Modelling (and forecasting) extremes in time series: A naive approach

In Extreme Value Theory, we are essentially interested in the estimation of quantities related to extreme events. Whenever the focus is in large values, estimation is usually performed based on the largest k order statistics in the sample or on the excesses over a high level u. Here we are interested in modelling (and forecast- ing) extremes in time series. For modelling and forecasting classical time series, Boot.EXPOS is a computational procedure built in the R environment that has revealed to perform quite well in a large number of forecasting competitions. However, to deal with extreme values, a modification of that algorithm needs to be considered and is here under studyN/

Using satellite-based data to facilitate consistent monitoring of the marine environment around Ireland

As an island nation, Ireland needs to ensure effective management measures to protect marine ecosystems and their services, such as the provision of fishery resources. The characterization of marine waters using satellite data can contribute to a better understanding of variations in the upper ocean and, consequently, the effect of their changes on species populations. In this study, nineteen years (1998–2016) of monthly data of essential climate variables (ECVs), chlorophyll (Chl-a), and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (K490) were used, together with previous analyses of sea surface temperature (SST), to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of surface waters around Ireland. The study area was restricted to specific geographically delineated divisions, as defined by the International Council of the Exploration of the Seas (ICES). The results showed that SST and Chl-a were positively and significantly correlated in ICES divisions corresponding to oceanic waters, while in coastal divisions, SST and Chl-a showed a significant negative correlation. Chl-a and K490 were positively correlated in all cases, suggesting an important role of phytoplankton in light attenuation. Chl-a and K490 had significant trends in most of the divisions, reaching maximum values of 1.45% and 0.08% per year, respectively. The strongest seasonal Chl-a trends were observed in divisions VIId and VIIe (the English Channel), primarily in the summer months, followed by northern divisions VIa (west of Scotland) and VIb (Rockall) in the winter months.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Trend tests: a tendency to resampling

Trend analysis is an important problem in time series. Many studies have been developed to investigate this issue, with special attention to its application to environmental and hydrological time series. The presence of autocorrelation and missing observations affects the significance and power of trend tests, parametric or non-parametric. This study assesses the performance of two trend tests, t-test and the Mann-Kendall through an appropriate resampling technique. A new procedure based onsubsampling is proposed in order to assure good statistical properties of these tests. A comparison was established between this new approach and others already developed, such as bootstrap-based tests. In order to evaluate the performance of the new method, a simulation study is conducted considering a set of underlying slopes, different values of autocorrelation and different fractions of randomly missing data. The order of autocorrelation structure is estimated by the best fitting model obtained through the Akaike information criterion. Inspection of the data to detect missing observations is required, before applying the trend tests. In case of missing observations, their estimation and replace is performed by an imputation method available in software.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Avaliação da qualidade da água de um corpo hídrico urbano que deságua na Estação Ecológica de Carijós, Florianópolis/SC

