Machine Learning Approach for the Early Prediction of the Risk of Overweight and Obesity in Young People

Obesity is a major global concern with more than 2.1 billion people overweight or obese worldwide which amounts to almost 30% of the global population. If the current trend continues, the overweight and obese population is likely to increase to 41% by 2030. Individuals developing signs of weight gain or obesity are also at a risk of developing serious illnesses such as type 2 diabetes, respiratory problems, heart disease and stroke. Some intervention measures such as physical activity and healthy eating can be a fundamental component to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Therefore, it is absolutely essential to detect childhood obesity as early as possible. This paper utilises the vast amount of data available via UK’s millennium cohort study in order to construct a machine learning driven model to predict young people at the risk of becoming overweight or obese. The childhood BMI values from the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 are used to predict adolescents of age 14 at the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There is an inherent imbalance in the dataset of individuals with normal BMI and the ones at risk. The results obtained are encouraging and a prediction accuracy of over 90% for the target class has been achieved. Various issues relating to data preprocessing and prediction accuracy are addressed and discussed

Physical activity and clustered cardiovascular disease risk factors in young children: a cross-sectional study (the IDEFICS study)

<p>Background The relevance of physical activity (PA) for combating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in children has been highlighted, but to date there has been no large-scale study analyzing that association in children aged ≤9 years of age. This study sought to evaluate the associations between objectively-measured PA and clustered CVD risk factors in a large sample of European children, and to provide evidence for gender-specific recommendations of PA.</p> <p>Methods Cross-sectional data from a longitudinal study in 16,224 children aged 2 to 9 were collected. Of these, 3,120 (1,016 between 2 to 6 years, 2,104 between 6 to 9 years) had sufficient data for inclusion in the current analyses. Two different age-specific and gender-specific clustered CVD risk scores associated with PA were determined. First, a CVD risk factor (CRF) continuous score was computed using the following variables: systolic blood pressure (SBP), total triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) ratio, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and sum of two skinfolds (score CRFs). Secondly, another CVD risk score was obtained for older children containing the score CRFs + the cardiorespiratory fitness variable (termed score CRFs + fit). Data used in the current analysis were derived from the IDEFICS (‘Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS’) study.</p> <p>Results In boys <6 years, the odds ratios (OR) for CVD risk were elevated in the least active quintile of PA (OR: 2.58) compared with the most active quintile as well as the second quintile for vigorous PA (OR: 2.91). Compared with the most active quintile, older children in the first, second and third quintiles had OR for CVD risk score CRFs + fit ranging from OR 2.69 to 5.40 in boys, and from OR 2.85 to 7.05 in girls.</p> <p>Conclusions PA is important to protect against clustering of CVD risk factors in young children, being more consistent in those older than 6 years. Healthcare professionals should recommend around 60 and 85 min/day of moderate-to-vigorous PA, including 20 min/day of vigorous PA.</p&gt

Predisposition to Obesity: Should We Target Those Most Susceptible?

Obesity prevention should remain a priority, even if there is some suggestion that the epidemic may presently have reached a stable level. However, previous interventions have not been effective in preventing overweight and obesity, and at the same time studies suggest that some subgroups are more predisposed to future obesity. The purpose of this paper is to review interventions on obesity prevention published during the past year, and to examine if interventions targeting predisposed groups or individuals seem more efficient in preventing obesity than studies targeting general populations. Among 15 identified studies, 7 targeted predisposed children or adolescents. More of the studies targeting predisposed individuals were able to show significant effects than the studies targeting general populations. Most studies targeting predisposed defined the predisposition based on ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Thus, we may be more successful in preventing obesity when targeting predisposed individuals, but more studies are needed before a firm conclusion can be drawn

Is adolescent body mass index and waist circumference associated with the food environments surrounding schools and homes? A longitudinal analysis

Background: There has been considerable interest in the role of access to unhealthy food options as a determinant of weight status. There is conflict across the literature as to the existence of such an association, partly due to the dominance of cross-sectional study designs and inconsistent definitions of the food environment. The aim of our study is to use longitudinal data to examine if features of the food environment are associated to measures of adolescent weight status. Methods: Data were collected from secondary schools in Leeds (UK) and included measurements at school years 7 (ages 11/12), 9 (13/14), and 11 (15/16). Outcome variables, for weight status, were standardised body mass index and standardised waist circumference. Explanatory variables included the number of fast food outlets, supermarkets and ‘other retail outlets’ located within a 1 km radius of an individual’s home or school, and estimated travel route between these locations (with a 500 m buffer). Multi-level models were fit to analyse the association (adjusted for confounders) between the explanatory and outcome variables. We also examined changes in our outcome variables between each time period. Results: We found few associations between the food environment and measures of adolescent weight status. Where significant associations were detected, they mainly demonstrated a positive association between the number of amenities and weight status (although effect sizes were small). Examining changes in weight status between time periods produced mainly non-significant or inconsistent associations. Conclusions: Our study found little consistent evidence of an association between features of the food environment and adolescent weight status. It suggests that policy efforts focusing on the food environment may have a limited effect at tackling the high prevalence of obesity if not supported by additional strategies

