Evaluating Actual Credibility Criteria of Internet-based Scientific Information of Adult Learners

Self-directed adult learners access and evaluate scientific information on the Internet. This paper will discuss methodologies proposed to identify credibility criteria employed during these online learning endeavors

An Intercomparison of Regional Atmospheric Circulation and the Melt Season Loss of Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice Extent Across the Land-Ocean Boundary

This study is designed to compare the monthly continental snow cover and sea ice extent loss in the Arctic with regional atmospheric conditions including: mean sea level pressure, 925 hPa air temperature, and mean wind direction among others during the melt season (March-August) over the 29-year study period 1979-2007. Little research has gone into studying the concurrent variations in the annual loss of continental snow cover and sea ice extent across the land-ocean boundary, since these data are largely stored in incompatible formats. However, the analysis of these data, averaged spatially over three autonomous study regions located in Siberia, North America, and Western Russia, reveals a distinct difference in the response of snow and sea ice to the atmospheric forcing. On average, sea ice extent is lost earlier in the year, in May, than snow cover, in June, although Arctic sea ice is located farther north than continental snow in all three study regions. Once the loss of snow and ice extent begins, snow cover is completely removed sooner than sea ice extent, even though ice loss begins earlier in the melt season. Further, the analysis of the atmospheric conditions surrounding loss of snow and ice cover over the independent study regions indicates that conditions of cool temperatures with strong northeasterly winds in the later melt season months are effective at removing sea ice cover, likely through ice divergence, as are warmer temperatures via southerly winds directly forcing melt. The results of this study set the framework for further analysis of the direct influence of snow cover loss on later melt season sea ice extents and the predictability of snow and sea ice extent responses to modeled future climate condition

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative "compactness" of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", sea ice regime

Greenland Ice Sheet late-season melt: investigating multi-scale drivers of K-transect events

One consequence of recent Arctic warming is an increased occurrence and longer seasonality of above-freezing air temperature episodes.There is significant disagreement in the literature concerning potential physical connectivity between high-latitude open water duration proximate to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and unseasonal (i.e. late summer and autumn) GrIS melt events. Here, a new date of sea ice advance (DOA) product is used to determine the occurrence of Baffin Bay sea ice growth along Greenland’s west coast for the 2011–2015 period. For the unseasonal melt period preceding the DOA, northwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions are analyzed and linked to unseasonal melt events observed at a series of on-ice automatic weather stations (AWS) along the K-transect in southwest Greenland. Mesoscale and synoptic influences on the above and below freezing surface air temperature events are assessed through analyses of AWS wind, pressure, and humidity observations. These surface observations are further compared against Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2), and ERA-Interim reanalysis fields to understand the airmass origins and (thermo)dynamic drivers of the melt events. Results suggest that the K-transect late season, ablation zone melt events are strongly affected by ridging atmospheric circulation patterns that transport warm, moist air from the sub-polar North Atlantic toward west Greenland. While thermal conduction and advection off south Baffin Bayopen waters impact coastal air temperatures, consistent with previous studies, marine air incursions from Baffin Bay onto the ice sheet are obstructed by barrier flows and the pressure gradient-driven katabatic regime along the western GrIS margin

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

WSES guidelines for management of Clostridium difficile infection in surgical patients

In the last two decades there have been dramatic changes in the epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), with increases in incidence and severity of disease in many countries worldwide. The incidence of CDI has also increased in surgical patients. Optimization of management of C difficile, has therefore become increasingly urgent. An international multidisciplinary panel of experts prepared evidenced-based World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) guidelines for management of CDI in surgical patients.Peer reviewe

Springtime melt onset on arctic sea ice from satellite observations and related atmospheric conditions

The timing of snowmelt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice derived from passive microwave satellite data is examined by determining the melting area (in km 2) on a daily basis for the spring and summer melt season months over the 1979 – 2012 data record. The date of MO on Arctic sea ice has important implications for the amount of total solar energy absorbed by the ice-ocean system in a given year. Increasingly early mean MO dates have been recorded over the 34-year data record. Statistically significant trends indicate that MO is occurring 6.6 days decade-1 earlier in the year over all Arctic sea ice extent. Larger trends exist in sub-regions of the Arctic Ocean including the Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas and in the Central Arctic region. The Bering Sea is the only sub-region of the Arctic that has a positive trend in mean MO date indicating that melting is occurring later in the year. Temporal and spatial variability in melting events are examined in the time series of daily MO areas via the identification of several types of melting events. These melting events are characterized based on the magnitude of area melted and duration of the event. Daily maps of MO during melting events are compared with the atmospheric conditions from reanalysis data to investigate the nature of spatial variability in melting area. The occurrence of transient cyclones tends to produce large, contiguous areas of melting on sea ice located in the warm sector of the cyclone. By contrast, high pressure and attendant clear sky conditions tend to produce sporadic, discontinuous areas of melting area. Interannual variability in daily MO area is assessed using an annual accumulation of daily MO area for each melt season. Trends in mean MO dates are evident in the annual accumulations, however, regional variability is high and outlier events can occur. This work illustrates the need for a better understanding of the synoptic weather conditions leading to specific patterns in MO area to improve the predictability of early season Arctic sea ice response to a changing climate

Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979–2022

Abstract The onset of the summer melt season is a key stage of the Arctic sea ice seasonal cycle and is an indicator of climate change. Surface melting of the bare or snow-covered sea ice is detected using passive microwave satellite observations. The data set presented here is a 44 year record of Arctic sea ice annual melt onset (MO) dates for 1979–2022 produced using an updated version of the Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA). This data product contains annual maps of the sea ice MO date and a set of descriptive statistics summarizing the data. This paper describes a new update of the AHRA methodology, now AHRA V5, including key changes to the algorithm starting date and sea ice mask methodology to improve estimates of early-season MO dates especially near the sea ice periphery. AHRA V5 data are suitable for monitoring trends in Arctic and regional sea ice MO dates and for process studies of atmosphere-sea ice interactions during the early spring and summer months

Daily Area of Snow Melt Onset on Arctic Sea Ice from Passive Microwave Satellite Observations 1979–2012

Variability in snow melt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice since 1979 is examined by determining the area of sea ice experiencing the onset of melting during the melt season on a daily basis. The daily MO area of the snow and ice surface is determined from passive microwave satellite-derived MO dates for the Arctic Ocean and sub-regions. Annual accumulations of MO area are determined by summing the time series of daily MO area through the melt season. Daily areas and annual accumulations of MO area highlight inter-annual and regional variability in the timing of MO area, which is sensitive to day-to-day variations in spring weather conditions. Two distinct spatial patterns in MO area accumulations including an intense, fast accumulating melt area pattern and a slow accumulating melt pattern are examined for two melting events in the Kara Sea. In comparing the 34 years of MO dates for the Arctic Ocean and sub-regions, melt accumulations have changed during the period. In the earlier years, 1979–1987, the MO generally was later in the year than the mean, while in more recent years, the MO accumulations have been occurring earlier in the melt season. The sub-regions of the Arctic Ocean also exhibit greater annual variability than the Arctic Ocean