Spartan Random Processes in Time Series Modeling

A Spartan random process (SRP) is used to estimate the correlation structure of time series and to predict (extrapolate) the data values. SRP's are motivated from statistical physics, and they can be viewed as Ginzburg-Landau models. The temporal correlations of the SRP are modeled in terms of `interactions' between the field values. Model parameter inference employs the computationally fast modified method of moments, which is based on matching sample energy moments with the respective stochastic constraints. The parameters thus inferred are then compared with those obtained by means of the maximum likelihood method. The performance of the Spartan predictor (SP) is investigated using real time series of the quarterly S&P 500 index. SP prediction errors are compared with those of the Kolmogorov-Wiener predictor. Two predictors, one of which explicit, are derived and used for extrapolation. The performance of the predictors is similarly evaluated.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, Proceedings of APFA

Relative Convex Hull Determination from Convex Hulls in the Plane

A new algorithm for the determination of the relative convex hull in the plane of a simple polygon A with respect to another simple polygon B which contains A, is proposed. The relative convex hull is also known as geodesic convex hull, and the problem of its determination in the plane is equivalent to find the shortest curve among all Jordan curves lying in the difference set of B and A and encircling A. Algorithms solving this problem known from Computational Geometry are based on the triangulation or similar decomposition of that difference set. The algorithm presented here does not use such decomposition, but it supposes that A and B are given as ordered sequences of vertices. The algorithm is based on convex hull calculations of A and B and of smaller polygons and polylines, it produces the output list of vertices of the relative convex hull from the sequence of vertices of the convex hull of A.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, Conference paper published. We corrected two typing errors in Definition 2: $I_S$ has to be defined based on $O_S$, and $I_E$ has to be defined based on $O_E$ (not just using $O$). These errors appeared in the text of the original conference paper, which also contained the pseudocode of an algorithm where $I_S$ and $I_E$ appeared as correctly define

A hybrid approach for joint simulation of geometallurgical variables with inequality constraint

Geometallurgical variables have a significant impact on downstream activities of mining projects. Reliable 3D spatial modelling of these variables plays an important role in mine planning and mineral processing, in which it can improve the overall viability of the mining projects. This interdisciplinary paradigm involves geology, geostatistics, mineral processing and metallurgy that creates a need for enhanced techniques of modelling. In some circumstances, the geometallurgical responses demonstrate a decent intrinsic correlation that motivates one to use co-estimation or co-simulation approaches rather than independent estimation or simulation. The latter approach allows us to reproduce that dependency characteristic in the final model. In this paper, two problems have been addressed, one is concerning the inequality constraint that might exist among geometallurgical variables, and the second is dealing with difficulty in variogram analysis. To alleviate the first problem, the variables can be converted to new variables free of inequality constraint. The second problem can also be solved by taking into account the minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF) transformation technique which allows defining a hybrid approach of joint simulation rather than conventional method of co-simulation. A case study was carried out for the total and acid soluble copper grades obtained from an oxide copper deposit. Firstly, these two geometallurgical variables are transferred to the new variables without inequality constraint and then MAF analysis is used for joint simulation and modelling. After back transformation of the results, they are compared with traditional approaches of co-simulation, for which they showed that the MAF methodology is able to reproduce the spatial correlation between the variables without loss of generality while the inequality constraint is honored. The results are then post processed to support probabilistic domaining of geometallurgical zones

Wegener Granulomatosis Revealed by Pleural Effusion

Pulmonary signs are common in Wegener's granulomatosis (WG). However, an initial presentation including pleural effusion has not been described. We describe a case of WG in which pleural effusion was the first clinical manifestation. A 45-year-old man with dorsal pain presented with pleural thickening and effusion, and a visible nodule on a thoracic scan. A dense chronic inflammatory infiltrate was obtained by pleural biopsy and an open lung biopsy revealed necrotizing granulomatous vasculitis. Serologies were positive for antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies and antiproteinase 3 antibodies. A diagnosis of WG was conducted and the patient was started on cyclophosphamide and methylprednisolone as an initial treatment, with a favorable evolution. Although pleural effusion is rarely described in WG, this pathology must be considered in the presence of this clinical manifestation

Constituent particle break-up during hot rolling of AA 5182

Article first published online: 17 DEC 2009International audienceAluminum sheet is currently used for body panels on a number of mass-produced vehicles, in particular for closure panels. AA5xxx alloys always contain coarse inter-metallic particles (Al x(Fe,Mn) ySi, Mg 2Si) after casting. In the present work inter-metallic particle break-up during hot reversible rolling of AA5182 alloy sheets has been analyzed. The sizes and shapes of inter-metallic particles in as-cast and industrially hot rolled AA5182 alloys sheets were characterized by 3D X-ray tomography observations. The relation between particle break-up and particle morphology was then analyzed statistically and by a micromechanical finite element (FE)-based model. The essential outcomes of the statistical approach may be summarized as follows. The inter-metallic particle population may be described by five morphological parameters. Secondly the comparison of the particle morphology in as cast and industrially rolled sheets leads to the definition of five classes. The evolution of each particle class as function of the rolling strain is provided. The statistical analysis shows which particles break-up. The stresses and strains in inter-metallic particles, embedded in an elasto-viscoplastic aluminum matrix submitted to plane strain compression, were analyzed by an FE model. A new failure criterion was proposed. The essential outcomes of the mechanical approach are as follows: a precise description of stress concentration mechanisms in nonconvex particles, a close description of the parameters controlling particle break-up, and finally a simplified classification of the failure behavior