TCC(graduação) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro de Ciências Biológicas. Biologia.Este estudo avaliou a qualidade da água do canal de drenagem pluvial conhecido como canal das Algas, que deságua na Estação Ecológica de Carijós, Florianópolis/SC, para responder se o processo de urbanização tem trazido prejuízo à qualidade da água do canal e se este representa uma ameaça à Unidade de Conservação. Foi avaliado, ainda, se a estrutura de pré-tratamento construída no canal promove uma melhora na qualidade da água. Um extenso banco de dados de qualidade da água, proveniente do monitoramento realizado no canal entre 2009 e 2018, em dois pontos amostrais, foi analisado quanto ao atendimento à resolução CONAMA 357/05; foram realizadas análises espacial e temporal utilizando os testes não-paramétricos de Wilcoxon e Kruskal-Wallis com post hoc de múltiplas comparações, respectivamente, ao nível de significância de 1% para ambos os testes. Foi aplicado ainda o Índice de Qualidade da Água desenvolvido pelo Conselho Canadense de Ministros do Meio Ambiente (CCME), para enquadrar o canal das algas em categorias de qualidade da água. Dos 16 parâmetros físicos, químicos e biológicos avaliados, oxigênio dissolvido, demanda bioquímica de oxigênio, fósforo total e coliformes termotolerantes possuem os maiores percentuais de desconformidade em relação à resolução CONAMA 357/05, sendo os três primeiros os mais críticos. Oxigênio dissolvido apresentou 64% dos dados fora dos padrões legais no ponto a montante e 56% no ponto a jusante, demanda bioquímica de oxigênio apresentou 75% das amostras acima do valor máximo permitido pela resolução no ponto a montante e 67% no ponto a jusante e o fósforo total apresentou 95% das amostras acima do valor máximo permitido pela resolução no ponto a montante e 79% no ponto a jusante. Os altos índices de desconformidade destes três parâmetros somados ao alto desenvolvimento de macrófitas aquáticas na superfície do canal das Algas sustentam um estado de eutrofização deste corpo hídrico. O teste não-paramétrico de Wilcoxon mostrou que, com exceção apenas de temperatura da água e oxigênio dissolvido, todos os parâmetros possuem diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre os dois pontos de coleta, contudo essa diferença não se deve à estrutura de pré-tratamento construída, mas sim ao papel das macrófitas na absorção de nutrientes. Já o teste não-paramétrico de Kruskal-Wallis com post hoc de múltiplas comparações apontou diferenças estatisticamente significativas apenas para cor aparente, condutividade elétrica, turbidez, demanda bioquímica, fósforo totale coliformes totais, indicando que a maioria dos parâmetros não possuem tendência de queda ou aumento ao longo dos anos. O Índice de Qualidade de Água do CCME mostrou que o canal das Algas possui uma qualidade de ruim a regular na maior parte do período estudado.This study evaluated the water quality of the rainwater drainage channel known as the Algas channel, which flows into the Carijós Ecological Station, Florianópolis/SC, to answer whether the urbanization process has brought damage to the water quality of the channel and whether it represents a threat to the Conservation Unit. It was also evaluated whether the pre-treatment structure built in the channel promotes an improvement in water quality. An extensive water quality database, from the monitoring, carried out in the channel between 2009 and 2018, at two sampling points, was analyzed in terms of compliance with CONAMA resolution 357/05; spatial and temporal analysis were performed using non-parametric Wilcoxon and Kruskal Wallis tests with post hoc multiple comparisons, respectively, at a 1% significance level for both tests. The Water Quality Index developed by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) was also applied to classify the Algas channel in water quality categories. Of the 16 physical, chemical and biological parameters evaluated, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and thermotolerant coliforms have the highest percentages of non-compliance with CONAMA resolution 357/05, with the first three being the most critical. Dissolved oxygen presented 64% of the data outside the legal standards at the upstream point and 56% at the downstream point, biochemical oxygen demand presented 75% of the samples above the maximum value allowed by the resolution at the upstream point and 67% at the downstream point and total phosphorus presented 95% of the samples above the maximum value allowed by the resolution at the upstream point and 79% at the downstream point. The high levels of nonconformity of these three parameters added to the high development of aquatic macrophytes on the surface of the Algas channel support a state of eutrophication of this water body. Wilcoxon's non-parametric test showed that, except for water temperature and dissolved oxygen, all parameters have statistically significant differences between the two collection points, however, this difference is not due to the pre-treatment structure built, but yes to the role of macrophytes in nutrient absorption. The non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test with post hoc multiple comparisons showed statistically significant differences only for apparent color, electrical conductivity, turbidity, biochemical demand, total phosphorus, and total coliforms, indicating that most parameters do not have a downward trend or increase over the years. The CCME Water Quality Index showed that the Algas channel has a poor to regular quality for most of the period studied