Behavioural Susceptibility Theory: Professor Jane Wardle and the Role of Appetite in Genetic Risk of Obesity

Purpose of Review: There is considerable variability in human body weight, despite the ubiquity of the 'obesogenic' environment. Human body weight has a strong genetic basis and it has been hypothesised that genetic susceptibility to the environment explains variation in human body weight, with differences in appetite being implicated as the mediating mechanism; so-called 'behavioural susceptibility theory' (BST), first described by Professor Jane Wardle. This review summarises the evidence for the role of appetite as a mediator of genetic risk of obesity. Recent Findings: Variation in appetitive traits is observable from infancy, drives early weight gain and is highly heritable in infancy and childhood. Obesity-related common genetic variants identified through genome-wide association studies show associations with appetitive traits, and appetite mediates part of the observed association between genetic risk and adiposity. Summary: Obesity results from an interaction between genetic susceptibility to overeating and exposure to an 'obesogenic' food environment

Secular Trends in the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Sicilian Schoolchildren Aged 11–13 Years During the Last Decade

The present study evaluates trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in relation to gender and area of residence between two cohorts of students aged 11–13 years in Sicily. The analysis was performed on 1,839 schoolchildren, with 924 and 915 children being studied in 1999–2001 and 2009–2010, respectively. The children who were enrolled during 2009–2010 had significantly higher body mass indexes (BMI), BMI z-scores, and waist circumferences than the children who were studied during 1999–2001 (p<0.0001 for all); these differences was also observed when the cohort was subdivided according to gender or residence area The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 7.9% in 1999–2001 to 13.7% in 2009–2010 (p<0.0001), whereas thinness decreased significantly from 10.1% to 2.3% (p<0.0001) in the same periods. The increase of trends in the prevalence of obesity was significantly higher in males (9.7% vs. 17.6%, p = 0.0006) than in females (6.3% vs. 9.8%, p = 0.04) and was slightly higher in urban areas (8.8% vs. 14.3%, p = 0.002) than in rural areas (7.8% vs. 13.0%, p = 0.012). The male gender was associated with a higher risk of being overweight or obese (odds ratio: 1.63; 95% confidence intervals: 1.24–2.15; p = 0.0005) in 2009–2010 than in 1999–2001, after adjusting for age and the residence area. In conclusion, this study showed an increasing trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Sicilian schoolchildren during the last decade and that this trend was related to gender, age and the area of residence. More specifically, our data indicated that the prevalence of obesity increased by 5.8%, the prevalence of thinness decreased by 7.8% and the prevalence of normal-weight children did not change over the course of a decade. These results suggest a shift in the body weights of Sicilian children toward the upper percentiles

High-Intensity Interval Training Interventions in Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Review

BackgroundWhilst there is increasing interest in the efficacy of high-intensity interval training in children and adolescents as a time-effective method of eliciting health benefits, there remains little consensus within the literature regarding the most effective means for delivering a high-intensity interval training intervention. Given the global health issues surrounding childhood obesity and associated health implications, the identification of effective intervention strategies is imperative.ObjectivesThe aim of this review was to examine high-intensity interval training as a means of influencing key health parameters and to elucidate the most effective high-intensity interval training protocol.MethodsStudies were included if they: (1) studied healthy children and/or adolescents (aged 5–18 years); (2) prescribed an intervention that was deemed high intensity; and (3) reported health-related outcome measures.ResultsA total of 2092 studies were initially retrieved from four databases. Studies that were deemed to meet the criteria were downloaded in their entirety and independently assessed for relevance by two authors using the pre-determined criteria. From this, 13 studies were deemed suitable. This review found that high-intensity interval training in children and adolescents is a time-effective method of improving cardiovascular disease biomarkers, but evidence regarding other health-related measures is more equivocal. Running-based sessions, at an intensity of >90% heart rate maximum/100–130% maximal aerobic velocity, two to three times a week and with a minimum intervention duration of 7 weeks, elicit the greatest improvements in participant health.ConclusionWhile high-intensity interval training improves cardiovascular disease biomarkers, and the evidence supports the effectiveness of running-based sessions, as outlined above, further recommendations as to optimal exercise duration and rest intervals remain ambiguous owing to the paucity of literature and the methodological limitations of studies presently available

Polygenic risk for obesity and its interaction with lifestyle and sociodemographic factors in European children and adolescents

