing budget, frequently pull forward sales that would have occurred later at full margin and should thus be used with care. Based on household panel data of two product categories, this dissertation analyses the impact of dynamics on consumers’ behavior with respect to the decisions of whether, what and how much to buy. Due to controversial discussions concerning the correct modeling of these decisions, the analyses do not only focus on the explicit specification of the dynamics, but also on the modeling itself. The empirical results as well as the subsequent simulations of marketing scenarios demonstrate the superiority of a separate versus an integrated modeling of the three decisions. Further, in one category consumers’ price sensitivities increase with the frequency of past price promotions. Price sensitivities in the purchase quantity model are here much more influenced than price sensitivities in the brand choice model, providing an explanation for the empirically observed stockpiling phenomenon

Economic Rationality, Risk Presentation, and Retirement Portfolio Choice.

This research studies the propensity of individuals to violate implications of expected utility maximization in allocating retirement savings within a compulsory de- �ned contribution retirement plan. The paper develops the implications and describes the construction and administration of a discrete choice experiment to almost 1200 members of Australias mandatory retirement savings scheme. The experiment �nds overall rates of violation of roughly 25%, and substantial variation in rates, depend- ing on the presentation of investment risk and the characteristics of the participants. Presentations based on frequency of returns below or above a threshold generate more violations than do presentations based on the probability of returns below or above thresholds. Individuals with low numeracy skills, assessed as part of the ex-periment, are several times more likely to violate implications of the conventional expected utility model than those with high numeracy skills. Older individuals are substantially less likely to violate these restrictions, when risk is presented in terms of event frequency, than are younger individuals. The results pose significant questions for public policy, in particular compulsory de�ned contribution retirement schemes, where the future welfare of participants in these schemes depends on quantitative decision-making skills that a signi�cant number of them do not possess.discrete choice; retirement savings; investment risk; household finance; financial literacy

Abnormal clock gene expression and locomotor activity rhythms in two month-old female APPSwe/PS1dE9 mice

In addition to cognitive decline, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is also characterized by agitation and disruptions in activity and sleep. These symptoms typically occur in the evening or at night and have been referred to as ‘sundowning’. These symptoms are especially difficult for carers and there are no specific drug treatments. There is increasing evidence that these symptoms reflect an underlying pathology of circadian rhythm generation and transmission. We investigated whether a transgenic mouse model relevant to AD (APPswe/PS1dE9) exhibits circadian alterations in locomotor activity and expression of clock genes involved in the regulation of the circadian cycle. Female mice at 2 months of age were investigated in their home cage. Results show that the APPswe/PS1dE9 transgene alters levels and patterns in circadian rhythm of locomotor activity. Expression of the clock genes Per1, Per2, Cry1 and Cry2 was found to increase at night compared to day in wild-type control mice in the medulla/pons. This effect was blunted for Cry1 and Cry2 gene expression in APPswe/PS1dE9. In summary, this study suggests altered circadian regulation of locomotor activity is abnormal in female APPswe/PS1dE9 mice and that this alteration has biomolecular analogies in a widely available model of AD. Furthermore, the early age at which these effects are manifest suggests that these circadian effects may precede plaque development. The APPswe/PS1dE9 mouse genetic model may have potential to serve as a tool in understanding the neuropathology of circadian abnormalities in AD and as a model system to test novel therapeutic agents for these symptoms

Economic Rationality, Risk Presentation, and Retirement Portfolio Choice.

This research studies the propensity of individuals to violate implications of expected utility maximization in allocating retirement savings within a compulsory de- �ned contribution retirement plan. The paper develops the implications and describes the construction and administration of a discrete choice experiment to almost 1200 members of Australias mandatory retirement savings scheme. The experiment �nds overall rates of violation of roughly 25%, and substantial variation in rates, depend- ing on the presentation of investment risk and the characteristics of the participants. Presentations based on frequency of returns below or above a threshold generate more violations than do presentations based on the probability of returns below or above thresholds. Individuals with low numeracy skills, assessed as part of the ex-periment, are several times more likely to violate implications of the conventional expected utility model than those with high numeracy skills. Older individuals are substantially less likely to violate these restrictions, when risk is presented in terms of event frequency, than are younger individuals. The results pose significant questions for public policy, in particular compulsory de�ned contribution retirement schemes, where the future welfare of participants in these schemes depends on quantitative decision-making skills that a signi�cant number of them do not possess

FGF21 is an insulin-dependent postprandial hormone in adult humans

Context: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) secretion has been shown to respond directly to carbohydrate consumption, with glucose, fructose and sucrose all reported to increase plasma levels of FGF21 in rodents and humans. However, carbohydrate consumption also results in secretion of insulin. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the combined and independent effects of hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia on total and bioactive FGF21 in the postprandial period in humans, and determine whether this effect is attenuated in conditions of altered insulin secretion and action. Methods: Circulating glucose, insulin, total and bioactive FGF21 and fibroblast activation protein (FAPα) were measured in adults with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D) following an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), and under a series of insulin and glucose clamp conditions and following high fat diet in healthy adults. Results: Circulating total and bioactive FGF21 levels responded acutely to OGTT, and their ratio was attenuated in T2D patients with reduced postprandial insulin response. The clamp studies revealed that insulin but not glucose accounts for the postprandial rise in FGF21. Finally, there was an attenuated rise in FGF21 in response to a high fat dietary intervention that is known to alter insulin-stimulated substrate utilization in metabolically active tissues. Conclusions: Insulin rather than glucose per se increases total and bioactive FGF21 in the postprandial period in adult humans. Understanding the impact of T2D on bioactive FGF21 will have a significant effect upon the efficacy of therapeutic agents designed to target the FGF21 pathway

Fertilidade de um genótipo ovino de origem britânica (Hampshire Down) em dois períodos de acasalamento

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Fertilidade de um genótipo ovino de origem britânica (Hampshire Down) em dois períodos de acasalamento

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