A non-parametric model-based approach to uncertainty and risk analysis of macroeconomic forecast

It has increasingly become standard practice to supplement point macroeconomic forecasts with an appraisal of the degree of uncertainty and the prevailing direction of risks. Several alternative approaches have been proposed in the literature to compute the probability distribution of macroeconomic forecasts; all of them rely on combining the predictive density of model-based forecasts with subjective judgment about the direction and intensity of prevailing risks. We propose a non-parametric, model-based simulation approach, which does not require specific assumptions to be made regarding the probability distribution of the sources of risk. The probability distribution of macroeconomic forecasts is computed as the result of model-based stochastic simulations which rely on re-sampling from the historical distribution of risk factors and are designed to deliver the desired degree of skewness. By contrast, other approaches typically make a specific, parametric assumption about the distribution of risk factors. The approach is illustrated using the Bank of Italy’s Quarterly Macroeconometric Model. The results suggest that the distribution of macroeconomic forecasts quickly tends to become symmetric, even if all risk factors are assumed to be asymmetrically distributed.macroeconomic forecasts, stochastic simulations, balance of risks, uncertainty, fan-charts

Wave propagation in the Portuguese Nearshore, with application to wave energy resource assessment

Trabalho de projecto de mestrado em Ciências Geofísicas (Oceanografia), apresentado à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2009SWAN wave model (Simulating Waves Nearshore, TU Delft) has been validated against in situ observations for two months: October and June (wave climate) analyzing salient wave parameters (Hs, Te, θ and Energy Flux (P) ) for the Portuguese Pilot Zone (PZ). The model slightly over predicts Hs, while Te is underestimated. Energy Flux (P) also shows mis estimation. θ is well predicted. Mis estimation is certainly due to improper boundary conditions (WAM 2D spectra). Extreme (stormy) observed sea states, typical for winter, are mis predicted by wave model; milder condition, typical in summer, are better predicted but still some important differences are observable

The Lost Urban Identity: Tradition and Fusion for a New Sense of Place

City is a complex phenomenon, in perennial transformation, permanently engaging and rich in contrasts. The critical points in economics, society and culture are inevitably accentuated by globalization.Today everything that appens is spread istantaneously through media and social networks. This rapidity brings immediate consequences, be they positive or negative, and there are few opportunities for control and organization. Blending between economies, society, architectural styles and ideas takes place just as quickly. The value of urban landscapes is closely linked to their past and the history which has shaped them. Urban identity, however, is little more than an abstract entity, a near obsolete concept with boundaries and characteristics that are hard to define. Today, in our society, it is hard to define “sense of place”. The very meaning of the word tradition is also open for discussion. The challenge is to find tools and, above all, develop study paths that allow to absorb the wealth of ever new cultural influences, without losing the spatial ans social urban identity which, for centuries, have distinguished the italian landscape. The chapter proposes some reflections on these issues,through theoretical references and Italian and international examples. The emphasis is given to projects and ideas facing the new environmental and sustainability requirements, which undoubtedly necessitate modification in the urban fabric towards green or smart cities, but considering tradition as the key aspect for the sustainable future of our cities

Collections of editorial cartoons by the trade union press: visual sources for a history against the grain

The history of Brazil may be presented or interpreted with the aid of various historical sources. Among these sources, communicative production has generally gained increasing importance to the historiography making. Thus, we highlight the editorial cartoons in the context of the Brazilian trade union press, which, in our studies, occupy a central position as a communication product and historical source. Since the late 1970s, with the resurgence of the trade union movement under the aegis of a ‘new trade unionism,’ the editorial cartoon has been used as a significant communication strategy that reveals the broadest and most notorious political processes. Compiling sets of editorial cartoons into collections has helped providing a rich research material, promoting the availability of alternative historical sources for historiography making. This article aims to identify and analyze collections of editorial cartoons produced in the context of trade union press, characterizing them as historical sources to produce an analysis of history against the grain. Keywords: Editorial Cartoon; Trade Union Press; Historical Source; Visual Source; Communication Strategy

Orangulas: effect of scheduled visual enrichment on behavioral and endocrine aspects of a captive orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus)

Captivity may have adverse effects on captive great apes, as they spend much more of their time engaged in foraging and other activities in the wild. Enrichment interventions have the potential to alleviate the adverse effects of captivity by introducing novel stimuli. In orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus), interactive digital enrichment has proven effective at engaging users out of their own free will, in exchange for nothing but the experience. This article reports the results of scheduled visual enrichment in the form of “orangulas”—one-hour long videos of footage consisting mainly of open spaces in different environments, with which the pongid participant could engage at free will. The efficacy of the orangulas were measured with both behavioural and endocrine measurements, concluding that scheduled visual enrichment has the potential to improve the welfare of captive orangutans by providing novel stimuli in the context of largely stable environments

