Ababaei, Behnam

Derory, Jeremy

Martre, Pierre

University of Queensland eSpace

 Cluster analysis identified four main ETs based on transpiration stress index 
defined as the ratio of actual to potential plant transpiration (Fig. 3).
 The occurrence probability of each ET was determined at the grid level 
(Fig. 4). South-western and south-eastern Europe were the regions which 
were most impacted by drought stress over the last 30 years.
4 Environment Types
◄ Fig. 3 | Patterns of transpiration 
stress index in the four main 
Environment Types (ETs) identified 
across Europe. Inset illustrates the 
occurrence probabilities at the 
continental level. ET1 and ET3 represent 
no and mild stress patterns, 
respectively. ET2 and ET4 represent 
sever drought stress during the stem 
extension period and around anthesis 
and early grain filling, respectively.
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6 References
[1] http://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/DataPortal; [2] FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC, 2012. Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.2). FAO, Rome, Italy and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; [3] Britz W, et al., 2007. Description of the CAPRI modelling 
system. In: Final report of the CAPRI-Dynaspat project. Institute for Food and Resource Economics. University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; [4] Zhao G, et al., 2015. Glob Chang Biol 21, 4031–4048; 
[5] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/agriculture/data/database; [6] Martre P, et al., 2006. Eur J Agron 25, 138-154; [7] http://www1.clermont.inra.fr/siriusquality; 
TYPOLOGY OF DROUGHT STRESS SCENARIOS
AT EUROPEAN LEVEL FOR WHEAT
Behnam Ababaei 1,2, Pierre Martre 1, Jeremy Derory 2
1 INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, UMR0759 LEPSE, F-34 060 Montpellier, France; 2 Limagrain Europe, F-63 720, Chappes, France (Contact: pierre.martre@supagro.inra.fr; behnam.ababaei@limagrain.com)
5 Conclusion & Perspective
 A distributed gridded simulation framework was developed and a clustering approach was used to analyze the typology and occurrence probability of drought 
stress patterns across Europe. Regions with high frequency of severe drought stress were located. Preliminary trend analysis at the continental level shows no 
significant trend in the occurrence probability of the identified Environment Types, but in some countries significant trends were detected.
 A similar approach is currently undertaken for other drought-related indices as well as temperature and N stress indices under past and future climate scenarios. 
An integrated stress index is to be developed to investigate the interaction of co-factors of different natures. 
1 Overview
Characterization of the environment as felt by the crop is important to 
understand genotype by environment interactions and to optimize field trial 
networks. However, a characterization of drought stress scenarios at the EU 
level for wheat is still missing. Here we aimed to:
 Characterize the typology of drought stress patterns and identify 
Environment Types (ETs) across Europe for wheat.
Analyze the occurrence probabilities and temporal trends of the ETs at the 
continental and regional levels.
 Daily weather data (1984-2014) from the JRC-Agri4Cast gridded (25x25 km) 
meteorological database [1], soil data from the Harmonized World Soil 
Database (1x1 km) [2], N application data from the CAPRI database [3] at the 
climate zone level [4], and anthesis date from the JRC-Agri4Cast
2 Data and Simulation Setup
▲ Fig. 1 | Wheat acreage for 
grid cells (25x25 km) with >103 
ha of wheat.
AgroPheno database (25x25 km) were used 
as inputs. Historical yield data at the NUTS2 
level for the period 1985-2010 were 
extracted from the Eurostat agriculture 
database [5].
 The wheat crop model SiriusQuality [6,7] was 
used to simulate crop growth and water 
deficit. Adapted cultivars at each climate zone 
were selected among 28 previously calibrated 
cultivars based on anthesis date and yield 
predictions. JRC grid cells with wheat acreage 
> 103 ha (Fig. 1) and in each grid cell soil 
components > 30 cm deep were considered, 
resulting in 25,528 simulation units. 
3 Prediction of Phenology and Yield
Anthesis, as the most important growth stage, was used to identify eight 
adapted cultivars at the climate zone level (Fig. 2A).
 Simulated grain yield of adapted cultivars aggregated at the NUTS2 level 
compared well with measured grain yield (Fig. 2B).
▲ Fig. 2 | Simulated vs observed (A) anthesis date aggregated at the climate 
zone level (n = 371), and (B) grain yield aggregated at the NUTS2 level (n = 2882).
(A) (B)
 The occurrence probabilities of the ETs over the period 1984-2014 do not show any significant temporal trend across the entire Europe (data not shown).
 In some countries stress patterns show significant trends, like ET1 (increasing) and ET4 (decreasing) in Spain (Fig. 5A), while in others no significant trend was 
detected (e.g. in France, Fig. 5B).
▲ Fig. 5 | Occurrence probabilities of the four main Environment Types (ETs) 
over time for Spain (A) and France (B)
▲ Fig. 4 | Spatial variability of the occurrence probabilities of the four 
main Environment Types (ETs) identified across Europe.
ET1 ET2
ET3 ET4
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Typology of drought stress scenarios at European level for wheat

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Typology of drought stress scenarios at European level for wheat

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