Earnings Prediction with Deep Leaning

In the financial sector, a reliable forecast the future financial performance of a company is of great importance for investors' investment decisions. In this paper we compare long-term short-term memory (LSTM) networks to temporal convolution network (TCNs) in the prediction of future earnings per share (EPS). The experimental analysis is based on quarterly financial reporting data and daily stock market returns. For a broad sample of US firms, we find that both LSTMs outperform the naive persistent model with up to 30.0% more accurate predictions, while TCNs achieve and an improvement of 30.8%. Both types of networks are at least as accurate as analysts and exceed them by up to 12.2% (LSTM) and 13.2% (TCN).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to KI202

Understanding and controlling asthma in Latin America: A review of recent research informed by the SCAALA programme.

Asthma is an important health concern in Latin America (LA) where it is associated with variable prevalence and disease burden between countries. High prevalence and morbidity have been observed in some regions, particularly marginalized urban populations. Research over the past 10 years from LA has shown that childhood disease is primarily non-atopic. The attenuation of atopy may be explained by enhanced immune regulation induced by intense exposures to environmental factors such as childhood infections and poor environmental conditions of the urban poor. Non-atopic symptoms are associated with environmental and lifestyle factors including poor living conditions, respiratory infections, psychosocial stress, obesity, and a diet of highly processed foods. Ancestry (particularly African) and genetic factors increase asthma risk, and some of these factors may be specific to LA settings. Asthma in LA tends to be poorly controlled and depends on access to health care and medications. There is a need to improve management and access to medication through primary health care. Future research should consider the heterogeneity of asthma to identify relevant endotypes and underlying causes. The outcome of such research will need to focus on implementable strategies relevant to populations living in resource-poor settings where the disease burden is greatest

Social interaction, noise and antibiotic-mediated switches in the intestinal microbiota

The intestinal microbiota plays important roles in digestion and resistance against entero-pathogens. As with other ecosystems, its species composition is resilient against small disturbances but strong perturbations such as antibiotics can affect the consortium dramatically. Antibiotic cessation does not necessarily restore pre-treatment conditions and disturbed microbiota are often susceptible to pathogen invasion. Here we propose a mathematical model to explain how antibiotic-mediated switches in the microbiota composition can result from simple social interactions between antibiotic-tolerant and antibiotic-sensitive bacterial groups. We build a two-species (e.g. two functional-groups) model and identify regions of domination by antibiotic-sensitive or antibiotic-tolerant bacteria, as well as a region of multistability where domination by either group is possible. Using a new framework that we derived from statistical physics, we calculate the duration of each microbiota composition state. This is shown to depend on the balance between random fluctuations in the bacterial densities and the strength of microbial interactions. The singular value decomposition of recent metagenomic data confirms our assumption of grouping microbes as antibiotic-tolerant or antibiotic-sensitive in response to a single antibiotic. Our methodology can be extended to multiple bacterial groups and thus it provides an ecological formalism to help interpret the present surge in microbiome data.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures accepted for publication in Plos Comp Bio. Supplementary video and information availabl

Treatment of reducible unstable fractures of the distal radius in adults: a randomised controlled trial of De Palma percutaneous pinning versus bridging external fixation

Background: At present, there is no conclusive evidence regarding the best treatment method for reducible unstable fractures of the distal radius. This study compared the effectiveness of two methods used in surgical treatment of such fractures: percutaneous pinning and external fixation.Methods: We randomly allocated 100 patients into two groups treated surgically with modified de Palma percutaneous pinning and bridging external fixation. Independent but not blinded evaluators administered the DASH quality-of-life questionnaire at postoperative months 6 and 24, performed functional assessment of pain, range of motion, and palm grip strength, and radiographic examinations (volar and radial angle, and height of the radius) before the operation, immediately afterwards, and at 6 and 24 months postoperative. Modified de Palma percutaneous pinning patients used an above-elbow cast whereas external fixation group had unrestricted elbow motion after surgery. Patients who for any reason demonstrated treatment failure or required additional interventions were followed up and their results were included in the group into which these patients had initially been randomised according to the intention-to-treat principle. A significance level of 5% (alpha = 0.05). was used for all statistical tests, such that tests presenting a p-value less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant.Results: Ninety one (58.8 mean age and 66 participants were female) were included in the final assessment at 24 months. the DASH questionnaire evaluation showed a statistically significant result favouring the de Palma group (mean difference = -7.1 p = 0.044) after six months, but this was not maintained at 24 months. There were no statistically differences between the groups with respect to palm grip strength. Analysis of the range-of-motion limitation index (uninjured side minus affected side motion of) showed a statistical difference (mean difference = 2.4 p = 0.043) favoring the external fixator group with regard to the supination movement 6 months after the operation; however, this was not maintained at 24 months. the final results of the radiographic evaluation were similar for the two groups. Overall, five patients developed complications: two with de Palma pinning and three with external fixation.Conclusion: There was a small statistically significant difference favouring the de Palma method in early functional at 6 months according to the DASH questionnaire, and for supination movement favouring the fixator group. However, both were not clinical relevant. By 24 months the groups were similar for all outcome