Global geriatric evaluation of the Algarve population

The ageing of population challenges communities to adapt and evolve to accommodate the needs of people that live longer (mostly out of work, either healthy, fragile or with chronic disease). Population ageing in the Algarve is higher than in overall Portugal. Studies on health conditions, frailty risk factors and elderly specific needs are undeveloped in Portugal and unknown in the Algarve. Objective To prepare a tool for Global Geriatric Evaluation, to be used in the “Survey of Health and Ageing in the Region of Algarve - SHARA”, a commitment to “European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing”. Methods A preliminary version of the screening tool, which includes well-known instruments to measure health condition (EASY-care), risk of fall (Tinetty), physical activity (Baecke’s modified questionnaire), nutritional condition (MNA), cognitive and depressive status (MMSE, Yesavage geriatric depression scale), together with socio-demographic characteristics, was applied to an independent sample of subjects from an elderly community centre - ARPI (“Associação de Reformados, Pensionistas e Idosos do Concelho de Faro”), with ages between 55 and 89. Results ARPI is mostly frequented by women, who either have risk of malnutrition or malnutrition incidence, a relevant risk of fall or are physically active. Those who live alone, show a higher risk of fall. Conclusions ARPI members are active, but with risk of malnutrition and fall, suggesting the relevance and importance of future interventions in these areas. The proposed screening tool showed to be adequate for the SHARA study, suitable to provide wider information on frailty

O conceito de cientista em diferentes níveis de ensino

O ensino das ciências experimentais envolve um grande empenho, além de um consumo de tempo elevado, da parte dos professores para promover e induzir uma aprendizagem dinâmica de diversos conceitos científicos. Neste trabalho, é analisado o conceito de cientista no ensino básico e universitário. O presente estudo, relativo ao ano lectivo 2004 / 05, envolveu cerca de 600 alunos do ensino básico, desde o 5.º ao 9.º ano, com idades compreendidas entre os 10 e os 15 anos, das Escolas E.B. 2,3 D. Afonso III, Faro; E.B. 2,3 António Contreiras, Armação de Pêra e E.B. 2,3 Sto. António (n.º 4), Faro. Foram ainda abrangidos neste estudo cerca de 100 alunos do 1.º e 2.º anos das licenciaturas em Bioquímica, Engenharia do Ambiente e Oceanografia da Universidade do Algarve. Aos alunos foram colocadas duas questões, tendo sido definido um tempo máximo de 25 minutos para a primeira e de 15 minutos para a segunda: 1) Faça um desenho de um cientista; e, 2) O que é para ti um cientista

Normas de Segurança na Hotelaria como fator diferenciador: o caso prático do Azor Hotel

Durante o estágio realizado no Azor Hotel, como assistente de Direção, nos meses de outubro e novembro de 2016, foram desempenhadas funções nos departamentos de Recursos Humanos e Comercial. No início do estágio foi imediatamente encontrada a problemática, que se prendia com a inexistência de um sistema de Normas de Segurança e Qualidade. Coincidentemente, durante a frequência do estágio estas normas começaram a ser implementadas. Este relatório serviu como base de um estudo para aferir até que ponto os colaboradores as conhecem e se estas são uma mais-valia no desempenho do seu trabalho. A segurança e a qualidade constituem um binómio que cada vez mais se tem vindo a aperfeiçoar, tornando-se num dos pilares mais importantes da indústria hoteleira. Com o passar dos tempos chegou-se a uma uniformização e padronização deste binómio, o Sistema Normativo Internacional Padronizado. Vários estudos têm apontado para a importância gestão da qualidade e da implementação de normas de segurança e qualidade. Neste contexto, importa conhecer as perspetivas dos trabalhadores sobre esta temática. Para este efeito foi realizado um questionário a uma amostra dos colaboradores do Azor Hotel e posteriormente foram relacionadas variáveis relativas à importância que os colaboradores atribuem à existência das referidas normas, com variáveis relativas às diferenças nas características individuais dos trabalhadores. Concluiu-se que existe predisposição, por parte dos colaboradores, para que as normas sejam implementadas.During the internship at the Azor Hotel, as an assistant manager, in October and November 2016, the author of this report carried out several tasks in the Human Resources and Commercial departments. At the beginning of the internship, the research problem was immediately found, which was related to the lack of a system of Safety and Quality Standards. In fact, these norms started to be implemented during his internship. This report served as a basis for a study to gauge the extent to which employees know these norms and whether they consider them as an asset in the performance of their work. Safety and quality in companies have been improving, and they have now become one of the most important pillars of the hotel industry. Over time, they have been standardized by the International Organization for Standardization. Consequently, this report intends to establish a set of tools and ideas that serve as a leverage and enhancer for any company that is interested in studying employees' opinions about these standards and how they are implemented. With this purpose, a questionnaire was carried out on a sample of employees at the Azor Hotel, and variables concerning the importance that employees attributed to the existence of quality and security standards was analyzed, and related with variables concerning the differences in the individual characteristics of the employees. It was concluded that employees have a positive attitude towards the implementation of the norms

