Some Economic Implications of a Federal Ireland. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 97 1974

Economists are frequently accused of building elaborate structures out of the most unlikely set of hypotheses. One cannot help suspecting that this charge will be levelled against this paper which makes no attempt to assess the political probability of any agreement on a Federal relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic. In defense it can be argued that the object of this paper is to examine some of the economic issues that would arise under a federal arrangement while recognising that economic factors are unlikely to be the sole, or dominant, influences in the future political position of Northern Ireland. It would not, of course, be possible to explore every aspect of the economic consequences of a Federal Ireland even under the assumption that the structure of the economy of Northern Ireland and the Republic remains as it is today. Rather we shall have to be content to examine some of the major problems that would face any proposed federation. Thus, to some extent, the bias of this paper will be pessimistic since it will not concentrate on any credit side of the balance sheet. However it must be stated that most of the benefits, if they exist, flow from the assumed dynamic effects of federation; which effects seem to owe more to wishful thinking than an analysis of the present structure of both economies

Seasonality and Unemployment in Ireland. Quarterly Economic Commentary, October 1975

It is widely known that many statistical series exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. That is, they tend to rise or fall according to the time of the year even when the underlying levels of the series are constant. Such seasonal movements are often a reflection of variations in the climate-ice-cream sales peak in the summer and coal-sales peak in the winter-or of traditional holiday periods. Obviously we would wish to remove the seasonal variation in order to examine the underlying trend of any given economic' series. If we do not correct data for seasonality it becomes quite difficult to distinguish between movements which reflect the normal seasonal pattern and other underlying movements

Motivations and Implications of Corporate Tax Inversion

The phenomenon of tax inversion has returned to the public eye as American companies in every sector explore expatriation as a means to avoid the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world. In response to billions of dollars in tax revenue flowing overseas, legislators have proposed dozens of laws over the past four decades aimed at curbing this technique, but to no avail. In 2015 alone, tens of billions of dollars\u27 worth of tax inversion transactions were announced. This thesis analyzes the motivations behind corporate emigration using both legal and economic framework, and models this behavior using Probit analysis. We conclude that run rate tax differentials, rather than the distinction between worldwide and territorial systems, motivate corporate inversion. We suggest that a tax holiday would limit the short-term benefits of expatriation and provide time for a new administration to work with Congress to enact a competitive reduction in the corporate income tax rate

Endovascular Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke Increases Disability-Free Survival, Quality of Life, and Life Expectancy and Reduces Cost

Background: Endovascular thrombectomy improves functional outcome in large vessel occlusion ischemic stroke. We examined disability, quality of life, survival and acute care costs in the EXTEND-IA trial, which used CT-perfusion imaging selection. Methods: Large vessel ischemic stroke patients with favorable CT-perfusion were randomized to endovascular thrombectomy after alteplase versus alteplase-only. Clinical outcome was prospectively measured using 90-day modified Rankin scale (mRS). Individual patient expected survival and net difference in Disability/Quality-adjusted life years (DALY/QALY) up to 15 years from stroke were modeled using age, sex, 90-day mRS, and utility scores. Level of care within the first 90 days was prospectively measured and used to estimate procedure and inpatient care costs (US$reference year 2014). Results: There were 70 patients, 35 in each arm, mean age 69, median NIHSS 15 (IQR 12-19). The median (IQR) disability-weighted utility score at 90 days was 0.65 (0.00-0.91) in the alteplase-only versus 0.91 (0.65-1.00) in the endovascular group (p = 0.005). Modeled life expectancy was greater in the endovascular versus alteplaseonly group (median 15.6 versus 11.2 years, p = 0.02). The endovascular thrombectomy group had fewer simulated DALYs lost over 15 years [median (IQR) 5.5 (3.2-8.7) versus 8.9 (4.7-13.8), p = 0.02] and more QALY gained [median (IQR) 9.3 (4.2-13.1) versus 4.9 (0.3-8.5), p = 0.03]. Endovascular patients spent less time in hospital [median (IQR) 5 (3-11) days versus 8 (5-14) days, p = 0.04] and rehabilitation [median (IQR) 0 (0-28) versus 27 (0-65) days, p = 0.03]. The estimated inpatient costs in the first 90 days were less in the thrombectomy group (average US$15,689 versus US$30,569, p = 0.008) offsetting the costs of interhospital transport and the thrombectomy procedure (average US$10,515). The average saving per patient treated with thrombectomy was US$4,365. c Conclusion: Thrombectomy patients with large vessel occlusion and salvageable tissue on CT-perfusion had reduced length of stay and overall costs to 90 days. There was evidence of clinically relevant improvement in long-term survival and quality of life.Peer reviewe

Association between alcohol and cardiovascular disease: Mendelian randomisation analysis based on individual participant data.

