Predictive Analytics im Human Capital Management : Status Quo und Potentiale

First Online: 23 December 2015 Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (http://www.nationallizenzen.ch)Unternehmen verfügen mittlerweile über fortgeschrittene analytische Informationssysteme, die es erlauben die wachsenden Datenmengen nahezu automatisiert auszuwerten und Aussagen über zukünftige Entwicklungen zu treffen. Predictive Analytics befinden sie sich im Human Capital Management noch in den Anfängen. Datengetriebene Unternehmen wie Google oder Hewlett-Packard nutzen Predictive Analytics bereits, um Personalbeschaffung und -erhaltung zu verbessern. Obwohl jedoch die Personalbereiche über umfangreiche Daten verfügen, beschränkt sich deren Nutzung nach unserer Erfahrung und einer von uns durchgeführten Befragung in den meisten Fällen immer noch auf reaktives Excel-Reporting und einfachste Prognosen z. B. zur Personalanzahl. Data Mining-Verfahren werden hingegen selten genutzt, obwohl sich daraus für das Human Capital Management und andere Unternehmensbereiche Vorteile ergeben könnten. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir anhand von Praxisbeispielen und ausgewählter Fachliteratur Potentiale von Predictive Analytics im Human Capital Management vor, untersuchen die Verbreitung sowie die Einsatzmöglichkeiten von personalbezogenen Analysen und gehen auch auf die spezifischen Herausforderungen der Nutzung von Personaldaten ein

A two-stage analytical approach to assess sustainable energy efficiency

Administrators and policymakers at regional, national and global level are well aware of the necessity and undeniable benefits of renewable energy for long-term sustainability. In this study, we developed a two-stage analytical methodology to assess the efficiency of energy sources (a combination of various energy sources, mostly based on renewable sources), and Turkey, a country with a variety of renewable energy potential because of its favorable geographic and climatic conditions, was used as an illustrative case. Specifically, in the first stage, we utilized a nonparametric method and a powerful benchmarking tool—Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)—to analyze energy efficiencies for each province. In the second stage, we employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and Tobit regression models to investigate the environmental factors affecting energy efficiency. And then, we used the Charnes-Cooper-Rhodes (CCR) DEA and Tobit regression combination to perform a validation of the findings. The tandem utilization of DEA, OLS, and Tobit regression models allowed us to overcome some of the shortcomings of these methods when they are utilized individually. The results revealed the factors that have direct and positive influence/effect on the efficiencies, which included gross domestic product per-capita, population size, and the amount of energy production from renewable energy sources. The findings also suggested that starting the investments at the less-efficient provinces result in a better overall nationwide technical efficiency. These results can potentially help decision makers to develop and manage energy investment strategies

Improving effectiveness of honeypots: predicting targeted destination port numbers during attacks using J48 algorithm

During recent years, there has been an increase in cyber-crime and cybercriminal activities around the world and as countermeasures, effective attack prevention and detection mechanisms are needed. A popular tool to augment existing attack detection mechanisms is the Honeypot. It serves as a decoy for luring attackers, with the purpose to accumulate essential details about the intruder and techniques used to compromise systems. In this endeavor, such tools need to effectively listen and keep track of ports on hosts such as servers and computers within networks. This paper investigates, analyzes and predicts destination port numbers targeted by attackers in order to improve the effectiveness of honeypots. To achieve the purpose of this paper, the J48 decision tree classifier was applied on a database containing information on cyber-attacks. Results revealed insightful information on key destination port numbers targeted by attackers, in addition to how these targeted ports vary within different regions around the world