MERIS phytoplankton time series products from the SW Iberian Peninsula (Sagres) using seasonal-trend decomposition based on loess

The European Space Agency has acquired 10 years of data on the temporal and spatial distribution of phytoplankton biomass from the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) sensor for ocean color. The phytoplankton biomass was estimated with the MERIS product Algal Pigment Index 1 (API 1). Seasonal-Trend decomposition of time series based on Loess (STL) identified the temporal variability of the dynamical features in the MERIS products for water leaving reflectance ((w)()) and API 1. The advantages of STL is that it can identify seasonal components changing over time, it is responsive to nonlinear trends, and it is robust in the presence of outliers. One of the novelties in this study is the development and the implementation of an automatic procedure, stl.fit(), that searches the best data modeling by varying the values of the smoothing parameters, and by selecting the model with the lowest error measure. This procedure was applied to 10 years of monthly time series from Sagres in the Southwestern Iberian Peninsula at three Stations, 2, 10 and 18 km from the shore. Decomposing the MERIS products into seasonal, trend and irregular components with stl.fit(), the (w)() indicated dominance of the seasonal and irregular components while API 1 was mainly dominated by the seasonal component, with an increasing effect from inshore to offshore. A comparison of the seasonal components between the (w)() and the API 1 product, showed that the variations decrease along this time period due to the changes in phytoplankton functional types. Furthermore, inter-annual seasonal variation for API 1 showed the influence of upwelling events and in which month of the year these occur at each of the three Sagres stations. The stl.fit() is a good tool for any remote sensing study of time series, particularly those addressing inter-annual variations. This procedure will be made available in R software

DIMENSÕES GEOGRÁFICAS, LITERÁRIAS E TRADUTÓRIAS DO EXÍLIO

Este trabalho aborda as dimensões geográficas, literárias e tradutórias do exílio. No intuito de discutir as rupturas ocorridas no indivíduo exilado, investigamos os eventos de migração primeiramente sob oponto de vista dos estudos geográficos, depois passamos pelo fenômeno da diáspora para, então, averiguarmos as origens históricas e as conseqüências do exílio para o indivíduo. Nesse caminho, tomamos como base a propostade Paul Ilie (1980), do exílio interior, para discutimos as diferenças existentes entre o exilado, aquele que se vê forçado a se exilar, e o expatriado, aquele que se desloca por opção. Posteriormente, estabelecemos uma relação pertinente entre a condição exílica e a literatura para, finalmente, relacionarmos exílio e tradução, tendo como suporte o texto “A Tarefa do Tradutor” de Walter Benjamin (1923).GEOGRAPHIC, LITERARY AND TRANSLATABLE DIMENSIONS OF EXILEThis work approaches the geographic, literary and translatable dimensions of exile. In order to discuss disruptions occurred in the individual exiled, this paper firstly investigates migration events under the geographic point of view, then considers the diaspora phenomenon and analyses the historical origins and the consequences of exile for the individual. Paul Ilie’s concept of inner exile (1980) is used to discuss the differences between the exiled person – the individual who is forced to exile – and the expatriate, who dislocates by choice. Next, a pertinent relation is established between the exilic condition and literature; lastly, exile and translation are related by means of Walter Benjamin’s text “The Translator’s Task” (1923)

A TUTELA PENAL DO MEIO AMBIENTE E SUA (IN)COMPATIBILIDADE COM A INTERVENÇÃO MÍNIMA

Considerando que o Direito Penal deve atuar como última via e para tutelar os bens jurídicos mais relevantes, propõe-se a analisar se a imputação da responsabilidade penal ambiental iria de encontro com a premissa da intervenção mínima. Assim, tem-se como objetivo do presente estudo analisar se a responsabilização penal no âmbito do direito ambiental viola o princípio da intervenção mínima