Giocare con la luce. Idee per attività di osservazione ed esplorazione

pp.57-75Con le attività che presentiamo in questo capitolo ci si propone di studiare alcuni aspetti fisici della luce partendo da osservazioni di fatti del mondo di ogni giorno, come per esempio riconoscere gli effetti dovuti alla propagazione rettilinea della luce, collegare la scomposizione della luce bianca ai colori, individuare varie situazioni della percezione delle immagini. Le esperienze suggerite sono tutte realizzabili con materiali "poveri" che fanno parte del mondo quotidiano dei bambini e che, oltre a costare poco, non li spaventano ed anzi li invitano ad assumere l'abitudine di porsi delle domande sulle cose che li circondano.With the activities we present in this chapter, we intend to study some physical aspects of light from observations of everyday world events, such as recognizing the effects of the direct propagation of light, linking the white light to the color , to identify various situations of image perception. Suggested experiences are all feasible with "poor" materials that are part of the everyday world of children and that, in addition to cost a little, they do not frighten them and even invite them to take the habit of asking questions about the things around them

Pelaksanaan Perkawinan Campuran Intereligius (antara Hindu dan Kristen) di Denpasar, Bali

Undang-undang Perkawinan di Indonesia tidak mengatur secara jelas dan tegas tentang perkawinan campuran intereligius, sehingga menimbulkan multitafsir apakah perkawinan beda agama di Indonesia diperbolehkan atau tidak dan kalaupun diperbolehkan bagaimana proses pelaksanaannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana proses pelaksanaan perkawinan beda agama di kota Denpasar sampai bisa dicatatkan di Kantor Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil dan dasar hukum apa yang digunakan untuk mencatatkan perkawinan tersebut.Penelitian ini menggunakan metode yuridis empiris dan menggunakan analisis kualitatif dengan teknik pengumpulan data melalui wawancara, yaitu dengan mengadakan wawancara langsung dengan Hakim PN Denpasar dan Pegawai Kantor Disdukcapil Denpasar dan menggunakan metode studi pustaka yaitu dengan cara mengumpulkan bahan yang berupa buku-buku, peraturan Perundang-undangan, dan bahan pustaka lainnya yang berhubungan dengan masalah yang diteliti.Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dapat disimpulkan bahwa proses pelaksanaan perkawinan campuran intereligius di kota Denpasar adalah calon pasangan terlebih dahulu mendatangi Kantor Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil untuk memberitahu niat melangsungkan perkawinan tersebut, Kantor Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil akan menolak untuk mencatatkan perkawinan tersebut karena adanya perbedaan agama, kemudian Kantor Dinas kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil akan mengeluarkan surat penolakan dan menyarankan kepada calon mempelai untuk meminta penetapan pengadilan. Penetapan pengadilan tersebut berupa ijin perkawinan untuk melangsungkan perkawinan campuran intereligius dan memerintahkan Kantor Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil untuk mencatatkan perkawinan intereligius tersebut. Penetapan pengadilan inilah yang digunakan oleh Kantor Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil kota Denpasar sebagai dasar untuk mencatatkan perkawinan intereligius tersebut dan menerbitkan kutipan akta perkawinan

Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in Oil Importing Countries: Evidence from Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan

This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between Oil price Shocks and stock markets returns in Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan as oil-importing countries in the MENA region, over the period (2005-2018). Vector auto regressive regressions (VAR), Granger causality tests, and Impulse Response technique are employed to achieve the objectives of the study. Using weekly data, the results point to a causal relation flowing from oil prices to stock market returns in all the three countries under investigation although with different lags and different patterns of the response according to the impulse response function outcomes. These findings have important implications for academics, domestic and international investor, investment manager and policy makers.JEL Codes - Q41; E44; N1

Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Case Study of Korea Investment Corporation

Based on \u201cin-depth study\u201d, the aim of the paper is to investigate Korea Investment Corporation (KIC), a non-commodity Sovereign Wealth Fund, in order to analyze its investment strategies over the time (2005-2012) and evaluate any form of \u201cpolitical bias\u201d. Our results suggest that KIC pursues financial objectives, aiming to maximize the portfolio risk/return relationship, as it manages foreign excess reserves of those managed by Bank of Korea. We also argue that a form of \u2018internal political bias\u2019 affects investment process, as most of the financial resources are managed in-house. Overall, we support the hypothesis that in Korea Investment Corporation both financial and political objectives coexis