Modelling the effect of learning and evolving rules on the use of common-pool resources

The extend to which common-pool resources are used and managed sustainably depends highly on incentives. Incentives influence the behaviour of individuals with respect to natural resource management and are determined by institutional arrangements comprising of formal and informal rules and markets. Changes in institutional arrangements will affect individual incentives and will therefore have an impact on resource use. In order to model the connections between institutional arrangements and the sustainable use of common-pool resources we must take into consideration the behaviour of individuals. Game-theoretical models appear to be an adequate modelling technique with which to assess the behaviour of individuals as well as the development of institutions with regards to common-pool resource regimes. The implementation of a game-theoretical framework in the form of an agent-based model appears to be a particularly appropriate tool with which to assess common-pool resource use regimes as such models enable the behaviour of different agents to be modelled as strategies. Traditionally with agent-based models, the strategies that agents pursue are given, with their expression endogenously determined by the set of rules which govern their behaviour. In this paper I focus on the implementation of mechanisms that also allow for rules to adapt endogenously. Such an approach will be applied to common-pool resource use in order to analyse the effect of rule changes.Institutional arrangements, agent-based modelling, learning, evolving rules

Modelling Evolving Rules for the Use of Common-pool Resources in an Agent-based Model

Institutional arrangements are key drivers of the use of common-pool resources (CPR). The analysis of existing arrangements requires a framework that allows research to describe a case study systematically and diagnose the institutional setting. Based on a sound understanding of current institutions the question of what effects alternate arrangements would have becomes evident. This step requires a predictive model, which can either be qualitative or, preferably, analyses an empirical case quantitatively. A major conceptual challenge of a quantitative model is the evolution of rules, which define the boundaries for the agents to choose strategies. This paper develops the conceptual foundations for such a modelling approach and an agent-based model for the analysis of institutional arrangements in a CPR setting

Using Isotope Ratio Infrared Spectrometer to determine δ13C and δ18O of carbonate samples

The automated measurement of δ13C and δ18O from solid carbonate samples has been demonstrated using a ThermoScientific™ Delta Ray™ IRIS with URI Connect. The measurement of certified reference materials confirms the high achievable accuracy and a precision of <0.1‰ for both δ13C and δ18O

Dampak Kebijakan Nonkehutanan pada Deforestasi dan Kemiskinan di Kalimantan Timur: Sebuah Analisis Berbasis Agen

This paper aims to analyze the impact of non-forestry policy, especially energy related macro policy decisions, on poverty and use levels of natural resources. As core indicators, this analysis employs ‘number of households below the poverty line’ and ‘area of deforestation’. Impacts are analyzed in an agent-based simulation model for 6 districts of East Kalimantan, one of the Indonesian natural-resource rich provinces on the Island of Borneo. Simulation results partly suggest that the policy decision of June 2008-politically known as decreasing fuel price-had nearly no impact on deforestation amplifying that the dominating driver of deforestation is large scale logging and mining operations, as well as potentially illegal activities. While, it reduced the number of poor people-those mostly living within and around forest area-by about 5.4%. Due to seasonal income, this policy-related impact is likely to be periodically lower. During the harvest related period, many households are able to lift their income above the poverty line. This seasonal fluctuation in poverty could help optimize public funding by spreading it over longer periods and by pausing direct transfers during such natural periods of poverty reduction. There is no significant implication for forestry or forest management since the model could only deal with small scale forestry

Farm types and farmer motivations to adapt:Implications for design of sustainable agricultural interventions in the rubber plantations of South West China

Tropical land use is one of the leading causes of global environmental change. Sustainable agricultural development aims to reduce the negative environmental impacts of tropical land use whilst enhancing the well-being of the smallholder farmers residing in those areas. Interventions with this goal are typically designed by scientists educated in the Western tradition, and often achieve lower than desired uptake by smallholder farmers. We build on work done in farm type classification and studies of factors that influence adaptation, trialling a suite of household survey questions to elucidate the motivational factors that influence a farmer's willingness to adapt to external change. Based on a sample of 1015 households in the rubber growing region of Xishuangbanna, South-west China, we found that farm types based on structural characteristics (e.g. crops, livelihoods) could not be used to accurately predict farmers' motivations to adapt. Amongst all six farm types identified, the full range of motivational typologies was found. We found six motivational types, from most to least likely to adapt, named: Aspirational Innovators, Conscientious, Copy Cats, Incentive-centric, Well Settled, and Change Resistant. These groups roughly corresponded with those identified in literature regarding diffusion of innovations, but such classifications are rarely used in development literature. We predict that only one third of the population would be potentially willing to trial a new intervention, and recommend that those sectors of the population should be identified and preferentially targeted by development programs. Such an approach requires validation that these motivational typologies accurately predict real behaviour – perhaps through a panel survey approach. Dedicated data gathering is required, beyond what is usually carried out for ex-ante farm typologies, but with some refinements of the methodology presented here the process need not be onerous. An improved suite of questions to appraise farmers' motivations might include value orientations, life satisfaction, and responses to various scenarios, all phrased to be locally appropriate, with a scoring system that uses the full range of potential scores and a minimum of follow up and peripheral questions

Meeting the looming policy challenge of sea-level change and human migration

PRIFPRI3; ISI; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and GovernanceDSG

Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process

Understanding barriers to decision making in the UK energy-food-water nexus: The added value of interdisciplinary approaches

The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry which seeks to describe the complex and non-linear interactions between energy, food and water with the climate, whilst furthering understanding of wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by shocks such as climate change and characterize some of the main challenges for global sustainable development. Given the multidimensional and complex nature of the nexus, a transdisciplinary approach to knowledge development through co-production is needed to timely and effectively inform decision making processes to build societal resilience to these shocks going beyond the sectorality of current research practice. The paper presents findings from five themed workshops (shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) with 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry in the UK to explore the impact of climate and weather shocks across the energy-food-water nexus and barriers to related responses. The research identified key stakeholders’ concerns, opportunities and barriers to better inform decision-making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. We discuss implications of these barriers and how addressing these can better facilitate constructive dialogue and more efficient decision-making in response to nexus shocks