Variable-temperature, variable-field magnetic circular dichroism spectroscopic study of NifEN-bound precursor and “FeMoco”

NifEN plays a key role in the biosynthesis of the iron–molybdenum cofactor (FeMoco) of nitrogenase. A scaffold protein that hosts the conversion of a FeMoco precursor to a mature cofactor, NifEN can assume three conformations during the process of FeMoco maturation. One, designated ΔnifB NifEN, contains only two permanent [Fe4S4]-like clusters. The second, designated NifENPrecursor, contains the permanent clusters and a precursor form of FeMoco. The third, designated NifEN“FeMoco”, contains the permanent [Fe4S4]-like clusters and a fully complemented, “FeMoco”-like structure. Here, we report a variable-temperature, variable-field magnetic circular dichroism spectroscopic investigation of the electronic structure of the metal clusters in the three forms of dithionite-reduced NifEN. Our data indicate that the permanent [Fe4S4]-like clusters are structurally and electronically conserved in all three NifEN species and exhibit spectral features of classic [Fe4S4]+ clusters; however, they are present in a mixed spin state with a small contribution from the S > ½ spin state. Our results also suggest that both the precursor and “FeMoco” have a conserved Fe/S electronic structure that is similar to the electronic structure of FeMoco in the MoFe protein, and that the “FeMoco” in NifEN“FeMoco” exists, predominantly, in an S = 3/2 spin state with spectral parameters identical to those of FeMoco in the MoFe protein. These observations provide strong support to the outcome of our previous EPR and X-ray absorption spectroscopy/extended X-ray absorption fine structure analysis of the three NifEN species while providing significant new insights into the unique electronic properties of the precursor and “FeMoco” in NifEN

The yeast P5 type ATPase, Spf1, regulates manganese transport into the endoplasmic reticulum

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is a large, multifunctional and essential organelle. Despite intense research, the function of more than a third of ER proteins remains unknown even in the well-studied model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae. One such protein is Spf1, which is a highly conserved, ER localized, putative P-type ATPase. Deletion of SPF1 causes a wide variety of phenotypes including severe ER stress suggesting that this protein is essential for the normal function of the ER. The closest homologue of Spf1 is the vacuolar P-type ATPase Ypk9 that influences Mn2+ homeostasis. However in vitro reconstitution assays with Spf1 have not yielded insight into its transport specificity. Here we took an in vivo approach to detect the direct and indirect effects of deleting SPF1. We found a specific reduction in the luminal concentration of Mn2+ in ∆spf1 cells and an increase following it’s overexpression. In agreement with the observed loss of luminal Mn2+ we could observe concurrent reduction in many Mn2+-related process in the ER lumen. Conversely, cytosolic Mn2+-dependent processes were increased. Together, these data support a role for Spf1p in Mn2+ transport in the cell. We also demonstrate that the human sequence homologue, ATP13A1, is a functionally conserved orthologue. Since ATP13A1 is highly expressed in developing neuronal tissues and in the brain, this should help in the study of Mn2+-dependent neurological disorders

The C-terminal region of Trypanosoma cruzi MASPs is antigenic and secreted via exovesicles.

Trypanosoma cruzi is the etiological agent of Chagas disease, a neglected and emerging tropical disease, endemic to South America and present in non-endemic regions due to human migration. The MASP multigene family is specific to T. cruzi, accounting for 6% of the parasite's genome and plays a key role in immune evasion. A common feature of MASPs is the presence of two conserved regions: an N-terminal region codifying for signal peptide and a C-terminal (C-term) region, which potentially acts as GPI-addition signal peptide. Our aim was the analysis of the presence of an immune response against the MASP C-term region. We found that this region is highly conserved, released via exovesicles (EVs) and has an associated immune response as revealed by epitope affinity mapping, IFA and inhibition of the complement lysis assays. We also demonstrate the presence of a fast IgM response in Balb/c mice infected with T. cruzi. Our results reveal the presence of non-canonical secreted peptides in EVs, which can subsequently be exposed to the immune system with a potential role in evading immune system targets in the parasite