Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

<i>Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense</i> transmitted by a single tsetse fly bite in vervet monkeys as a model of human African trypanosomiasis

Sleeping sickness is caused by a species of trypanosome blood parasite that is transmitted by tsetse flies. To understand better how infection with this parasite leads to disease, we provide here the most detailed description yet of the course of infection and disease onset in vervet monkeys. One infected tsetse fly was allowed to feed on each host individual, and in all cases infections were successful. The characteristics of infection and disease were similar in all hosts, but the rate of progression varied considerably. Parasites were first detected in the blood 4-10 days after infection, showing that migration of parasites from the site of fly bite was very rapid. Anaemia was a key feature of disease, with a reduction in the numbers and average size of red blood cells and associated decline in numbers of platelets and white blood cells. One to six weeks after infection, parasites were observed in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), indicating that they had moved from the blood into the brain; this was associated with a white cell infiltration. This study shows that fly-transmitted infection in vervets accurately mimics human disease and provides a robust model to understand better how sleeping sickness develops

Galactic and Extragalactic Samples of Supernova Remnants: How They Are Identified and What They Tell Us

Supernova remnants (SNRs) arise from the interaction between the ejecta of a supernova (SN) explosion and the surrounding circumstellar and interstellar medium. Some SNRs, mostly nearby SNRs, can be studied in great detail. However, to understand SNRs as a whole, large samples of SNRs must be assembled and studied. Here, we describe the radio, optical, and X-ray techniques which have been used to identify and characterize almost 300 Galactic SNRs and more than 1200 extragalactic SNRs. We then discuss which types of SNRs are being found and which are not. We examine the degree to which the luminosity functions, surface-brightness distributions and multi-wavelength comparisons of the samples can be interpreted to determine the class properties of SNRs and describe efforts to establish the type of SN explosion associated with a SNR. We conclude that in order to better understand the class properties of SNRs, it is more important to study (and obtain additional data on) the SNRs in galaxies with extant samples at multiple wavelength bands than it is to obtain samples of SNRs in other galaxiesComment: Final 2016 draft of a chapter in "Handbook of Supernovae" edited by Athem W. Alsabti and Paul Murdin. Final version available at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20794-0_90-

Seeking legitimacy through CSR: Institutional Pressures and Corporate Responses of Multinationals in Sri Lanka

Arguably, the corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices of multinational enterprises (MNEs) are influenced by a wide range of both internal and external factors. Perhaps most critical among the exogenous forces operating on MNEs are those exerted by state and other key institutional actors in host countries. Crucially, academic research conducted to date offers little data about how MNEs use their CSR activities to strategically manage their relationship with those actors in order to gain legitimisation advantages in host countries. This paper addresses that gap by exploring interactions between external institutional pressures and firm-level CSR activities, which take the form of community initiatives, to examine how MNEs develop their legitimacy-seeking policies and practices. In focusing on a developing country, Sri Lanka, this paper provides valuable insights into how MNEs instrumentally utilise community initiatives in a country where relationship-building with governmental and other powerful non-governmental actors can be vitally important for the long-term viability of the business. Drawing on neo-institutional theory and CSR literature, this paper examines and contributes to the embryonic but emerging debate about the instrumental and political implications of CSR. The evidence presented and discussed here reveals the extent to which, and the reasons why, MNEs engage in complex legitimacy-seeking relationships with Sri Lankan institutions

Challenges for adaptation in agent societies

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/[insert DOIAdaptation in multiagent systems societies provides a paradigm for allowing these societies to change dynamically in order to satisfy the current requirements of the system. This support is especially required for the next generation of systems that focus on open, dynamic, and adaptive applications. In this paper, we analyze the current state of the art regarding approaches that tackle the adaptation issue in these agent societies. We survey the most relevant works up to now in order to highlight the most remarkable features according to what they support and how this support is provided. In order to compare these approaches, we also identify different characteristics of the adaptation process that are grouped in different phases. 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Liquid-gas phase transition in nuclear multifragmentation

The equation of state of nuclear matter suggests that at suitable beam energies the disassembling hot system formed in heavy ion collisions will pass through a liquid-gas coexistence region. Searching for the signatures of the phase transition has been a very important focal point of experimental endeavours in heavy ion collisions, in the last fifteen years. Simultaneously theoretical models have been developed to provide information about the equation of state and reaction mechanisms consistent with the experimental observables. This article is a review of this endeavour.Comment: 63 pages, 27 figures, submitted to Adv. Nucl. Phys. Some typos corrected, minor text change

Recombinant plants provide a new approach to the production of bacterial polysaccharide for vaccines

Bacterial polysaccharides have numerous clinical or industrial uses. Recombinant plants could offer the possibility of producing bacterial polysaccharides on a large scale and free of contaminating bacterial toxins and antigens. We investigated the feasibility of this proposal by cloning and expressing the gene for the type 3 synthase (cps3S) of Streptococcus pneumoniae in Nicotinia tabacum, using the pCambia2301 vector and Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated gene transfer. In planta the recombinant synthase polymerised plant-derived UDP-glucose and UDP-glucuronic acid to form type 3 polysaccharide. Expression of the cps3S gene was detected by RT-PCR and production of the pneumococcal polysaccharide was detected in tobacco leaf extracts by double immunodiffusion, Western blotting and high-voltage paper electrophoresis. Because it is used a component of anti-pneumococcal vaccines, the immunogenicity of the plant-derived type 3 polysaccharide was tested. Mice immunised with extracts from recombinant plants were protected from challenge with a lethal dose of pneumococci in a model of pneumonia and the immunised mice had significantly elevated levels of serum anti-pneumococcal polysaccharide antibodies. This study provides the proof of the principle that bacterial polysaccharide can be successfully synthesised in plants and that these recombinant polysaccharides could be used as vaccines to protect against life-threatening infections

