sifds: Swedish inflation forecast data set 1999:Q2–2005:Q2

A data set consisting of 25 forecasts (1999–2005) by Sveriges Riksbank (RB) and 18 forecasts (2001–2005) by Konjunkturinstitutet (KI) for Swedish inflation rates measured as CPI and KPIX.Inflation forecast data; inflation data; Sweden; CPI; KPIX; SIFDS

Decentralising Public Goods Production

Decentralised decisions, to a bureau with a given budget, about the production of public goods is analysed within a general equilibrium model with a representative agent and no pure profits. It is shown that decentralisation (i) does not necessarily imply aggregate production effciency and (ii) need not be optimal even if all public goods are neutral. Also, cost benefit criteria are derived and the marginal cost of public funds is characterised.Cost benefit criteria; marginal cost of public funds; production effciency; delegation; decentralisation.

Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Marginal Cost of Public Funds

The marginal cost of public funds defined as the ratio between the shadow price of tax revenues and the population average of the social marginal utility of income, is analysed within an explicit cost–benefit context. It is shown that for an optimal tax system the measure is always equal to one. Benefit and cost measures congruent with this definition are derived. Under optimal taxes a positive net social benefit is a necessary and sufficient condition for a project that passes the cost–benefit test. Under non–optimal taxes this is not the case: If taxes are too low a positive net social benefit is a necessary but not sufficient condition and if taxes are too high a sufficient but not necessary condition for an accepted project.Cost–benefit; optimal taxation; marginal cost of public funds

Sveriges Riksbank's Inflation Interval Forecasts 1999-2005

Are Sveriges Riksbank's inflation (CPI and KPIX) interval forecasts calibrated in the sense that the intervals cover realised inflation with the stated ex ante coverage probabilities 50, 75 and 90 percent? In total 150 interval forecast 1999:Q2-2005:Q2 are assessed for CPI and KPIX. The main result is that the forecast uncertainty is understated, but there are substantial differences between individual forecast origins and inflation measures.Inflation; forecast; interval forecast; forecast uncertainty

Are Inflation Forecasts from Major Swedish Forecasters Biased?

Inflation forecasts made 1999-2005 by Sveriges Riksbank and Konjunkturinstitet of Swedish inflation rates 1999-2007 are tested for unbiasedness; i.e., are the mean forecast errors zero? The bias is in the order of -0.1 percentage units for horizons below one year and in the order of 0.1 and 0.6 (depending on inflation measure) above one year. Using the maximum entropy bootstrap for inference bias is significant whereas inference using HAC indicates insignificance.Forecast evaluation; inflation; unbiasedness; maximum entropy bootstrap

Fermionic behavior of ideal anyons

We prove upper and lower bounds on the ground-state energy of the ideal two-dimensional anyon gas. Our bounds are extensive in the particle number, as for fermions, and linear in the statistics parameter $\alpha$. The lower bounds extend to Lieb-Thirring inequalities for all anyons except bosons.Comment: 16 page

Overview of the NASA high power laser program

The overall objectives of the NASA High Power Laser Program are reviewed along with their structure and center responsibilities. Present and future funding, laser power transmission in space, selected program highlights, the research and technology schedule, and the expected pace of the program are briefly considered

Local exclusion and Lieb-Thirring inequalities for intermediate and fractional statistics

In one and two spatial dimensions there is a logical possibility for identical quantum particles different from bosons and fermions, obeying intermediate or fractional (anyon) statistics. We consider applications of a recent Lieb-Thirring inequality for anyons in two dimensions, and derive new Lieb-Thirring inequalities for intermediate statistics in one dimension with implications for models of Lieb-Liniger and Calogero-Sutherland type. These inequalities follow from a local form of the exclusion principle valid for such generalized exchange statistics.Comment: Revised and accepted version. 49 pages, 2 figure