Routine molecular profiling of cancer: results of a one-year nationwide program of the French Cooperative Thoracic Intergroup (IFCT) for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

International audienceBackground: The molecular profiling of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for known oncogenic drivers is recommended during routine care. Nationally, however, the feasibility and effects on outcomes of this policy are unknown. We aimed to assess the characteristics, molecular profiles, and clinical outcomes of patients who were screened during a 1-year period by a nationwide programme funded by the French National Cancer Institute. Methods This study included patients with advanced NSCLC, who were routinely screened for EGFR mutations, ALK rearrangements, as well as HER2 (ERBB2), KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations by 28 certified regional genetics centres in France. Patients were assessed consecutively during a 1-year period from April, 2012, to April, 2013. We measured the frequency of molecular alterations in the six routinely screened genes, the turnaround time in obtaining molecular results, and patients' clinical outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01700582. Findings 18 679 molecular analyses of 17 664 patients with NSCLC were done (of patients with known data, median age was 64·5 years [range 18–98], 65% were men, 81% were smokers or former smokers, and 76% had adenocarcinoma). The median interval between the initiation of analysis and provision of the written report was 11 days (IQR 7–16). A genetic alteration was recorded in about 50% of the analyses; EGFR mutations were reported in 1947 (11%) of 17 706 analyses for which data were available, HER2 mutations in 98 (1%) of 11 723, KRAS mutations in 4894 (29%) of 17 001, BRAF mutations in 262 (2%) of 13 906, and PIK3CA mutations in 252 (2%) of 10 678; ALK rearrangements were reported in 388 (5%) of 8134 analyses. The median duration of follow-up at the time of analysis was 24·9 months (95% CI 24·8–25·0). The presence of a genetic alteration affected first-line treatment for 4176 (51%) of 8147 patients and was associated with a significant improvement in the proportion of patients achieving an overall response in first-line treatment (37% [95% CI 34·7–38·2] for presence of a genetic alteration vs 33% [29·5–35·6] for absence of a genetic alteration; p=0·03) and in second-line treatment (17% [15·0–18·8] vs 9% [6·7–11·9]; p<0·0001). Presence of a genetic alteration was also associated with improved first-line progression-free survival (10·0 months [95% CI 9·2–10·7] vs 7·1 months [6·1–7·9]; p<0·0001) and overall survival (16·5 months [15·0–18·3] vs 11·8 months [10·1–13·5]; p<0·0001) compared with absence of a genetic alteration. Interpretation Routine nationwide molecular profiling of patients with advanced NSCLC is feasible. The frequency of genetic alterations, acceptable turnaround times in obtaining analysis results, and the clinical advantage provided by detection of a genetic alteration suggest that this policy provides a clinical benefit

Phase I study of IMGN901, a CD56-targeting antibody-drug conjugate, in patients with CD56-positive solid tumors.

Background IMGN901 is a CD56-targeting antibody-drug conjugate designed for tumor-selective delivery of the cytotoxic maytansinoid DM1. This phase 1 study investigated the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and preliminary activity of IMGN901 in patients with CD56-expressing solid tumors. Methods Patients were enrolled in cohorts of escalating IMGN901 doses, administered intravenously, on 3 consecutive days every 21 days. A dose-expansion phase accrued patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC), Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), or ovarian cancer. Results Fifty-two patients were treated at doses escalating from 4 to 94 mg/m(2)/day. The maximum tolerated dose (MTD) was determined to be 75 mg/m(2). Dose-limiting toxicities included fatigue, neuropathy, headache or meningitis-like symptoms, chest pain, dyspnea, and myalgias. In the dose-expansion phase (n = 45), seven patients received 75 mg/m(2) and 38 received 60 mg/m(2) for up to 21 cycles. The recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) was established at 60 mg/m(2) during dose expansion. Overall, treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were experienced by 96.9 % of all patients, the majority of which were Grade 1 or 2. The most commonly reported Grade 3 or 4 TEAEs were hyponatremia and dyspnea (each 8.2 %). Responses included 1 complete response (CR), 1 clinical CR, and 1 unconfirmed partial response (PR) in MCC; and 1 unconfirmed PR in SCLC. Stable disease was seen for 25 % of all evaluable patients who received doses ≥60 mg/m(2). Conclusions The RP2D for IMGN901 of 60 mg/m(2) administered for 3 consecutive days every 3 weeks was associated with an acceptable tolerability profile. Objective responses were observed in patients with advanced CD56+ cancers