Interacting Multiple Try Algorithms with Different Proposal Distributions

We propose a new class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms designed for increasing the efficiency of a modified multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm. The extension with respect to the existing MCMC literature is twofold. The sampler proposed extends the basic MTM algorithm by allowing different proposal distributions in the multiple-try generation step. We exploit the structure of the MTM algorithm with different proposal distributions to naturally introduce an interacting MTM mechanism (IMTM) that expands the class of population Monte Carlo methods. We show the validity of the algorithm and discuss the choice of the selection weights and of the different proposals. We provide numerical studies which show that the new algorithm can perform better than the basic MTM algorithm and that the interaction mechanism allows the IMTM to efficiently explore the state space

Estimating Discrete Markov Models From Various Incomplete Data Schemes

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a case, the estimation of transition probabilities is straightforwardly made by counting one-step moves from a given state to another. In many real-life problems, however, the inference is much more difficult as state sequences are not fully observed, namely the state of each individual is known only for some given values of the time variable. A review of the problem is given, focusing on Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms to perform Bayesian inference and evaluate posterior distributions of the transition probabilities in this missing-data framework. Leaning on the dependence between the rows of the transition matrix, an adaptive MCMC mechanism accelerating the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is then proposed and empirically studied.Comment: 26 pages - preprint accepted in 20th February 2012 for publication in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (please cite the journal's paper

Linear mixed-effects models for central statistical monitoring of multicenter clinical trials.

Multicenter studies are widely used to meet accrual targets in clinical trials. Clinical data monitoring is required to ensure the quality and validity of the data gathered across centers. One approach to this end is central statistical monitoring, which aims at detecting atypical patterns in the data by means of statistical methods. In this context, we consider the simple case of a continuous variable, and we propose a detection procedure based on a linear mixed-effects model to detect location differences between each center and all other centers. We describe the performance of the procedure as a function of contamination rate and signal-to-noise ratio. We investigate the effect of center size and variance structure and illustrate the use of the procedure using data from two multicenter clinical trials. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

On regional unemployment : an empirical examination of the determinants of geographical differentials in the UK

In this paper we consider the determinants of regional disparities in unemployment rates for the UK regions at NUTS-II level. We use a mixture panel data model to describe unemployment differentials between heterogeneous groups of regions. The results indicate the existence of two clusters of regions in the UK economy, characterized by high and low unemployment rates, respectively. A major source of heterogeneity appears to be caused by the varying effect (between the two clusters) of the share of employment in the service sector, and we trace its origin to the fact that the high unemployment cluster is characterized by a higher degree of urbanization