Muscle Fiber Viability, a Novel Method for the Fast Detection of Ischemic Muscle Injury in Rats

Acute lower extremity ischemia is a limb- and life-threatening clinical problem. Rapid detection of the degree of injury is crucial, however at present there are no exact diagnostic tests available to achieve this purpose. Our goal was to examine a novel technique - which has the potential to accurately assess the degree of ischemic muscle injury within a short period of time - in a clinically relevant rodent model. Male Wistar rats were exposed to 4, 6, 8 and 9 hours of bilateral lower limb ischemia induced by the occlusion of the infrarenal aorta. Additional animals underwent 8 and 9 hours of ischemia followed by 2 hours of reperfusion to examine the effects of revascularization. Muscle samples were collected from the left anterior tibial muscle for viability assessment. The degree of muscle damage (muscle fiber viability) was assessed by morphometric evaluation of NADH-tetrazolium reductase reaction on frozen sections. Right hind limbs were perfusion-fixed with paraformaldehyde and glutaraldehyde for light and electron microscopic examinations. Muscle fiber viability decreased progressively over the time of ischemia, with significant differences found between the consecutive times. High correlation was detected between the length of ischemia and the values of muscle fiber viability. After reperfusion, viability showed significant reduction in the 8-hour-ischemia and 2-hour-reperfusion group compared to the 8-hour-ischemia-only group, and decreased further after 9 hours of ischemia and 2 hours of reperfusion. Light- and electron microscopic findings correlated strongly with the values of muscle fiber viability: lesser viability values represented higher degree of ultrastructural injury while similar viability results corresponded to similar morphological injury. Muscle fiber viability was capable of accurately determining the degree of muscle injury in our rat model. Our method might therefore be useful in clinical settings in the diagnostics of acute ischemic muscle injury

Examining the validity and utility of two secondary sources of food environment data against street audits in England

Background: Secondary data containing the locations of food outlets is increasingly used in nutrition and obesity research and policy. However, evidence evaluating these data is limited. This study validates two sources of secondary food environment data: Ordnance Survey Points of Interest data (POI) and food hygiene data from the Food Standards Agency (FSA), against street audits in England and appraises the utility of these data. Methods: Audits were conducted across 52 Lower Super Output Areas in England. All streets within each Lower Super Output Area were covered to identify the name and street address of all food outlets therein. Audit-identified outlets were matched to outlets in the POI and FSA data to identify true positives (TP: outlets in both the audits and the POI/FSA data), false positives (FP: outlets in the POI/FSA data only) and false negatives (FN: outlets in the audits only). Agreement was assessed using positive predictive values (PPV: TP/(TP+FP)) and sensitivities (TP/(TP+FN)). Variations in sensitivities and PPVs across environment and outlet types were assessed using multi-level logistic regression. Proprietary classifications within the POI data were additionally used to classify outlets, and agreement between audit-derived and POI-derived classifications was assessed. Results: Street audits identified 1172 outlets, compared to 1100 and 1082 for POI and FSA respectively. PPVs were statistically significantly higher for FSA (0.91, CI: 0.89-0.93) than for POI (0.86, CI: 0.84-0.88). However, sensitivity values were not different between the two datasets. Sensitivity and PPVs varied across outlet types for both datasets. Without accounting for this, POI had statistically significantly better PPVs in rural and affluent areas. After accounting for variability across outlet types, FSA had statistically significantly better sensitivity in rural areas and worse sensitivity in rural middle affluence areas (relative to deprived). Audit-derived and POI-derived classifications exhibited substantial agreement (p < 0.001; Kappa = 0.66, CI: 0.63 - 0.70). Conclusions: POI and FSA data have good agreement with street audits; although both datasets had geographic biases which may need to be accounted for in analyses. Use of POI proprietary classifications is an accurate method for classifying outlets, providing time savings compared to manual classification of outlets

Monitoring county-level chlamydia incidence in Texas, 2004 – 2005: application of empirical Bayesian smoothing and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chlamydia continues to be the most prevalent disease in the United States. Effective spatial monitoring of chlamydia incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention programs. The objective of this study is to apply Bayesian smoothing and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods to monitor Texas county-level chlamydia incidence rates by examining spatiotemporal patterns. We used county-level data on chlamydia incidence (for all ages, gender and races) from the National Electronic Telecommunications System for Surveillance (NETSS) for 2004 and 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Bayesian-smoothed chlamydia incidence rates were spatially dependent both in levels and in relative changes. Erath county had significantly (p < 0.05) higher smoothed rates (> 300 cases per 100,000 residents) than its contiguous neighbors (195 or less) in both years. Gaines county experienced the highest relative increase in smoothed rates (173% – 139 to 379). The relative change in smoothed chlamydia rates in Newton county was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than its contiguous neighbors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Bayesian smoothing and ESDA methods can assist programs in using chlamydia surveillance data to identify outliers, as well as relevant changes in chlamydia incidence in specific geographic units. Secondly, it may also indirectly help in assessing existing differences and changes in chlamydia surveillance systems over time.</p