Background Childhood obesity is a complex multifaceted condition, which is influenced by genetics, environmental factors, and their interaction. However, these interactions have mainly been studied in twin studies and evidence from population-based cohorts is limited. Here, we analyze the interaction of an obesity-related genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) with sociodemographic and lifestyle factors for BMI and waist circumference (WC) in European children and adolescents. Methods The analyses are based on 8609 repeated observations from 3098 participants aged 2-16 years from the IDEFICS/I.Family cohort. A genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) was calculated using summary statistics from independent genome-wide association studies of BMI. Associations were estimated using generalized linear mixed models adjusted for sex, age, region of residence, parental education, dietary intake, relatedness, and population stratification. Results The PRS was associated with BMI (beta estimate [95% confidence interval (95%-CI)] = 0.33 [0.30, 0.37], r(2) = 0.11, p value = 7.9 x 10(-81)) and WC (beta [95%-CI] = 0.36 [0.32, 0.40], r(2) = 0.09, p value = 1.8 x 10(-71)). We observed significant interactions with demographic and lifestyle factors for BMI as well as WC. Children from Southern Europe showed increased genetic liability to obesity (BMI: beta [95%-CI] = 0.40 [0.34, 0.45]) in comparison to children from central Europe (beta [95%-CI] = 0.29 [0.23, 0.34]), p-interaction = 0.0066). Children of parents with a low level of education showed an increased genetic liability to obesity (BMI: beta [95%-CI] = 0.48 [0.38, 0.59]) in comparison to children of parents with a high level of education (beta [95%-CI] = 0.30 [0.26, 0.34]), p-interaction = 0.0012). Furthermore, the genetic liability to obesity was attenuated by a higher intake of fiber (BMI: beta [95%-CI] interaction = -0.02 [-0.04,-0.01]) and shorter screen times (beta [95%-CI] interaction = 0.02 [0.00, 0.03]). Conclusions Our results highlight that a healthy childhood environment might partly offset a genetic predisposition to obesity during childhood and adolescence.Peer reviewe

Reconstruction of Genome-Scale Active Metabolic Networks for 69 Human Cell Types and 16 Cancer Types Using INIT

Development of high throughput analytical methods has given physicians the potential access to extensive and patient-specific data sets, such as gene sequences, gene expression profiles or metabolite footprints. This opens for a new approach in health care, which is both personalized and based on system-level analysis. Genome-scale metabolic networks provide a mechanistic description of the relationships between different genes, which is valuable for the analysis and interpretation of large experimental data-sets. Here we describe the generation of genome-scale active metabolic networks for 69 different cell types and 16 cancer types using the INIT (Integrative Network Inference for Tissues) algorithm. The INIT algorithm uses cell type specific information about protein abundances contained in the Human Proteome Atlas as the main source of evidence. The generated models constitute the first step towards establishing a Human Metabolic Atlas, which will be a comprehensive description (accessible online) of the metabolism of different human cell types, and will allow for tissue-level and organism-level simulations in order to achieve a better understanding of complex diseases. A comparative analysis between the active metabolic networks of cancer types and healthy cell types allowed for identification of cancer-specific metabolic features that constitute generic potential drug targets for cancer treatment

Effects and Action Mechanisms of Berberine and Rhizoma coptidis on Gut Microbes and Obesity in High-Fat Diet-Fed C57BL/6J Mice

Gut microbes play important roles in regulating fat storage and metabolism. Rhizoma coptidis (RC) and its main active compound, berberine, have either antimicrobial or anti-obesity activities. In the present study, we hypothesize that RC exerts anti-obesity effects that are likely mediated by mechanisms of regulating gut microbes and berberine may be a key compound of RC. Gut microbes and glucose and lipid metabolism in high-fat diet-fed C57BL/6J (HFD) mice in vivo are investigated after RC and berberine treatments. The results show that RC (200 mg/kg) and berberine (200 mg/kg) significantly lower both body and visceral adipose weights, and reduce blood glucose and lipid levels, and decrease degradation of dietary polysaccharides in HFD mice. Both RC and berberine significantly reduce the proportions of fecal Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes to total bacteria in HFD mice. In the trial ex vivo, both RC and berberine significantly inhibit the growth of gut bacteria under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. In in vitro trials, both RC and berberine significantly inhibit the growth of Lactobacillus (a classical type of Firmicutes) under anaerobic conditions. Furthermore, both RC and berberine significantly increase fasting-induced adipose factor (Fiaf, a key protein negatively regulated by intestinal microbes) expressions in either intestinal or visceral adipose tissues. Both RC and berberine significantly increase mRNA expressions of AMPK, PGC1α, UCP2, CPT1α, and Hadhb related to mitochondrial energy metabolism, which may be driven by increased Fiaf expression. These results firstly suggest that antimicrobial activities of RC and berberine may result in decreasing degradation of dietary polysaccharides, lowering potential calorie intake, and then systemically activating Fiaf protein and related gene expressions of mitochondrial energy metabolism in visceral adipose tissues. Taken together, these action mechanisms may contribute to significant anti-obesity effects. Findings in the present study also indicate that pharmacological regulation on gut microbes can develop an anti-obesity strategy