OBJECTIVE: To use the rs1229984 variant in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B gene (ADH1B) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol in cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis of 56 epidemiological studies. PARTICIPANTS: 261 991 individuals of European descent, including 20 259 coronary heart disease cases and 10 164 stroke events. Data were available on ADH1B rs1229984 variant, alcohol phenotypes, and cardiovascular biomarkers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Odds ratio for coronary heart disease and stroke associated with the ADH1B variant in all individuals and by categories of alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Carriers of the A-allele of ADH1B rs1229984 consumed 17.2% fewer units of alcohol per week (95% confidence interval 15.6% to 18.9%), had a lower prevalence of binge drinking (odds ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84)), and had higher abstention (odds ratio 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)) than non-carriers. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower systolic blood pressure (-0.88 (-1.19 to -0.56) mm Hg), interleukin-6 levels (-5.2% (-7.8 to -2.4%)), waist circumference (-0.3 (-0.6 to -0.1) cm), and body mass index (-0.17 (-0.24 to -0.10) kg/m(2)). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower odds of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.90 (0.84 to 0.96)). The protective association of the ADH1B rs1229984 A-allele variant remained the same across all categories of alcohol consumption (P=0.83 for heterogeneity). Although no association of rs1229984 was identified with the combined subtypes of stroke, carriers of the A-allele had lower odds of ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 0.83 (0.72 to 0.95)). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with a genetic variant associated with non-drinking and lower alcohol consumption had a more favourable cardiovascular profile and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease than those without the genetic variant. This suggests that reduction of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, is beneficial for cardiovascular health

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Irish exchange rate policy

Papers presented at the Dublin Economic Workshop's Ninth Annual Policy Conference, Kenmare, 10-12 October1986A hard copy is available in UCD Library at GEN 330.08 IR/UN

The development of the financial sector in Ireland, 1949-72

In the past decade or so there has been a considerable growth of interest in monetary economics. Part of this growth in interest can be attributed to the publication of important official enquiries in the US and the UK - the Commission on Money and Credit and the Radcliffe Report. Another important factor was, perhaps, an inevitable swing back from the excesses of the post-Keynsians who relegated money to a very minor role in the macro-economic process. In recent years also the problems of monetary policy in open economies have been the attention of considerable research and, in a world of internationally mobile capital, balance of payments positions are examined from a monetary, rather than a purely tradeoriented, standpoint

The report of the Commission on Social Welfare

The Report of the Commission on Social Welfare represents a philosophical and economic view of Irish society that since independence has failed to command more than a fraction of popular support. More important, perhaps, the Commission has ignored many of the issues set out in the terms of reference. The report can be summarised very simply - it believes that social welfare payments are too low and that taxes should be increased on public servants, the self-employed including farmers, and those with incomes over #14,700 per annum to pay for these increases. It finds virtually nothing wrong with the social security system - other than the minutiae of operations - and the major recommendations deal with mechanisms for increasing public spending on social welfare. It is difficult to know how to approach a critique of the report so profound is my objection to it. However the best approach might be to comment on each Chapter, laying particular emphasis on those areas where the report errs, either by omission or commission

Productivity, earnings and composition of labour - irish-manufacturing-industries, 1953-1966

In a paper read recently to the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society oflreland by one of the present authors,1 differences in the growth of labour productivity in Irish manufacturing industries over the period 1953 to 1966 were examined. It was found, amongst other things, that movements in output were highly correlated with movements both in labour input and in labour productivity; that there was only a small dispersion among industries in the movements of average labour earnings; and that movements in earnings were not highly correlated with movements in productivity. For the purposes of that paper the measure of labour input was simply numbers employed corrected for changes in hours worked. This paper examines the effect upon the findings when allowance is made, in measuring changes in labour input, for certain changes in the composition of the workforce in the period 1953-1966