Machine learning models to predict myocardial infarctions from past climatic and environmental conditions

Myocardial infarctions (MIs) are a major cause of death worldwide, and both high and low temperatures (i.e. heat and cold) may increase the risk of MI. The relationship between health impacts and climate is complex and influenced by a multitude of climatic, environmental, sociodemographic and behavioural factors. Here, we present a machine learning (ML) approach for predicting MI events based on multiple environmental and demographic variables. We derived data on MI events from the KORA MI registry dataset for Augsburg, Germany, between 1998 and 2015.Multivariable predictors include weather and climate, air pollution (PM10, NO, NO2, SO2 and O3), surrounding vegetation and demographic data. We tested the following ML regression algorithms: decision tree, random forest, multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting and ridge regression. The models are able to predict the total annual number of MIs reasonably well (adjusted R2 = 0.62–0.71). Inter-annual variations and long-term trends are captured. Across models the most important predictors are air pollution and daily temperatures. Variables not related to environmental conditions, such as demographics need to be considered as well. This ML approachprovides a promising basis to model future MI under changing environmental conditions, as projected by scenarios for climate and other environmental changes

Sustainability of the global sand system in the Anthropocene

Sand, gravel, and crushed rock, together referred to as construction aggregates, are the most extracted solid materials. Growing demand is damaging ecosystems, triggering social conflicts, and fueling concerns over sand scarcity. Balancing protection efforts and extraction to meet society's needs requires designing sustainable pathways at a system level. Here, we present a perspective on global sand sustainability that shifts the focus from the mining site to the entire sand-supply network (SSN) of a region understood as a coupled human-natural system whose backbone is the physical system of construction aggregates. We introduce the idea of transitions in sand production from subsistence mining toward larger-scale regional supply systems that include mega-quarries for crushed rock, marine dredging, and recycled secondary materials. We discuss claims of an imminent global sand scarcity, evaluate whether new mining frontiers such as Greenland could alleviate it, and highlight three action fields to foster a sustainable global sand system

Metabolomic profiles predict individual multidisease outcomes

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Risk stratification is critical for the early identification of high-risk individuals and disease prevention. Here we explored the potential of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy-derived metabolomic profiles to inform on multidisease risk beyond conventional clinical predictors for the onset of 24 common conditions, including metabolic, vascular, respiratory, musculoskeletal and neurological diseases and cancers. Specifically, we trained a neural network to learn disease-specific metabolomic states from 168 circulating metabolic markers measured in 117,981 participants with ~1.4 million person-years of follow-up from the UK Biobank and validated the model in four independent cohorts. We found metabolomic states to be associated with incident event rates in all the investigated conditions, except breast cancer. For 10-year outcome prediction for 15 endpoints, with and without established metabolic contribution, a combination of age and sex and the metabolomic state equaled or outperformed established predictors. Moreover, metabolomic state added predictive information over comprehensive clinical variables for eight common diseases, including type 2 diabetes, dementia and heart failure. Decision curve analyses showed that predictive improvements translated into clinical utility for a wide range of potential decision thresholds. Taken together, our study demonstrates both the potential and limitations of NMR-derived metabolomic profiles as a multidisease assay to inform on the risk of many common diseases simultaneously.Peer reviewe

Healthy living on a healthy planet - Summary

Unsere Lebensweise macht krank und zerstört die natürlichen Lebensgrundlagen. In der Vision „Gesund leben auf einer gesunden Erde“ werden menschliche Lebensbereiche – Ernähren, Bewegen, Wohnen – gesund und umweltverträglich gestaltet sowie planetare Risiken – Klimawandel, Biodiversitätsverlust, Verschmutzung – bewältigt. Gesundheitssysteme nutzen ihre transformativen Potenziale, Bildung und Wissenschaft befördern gesellschaftliche Veränderungen. Die Vision ist nur mit internationaler Kooperation realisierbar und erfordert eine globale Dringlichkeitsgovernance.Our lifestyle is making us ill and is destroying the natural life-support systems. In the vision of ‘healthy living on a healthy planet’, human spheres of life – what we eat, how we move, where we live – are designed to be both healthy and environmentally compatible, and planetary risks – climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution – have been overcome. Health systems harness their transformative potential; education and science promote societal change. The vision can only be realized with international cooperation and requires what the WBGU terms global urgency governance

Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Europe: The Past and the Future

Purpose Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a frequent, complex disorder in elderly of European ancestry. Risk profiles and treatment options have changed considerably over the years, which may have affected disease prevalence and outcome. We determined the prevalence of early and late AMD in Europe from 1990 to 2013 using the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium, and made projections for the future. Design Meta-analysis of prevalence data. Participants A total of 42 080 individuals 40 years of age and older participating in 14 population-based cohorts from 10 countries in Europe. Methods AMD was diagnosed based on fundus photographs using the Rotterdam Classification. Prevalence of early and late AMD was calculated using random-effects meta-analysis stratified for age, birth cohort, gender, geographic region, and time period of the study. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was compared between late AMD subtypes; geographic atrophy (GA) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV). Main Outcome Measures Prevalence of early and late AMD, BCVA, and number of AMD cases. Results Prevalence of early AMD increased from 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%–5.0%) in those aged 55–59 years to 17.6% (95%

Blumen auf fremdem Boden : für die heimatliche Jugend gesammelt

von einem LuzernerFrontispiz Kreidelithographie, lithographierter Titel, HolzschnittvignettenAnonym erschienen. In diesem Exemplar sind die Seiten 57-62 falsch gebunden. Die Reihenfolge der Seiten lautet folgendermassen (Fehlbindung): S. 50-57-58-59-60-61-62-51-52-53-54-55-56-63-64-65. - Aus dem Vorwort: "Mein erster Zweck ist Liebe zur Heimath, als Land der Freyheit, einzuflössen und zu beleben; ihr musst du den ersten Platz in deinem Herzen anweisen. Zweytens möchte ich damit bezwecken, dass du auch das Gute, was aus der Fremde kommt, nicht verkennest, oder nur darum, weil es nicht einheimisch ist, geringschätzest, sondern das Schöne und Edle, von wem es auch immer kommen mag, liebest, und dir zum Muster aufstellest." - Enthält neben dem Vorwort 38 historische Beispielerzählungen und Anekdoten aus verschiedenen europäischen und aussereuropäischen Ländern

Bilder der Vorzeit und Gegenwart : Ein Festgeschenk für die reifere Jugend

Mit sechs schönen LithographienFrontispiz und 5 Tafeln in FederlithographieAus dem Vorwort: "Da ich kein des denkenden Wesens würdigeres Gefühl kenne, als Liebe zum Vaterland, so mache ich es mir zur Aufgabe, unter gewissenhafter Berücksichtigung dessen, was Moral und gesellschaftliche Verhältnisse gebieten, das jugendliche Herz für Freiheit und Unabhängigkeit, in den Schranken der Gesetze, zu entflammen." - Inhalt: Verzeichnis "berühmter Gelehrten älterer und neuerer Zeiten", jeweils mit Namen, Nationalität und Todesdatum; sechs Gedichte; zwei Fabeln; drei längere Erzählungen; eine Reisebeschreibung mit dem Titel "Ein zweitägiger Ausflug in den Kanton Unterwalden". Die Gedichte sind in Mundart verfasst und behandeln vorwiegend Schweizer Themen wie etwa das Glöcklein in der Tellskapelle oder eine verpflanzte Alpenrose. Bei den drei Erzählungen handelt es sich um eine historische Erzählung über die Zerstörung der Rotenburg 1385, um eine unglückliche Liebesgeschichte und um eine in Holland spielende Novelle, in der der Autor laut Vorwort "die liebe Jugend ein wenig über die Grenzen der Heimath hinausführen [möchte], damit sie sich mit fremden Sitten und Gebräuchen bekannt mache und überzeuge, dass es auch in der Ferne achtungswürdige gute Menschen gibt [...]". Die Lithographien zeigen Schweizer Ansichten und die Eroberung der Rotenburg

Skizzen von der Insel Java und den verschiedenen Bewohnern derselben

von J.J.X. Pyffer zu Neuec