Genetic algorithms for condition-based maintenance optimization under uncertainty

International audienceThis paper proposes and compares different techniques for maintenance optimization based on Genetic Algorithms (GA), when the parameters of the maintenance model are affected by uncertainty and the fitness values are represented by Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs). The main issues addressed to tackle this problem are the development of a method to rank the uncertain fitness values, and the definition of a novel Pareto dominance concept. The GA-based methods are applied to a practical case study concerning the setting of a condition-based maintenance policy on the degrading nozzles of a gas turbine operated in an energy production plant

A sensitivity analysis for the adequacy assessment of a multi-state physics modeling approach for reliability analysis

In this work, a moment-independent Sensitivity Analysis (SA) based on Hellinger distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence is proposed to identify the component of a system most affecting its reliability (Diaconis et al., 1982; Gibbs et al., 2002; Di Maio et al., 2014). This result is used to adequately allocate modeling efforts on the most important component that, therefore, deserves a component-level Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) to be integrated into a system-level model, to estimate the system failure probability

A fuzzy expectation maximization based method for estimating the parameters of a multi-state degradation model from imprecise maintenance outcomes

Multi-State (MS) reliability models are used in practice to describe the evolution of degradation in industrial components and systems. To estimate the MS model parameters, we propose a method based on the Fuzzy Expectation-Maximization (FEM) algorithm, which integrates the evidence of the field inspection outcomes with information taken from the maintenance operators about the transition times from one state to another. Possibility distributions are used to describe the imprecision in the expert statements. A procedure for estimating the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) based on the MS model and conditional on such imprecise evidence is, then, developed. The proposed method is applied to a case study concerning the degradation of pipe welds in the coolant system of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The obtained results show that the combination of field data with expert knowledge can allow reducing the uncertainty in degradation estimation and RUL prediction

Resistance-based probabilistic design by order statistics for an oil and gas deep-water well casing string affected by wear during kick load

Deep-water wells for oil and gas extraction make structural components, such as casing and tubing, work in extremely harsh environmental conditions that accelerate component degradation and increase failure probability. Therefore, it is important to properly design casing strings under these operative circumstances (Baraldi et al., 2012)

Analysis of the safety efficiency of a road network: a real case study

In this paper, recently introduced topological measures of interconnection and efficiency of network systems are applied to the safety analysis of the road transport system of the Province of Piacenza in Italy. The vulnerability of the network is evaluated with respect to the loss of a road link, e.g. due to a car accident, road work or other jamming occurrences. Eventually, the improvement in the global and local safety indicators following the implementation of a road development plan is evaluated

Risk assessment of a bulk cryogenic tank: Beyond the Leak-Before-Break criterion

International audienceThe increase in the size and production capacity of air separation plants has boosted the need of developing methodologies to properly assess the risk related to major releases of liquefied gas. In this respect, the Leak-Before-Break (LBB) assessment is currently adopted to demonstrate the safety of the structures containing liquefied gas, under the assumption that the tank is always operated in nominal conditions. This assumption is questioned in this paper, which proposes a new methodology for the assessment of the risks related to cryogenic tank catastrophic rupture. The methodology provides a comprehensive understanding of the issues associated to the worst case rupture scenario: from the investigation of the causes of the undesirable operating conditions up to the analysis of the associated structural consequences, within a probabilistic framewo

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR SELECTING PREFERRED SOLUTIONS IN MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING

ISBN : 978-94-91216-77-0In multiobjective optimization problems, the identified Pareto Frontiers and Sets often contain too many solutions, which make it difficult for the decision maker to select a preferred alternative. To facilitate the selection task, decision making support tools can be used in different instances of the multiobjective optimization search to introduce preferences on the objectives or to give a condensed representation of the solutions on the Pareto Frontier, so as to offer to the decision maker a manageable picture of the solution alternatives. This paper presents a comparison of some a priori and a posteriori decision making support methods, aimed at aiding the decision maker in the selection of the preferred solutions. The considered methods are compared with respect to their application to a case study concerning the optimization of the test intervals of the components of a safety system of a nuclear power plant. The engine for the multiobjective optimization search is based on genetic algorithms

Ecological network analysis and optimization of resilience and efficiency for electric power systems design

The simultaneous increase in natural disasters and human dependence on critical infrastructures for essential services such as water, electricity, etc., places ever-increasing demands on the reliable, safe, resilient design and operation of these infrastructures, with a trade-off between continuity of supply (safety and resilience) and quality of supply (reliability and efficiency) at limited cost. With this in mind, a new methodology for the analysis of electric power systems inspired by natural ecosystems is proposed here and applied to representative systems from literature. Information theory is used to quantify the results of the ecological network analysis (ENA) performed. The analysis shows that electric power systems are more efficient than reliable and vulnerable to disasters. A flow matrix is constructed from the available IEEE systems data, quantified and analyzed using information theory, and finally validated by contingency analysis and SCOPF analysis. The original network configurations are compared to random generated topologies. Comparisons are also made with ENA-inspired configurations. The latter show significantly fewer violations in each contingency scenario compared to the original configurations, further supporting the use of ENA to balance power system efficiency and resilience. Thus, ENA can be used to develop power systems with balanced efficiency and resilience