A critical analysis of COVID-19 research literature: Text mining approach

Objective: Among the stakeholders of COVID-19 research, clinicians particularly experience difficulty keeping up with the deluge of SARS-CoV-2 literature while performing their much needed clinical duties. By revealing major topics, this study proposes a text-mining approach as an alternative to navigating large volumes of COVID-19 literature. Materials and methods: We obtained 85,268 references from the NIH COVID-19 Portfolio as of November 21. After the exclusion based on inadequate abstracts, 65,262 articles remained in the final corpus. We utilized natural language processing to curate and generate the term list. We applied topic modeling analyses and multiple correspondence analyses to reveal the major topics and the associations among topics, journal countries, and publication sources. Results: In our text mining analyses of NIH’s COVID-19 Portfolio, we discovered two sets of eleven major research topics by analyzing abstracts and titles of the articles separately. The eleven major areas of COVID-19 research based on abstracts included the following topics: 1) Public Health, 2) Patient Care & Outcomes, 3) Epidemiologic Modeling, 4) Diagnosis and Complications, 5) Mechanism of Disease, 6) Health System Response, 7) Pandemic Control, 8) Protection/Prevention, 9) Mental/Behavioral Health, 10) Detection/Testing, 11) Treatment Options. Further analyses revealed that five (2,3,4,5, and 9) of the eleven abstract-based topics showed a significant correlation (ranked from moderate to weak) with title-based topics. Conclusion: By offering up the more dynamic, scalable, and responsive categorization of published literature, our study provides valuable insights to the stakeholders of COVID-19 research, particularly clinicians.3417985

A two‐stage Bayesian network model for corporate bankruptcy prediction

We develop a Bayesian network (LASSO-BN) model for firm bankruptcy prediction. We select fnancial ratios via the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO), establish the BN topology, and estimate model parameters. Our empirical results, based on 32,344 US firms from 1961-2018, show that the LASSO-BN model outperforms most alternative methods except the deep neural network. Crucially, the model provides a clear interpretation of its internal functionality by describing the logic of how conditional default probabilities are obtained from selected variables. Thus our model represents a major step towards interpretable machine learning models with strong performance and is relevant to investors and policymakers

How teachers' practices and students' attitudes towards technology affect mathematics achievement: results and insights from PISA 2012

The present work seeks to deepen the impact of factors linked to the characteristics of teaching practices and students' attitudes towards the use of technology on their performance in mathematics in the process of teaching-learning in the Spanish context. In this sense, this study is a secondary analysis of the PISA 2012 data. Therefore, it is an ex post facto design. Regarding the attitudes and the contextual variables, the results do coincide with the accumulated evidence. However, once these contextual effects have been controlled for, the negative relationship found between the pedagogic strategies used by the teachers and the mathematics score cannot but convey perplexity, since the results relative to student-oriented, formative assessment and teacher-directed instruction are clearly contradictory to the solid previous evidence. The data do not allow us to explain this paradoxical result. We dare to point to a conjecture that we find plausible. All these complex variables are informed through questionnaires responded to by students and require a great degree of inference in the answers. Future studies must consider the complexity of the measured variables as well as the students' perception and understanding of them

Using Data-mining Techniques for the prediction of the severity of road crashes in Cartagena, Colombia

Objective: Analyze the road crashes in Cartagena (Colombia) and the factors associated with the collision and severity. The aim is to establish a set of rules for defining countermeasures to improve road safety. Methods: Data mining and machine learning techniques were used in 7894 traffic accidents from 2016 to 2017. The severity was determined between low (84%) and high (16%). Five classification algorithms to predict the accident severity were applied with WEKA Software (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis). Including Decision Tree (DT-J48), Rule Induction (PART), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The effectiveness of each algorithm was implemented using cross-validation with 10-fold. Decision rules were defined from the results of the different methods. Results: The methods applied are consistent and similar in the overall results of precision, accuracy, recall, and area under the ROC curve. Conclusions: 12 decision rules were defined based on the methods applied. The rules defined show motorcyclists, cyclists, including pedestrians, as the most vulnerable road users. Men and women motorcyclists between 20–39 years are prone in accidents with high severity. When a motorcycle or cyclist is not involved in the accident, the probable severity is low

Predicting postoperative complications for gastric cancer patients using data mining

Gastric cancer refers to the development of malign cells that can grow in any part of the stomach. With the vast amount of data being collected daily in healthcare environments, it is possible to develop new algorithms which can support the decision-making processes in gastric cancer patients treatment. This paper aims to predict, using the CRISP-DM methodology, the outcome from the hospitalization of gastric cancer patients who have undergone surgery, as well as the occurrence of postoperative complications during surgery. The study showed that, on one hand, the RF and NB algorithms are the best in the detection of an outcome of hospitalization, taking into account patients’ clinical data. On the other hand, the algorithms J48, RF, and NB offer better results in predicting postoperative complications.FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UID/CEC/00319/2013