A Three-Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property.

In the United Kingdom, dwelling fires are responsible for the majority of all fire-related fatalities. The development of these incidents involves the interaction of a multitude of variables that combine in many different ways. Consequently, assessment of dwelling fire risk can be complex, which often results in ambiguity during fire safety planning and decision making. In this article, a three-part Bayesian network model is proposed to study dwelling fires from ignition through to extinguishment in order to improve confidence in dwelling fire safety assessment. The model incorporates both hard and soft data, delivering posterior probabilities for selected outcomes. Case studies demonstrate how the model functions and provide evidence of its use for planning and accident investigation

Structural reliability analysis of multiple limit state functions using multi-input multi-output support vector machine

Selecting and using an appropriate structural reliability method is critical for the success of structural reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization. However, most of existing structural reliability methods are developed and designed for a single limit state function and few methods can be used to simultaneously handle multiple limit state functions in a structural system when the failure probability of each limit state function is of interest, for example, in a reliability-based design optimization loop. This article presents a new method for structural reliability analysis with multiple limit state functions using support vector machine technique. A sole support vector machine surrogate model for all limit state functions is constructed by a multi-input multi-output support vector machine algorithm. Furthermore, this multi-input multi-output support vector machine surrogate model for all limit state functions is only trained from one data set with one calculation process, instead of constructing a series of standard support vector machine models which has one output only. Combining the multi-input multi-output support vector machine surrogate model with direct Monte Carlo simulation, the failure probability of the structural system as well as the failure probability of each limit state function corresponding to a failure mode in the structural system can be estimated. Two examples are used to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method

Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis

Dam safety based on risk analysis methodologies demand quantification of the risk of the dam-reservoir system. This means that, for a given initial state of the system, and for the several failure modes considered, it is necessary to estimate the probability of the load events and the conditional probability of response of the system for a given load event, as well as estimating the consequences on the environment for the obtained response of the system. The following paper focuses in the second of these probabilities, that is, quantifying the conditional probability of response of the system, for a given load event, and for the specific case of concrete gravity dams. Dam-reservoir systems have a complex behavior which has been tackled traditionally by simplifications in the formulation of the models and adoption of safety factors. The purpose of the methodology described in this paper is to improve the estimation of the conditional probability of response of the dam-reservoir system for concrete gravity dams, using complex behavior models based on numerical simulation techniques, together with reliability techniques of different levels of precision are applied, including Level 3 reliability techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. The paper includes an example of application of the proposed methodology to a Spanish concrete gravity dam, considering the failure mode of sliding along the rock-concrete interface. In the context of risk analysis, the results obtained for conditional probability of failure allow several conclusions related to their validity and safety implications that acquire a significant relevance due to the innovation of the study performedAltarejos García, L.; Escuder Bueno, I.; Serrano Lombillo, AJ.; Gómez De Membrillera Ortuño, M. (2012). Methodology for estimating the probability of failure by sliding in concrete gravity dams in the context of risk analysis. Structural Safety. 34(1):1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2012.01.001S11334

Proof loading and structural reliability

Structural reliability depends on uncertainties in resistance and loads. In many practical cases the resistance dominates and a reduction of uncertainty about resistance is an effective way of increasing safety. It can be accomplished by proof loading.A truncated distribution is considered and reliability indices are calculated for various proof load levels. The structural reliability is sensitive to proof loading for larger coefficients of variation of resistance.A Bayesian approach is applied to develop a posterior distribution for resistance, after proof loading. Reliability indices are calculated for various ratios of the coefficients of variation of load and resistance.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/24961/1/0000388.pd

Durability design of reinforced concrete structures: a comparison of the use of durability indexes in the deemed-to-satisfy approach and the full-probabilistic approach

Abstract: To show the application of the chloride conductivity index test in service life prediction (SLP) using both the deemed-to-satisfy and probabilistic approaches to performance-based durability design. It is desirable to adopt a performance-based approach with respect to durability design of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. This is based on the perception that the durability of RC is achieved when the limiting value from an established test method is met. In South Africa, the durability index (DI) approach has been developed, which permits performance-based specifications for durability of RC. This approach involves the application of a test method together with a SLP model. This integrated approach links material properties directly with the expected service life of RC structures and environmental conditions. Two DIs are relevant to degradation processes in RC: the chloride conductivity index which is related to chloride ingress, and the oxygen permeability index related to carbonation. The study presented here focuses on the application of the chloride conductivity index as the main input parameter of a SLP model concerned with chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. The methodology and output of the SLP model as applied in the deemed-to-satisfy approach are compared with those of the probabilistic approach. Both approaches are exemplified using a concrete pier cast in situ in a marine environment. The performance-based durability specifications from the deemed-to-satisfy approach are found to be more conservative compared to those of the probabilistic approach

A level II reliability approach to tunnel support design

A reliability approach to tunnel support design is presented in this paper. The aim of the work is the incorporation of classical Level II techniques to the current design method based on the study of the ground-support interaction diagram