Quantifying fault interpretation uncertainties and their impact on fault seal and seismic hazard analysis

We would like to thank DugInsight for the provision of an academic license for their software package. We would like to thank Emma Miche and two anomalous reviewers for constructive feedback on the original version of the manuscipt.Peer reviewe

Influence of Fault System Geometry and Slip Rates on the Relative Role of Coseismic and Interseismic Stresses on Earthquake Triggering and Recurrence Variability

We model Coulomb stress transfer (CST) due to 30 strong earthquakes occurring on normal faults since 1509 CE in Calabria, Italy, including the influence of interseismic loading, and compare the results to existing studies of stress interaction from the Central and Southern Apennines, Italy. The three normal fault systems have different geometries and long‐term slip‐rates. We investigate the extent to which stress transfer can influence the occurrence of future earthquakes and what factors may govern the variability in earthquake recurrence in different fault systems. The Calabrian, Central Apennines, and Southern Apennines fault systems have 91%, 73%, and 70% of faults with mean positive cumulative CST in the time considered; this is due to fewer faults across strike, more across strike stress reductions, and greater along‐strike spacing in the three regions respectively. In regions with close along strike spacing or few faults across strike, such as Calabria and Southern Apennines, the stress loading history is mostly dominated by interseismic loading and most faults are positively stressed before an earthquake occur on them (96% of all faults that ruptured in Calabria; 94% of faults in Southern Apennines), and some of the strongest earthquakes occur on faults with the highest mean cumulative stress of all faults prior to the earthquake. In the Central Apennines, where across strike interactions are the predominant process, 79% of earthquakes occur on faults positively stressed. The results highlight that fault system geometry plays a central role in characterizing the stress evolution associated with earthquake recurrence

Surface faulting earthquake clustering controlled by fault and shear-zone interactions

Surface faulting earthquakes are known to cluster in time from historical and palaeoseismic studies, but the mechanism(s) responsible for clustering, such as fault interaction, strain-storage, and evolving dynamic topography, are poorly quantified, and hence not well understood. We present a quantified replication of observed earthquake clustering in central Italy. Six active normal faults are studied using 36Cl cosmogenic dating, revealing out-of-phase periods of high or low surface slip-rate on neighboring structures that we interpret as earthquake clusters and anticlusters. Our calculations link stress transfer caused by slip averaged over clusters and anti-clusters on coupled fault/shear-zone structures to viscous flow laws. We show that (1) differential stress fluctuates during fault/shear-zone interactions, and (2) these fluctuations are of sufficient magnitude to produce changes in strain-rate on viscous shear zones that explain slip-rate changes on their overlying brittle faults. These results suggest that fault/shear-zone interactions are a plausible explanation for clustering, opening the path towards process-led seismic hazard assessments

Closing crack earthquakes within the Krafla caldera, North Iceland

Moment tensor analysis with a Bayesian approach was used to analyse a non-double-couple (non-DC) earthquake ($M_w$ ~ 1) with a high isotropic (implosive) component within the Krafla caldera, Iceland. We deduce that the earthquake was generated by a closing crack at depth. The event is well located, with high signal-to-noise ratio and shows dilatational $P$-wave first arrivals at all stations where the first arrival can be picked with confidence. Coverage of the focal sphere is comprehensive and the source mechanism stable across the full range of uncertainties. The non-DC event lies within a cluster of microseismic activity including many DC events. Hence, we conclude that it is a true non-DC closing crack earthquake as a result of geothermal utilization and observed magma chamber deflation in the region at present.Natural Environment Research Council (Grant ID: NE/H025006/1

Paleoseismological Findings at a New Trench Indicate the 1714 M8.1 Earthquake Ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust Over all the Bhutan Himalaya

The 1714 Bhutan earthquake was one of the largest in the Himalaya in the last millennium. We show that the surface rupture caused by this earthquake extended further to the east than previously known, it was at least 175 km long, with slip exceeding 11 m at our study site. The age of the surface rupture was constrained by a combination of radiocarbon and traditional optically stimulated luminescence dating of affected river sediments. Computations using empirical scaling relationships, fitting historical observations and paleoseismic data, yielded a plausible magnitude of Mw 8.1 +/- 0.4 and placed the hypocentre of the 1714 Bhutan earthquake on the flat segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the basal decollement of the Himalayan orogen. Calculations of Coulomb stress transfer indicate that great earthquakes along the leading part of the MHT would cause surface rupture. In contrast, distal earthquakes may not immediately trigger surface rupture, although they would increase the stresses in the leading part of the MHT, facilitating future surface-rupturing earthquakes. Frontal earthquakes would also transfer stress into the modern foreland basin facilitating southward propagation of the MHT as a blind basal decollement. In conclusion, studies of surface-rupturing events alone likely underestimate the seismic slip along the Himalayan megathrust.ISSN:2296-646