A Stochastic Analysis of Proposals for the New US Farm Bill

Most of the large scale modeling systems used in the analysis of agricultural policies produce deterministic projections. In reality, however, the agricultural sector is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as a result of fluctuations in exogenous factors such as the weather or macroeconomic variation. A stochastic approach can provide additional information to policy makers regarding the implications of this uncertainty, through the use of stochastically generated projections. This paper also shows how deterministic analysis may result in systematic errors in the projection of some variables. As an applied example, the FAPRI model of the US agricultural sector is simulated stochastically to analyse the impact of proposals for the new US farm bill.Stochastic simulation, US Farm Bill, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy,

A MEMS viscometer for unadulterated human blood

The design and theoretical modelling of an oscillating micro-mechanical-viscometer designed for the measurement of whole unadulterated human blood, is described. The proposed device utilises the dependence of the squeeze-film damping ratio on properties of the surrounding fluid to measure fluid viscosity using an oscillating plate structure. The optimum geometrical configuration for the device structure has been investigated and a methodology for defining the optimum configuration of the micro-mechanical sensor identified. This is then applied to calculate the predicted noise equivalent viscosity change . It was found that the device performance is limited by electronic noise within the detection circuitry rather than thermal mechanical noise. An electronic noise limited measurement resolution of , is predicted for measurement over a shear range of , at a measurement bandwidth of . The linearity of response of the micro-mechanical-viscometer is considered and the device is predicted to provide a linear measurement response

Substructures in lens galaxies: PG1115+080 and B1555+375, two fold configurations

We study the anomalous flux ratio which is observed in some four-image lens systems, where the source lies close to a fold caustic. In this case two of the images are close to the critical curve and their flux ratio should be equal to unity, instead in several cases the observed value differs significantly. The most plausible solution is to invoke the presence of substructures, as for instance predicted by the Cold Dark Matter scenario, located near the two images. In particular, we analyze the two fold lens systems PG1115+080 and B1555+375, for which there are not yet satisfactory models which explain the observed anomalous flux ratios. We add to a smooth lens model, which reproduces well the positions of the images but not the anomalous fluxes, one or two substructures described as singular isothermal spheres. For PG1115+080 we consider a smooth model with the influence of the group of galaxies described by a SIS and a substructure with mass $\sim 10^{5} M_{\odot}$ as well as a smooth model with an external shear and one substructure with mass $\sim 10^{8} M_{\odot}$ . For B1555+375 either a strong external shear or two substructures with mass $\sim 10^{7} M_{\odot}$ reproduce the data quite well.Comment: 26 pages, updated bibliography, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Scienc

The value of facial attractiveness for encouraging fruit and vegetable consumption: analyses from a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: An effect of increased fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption on facial attractiveness has been proposed and recommended as a strategy to promote FV intakes, but no studies to date demonstrate a causal link between FV consumption and perceived attractiveness. This study investigated perceptions of attractiveness before and after the supervised consumption of 2, 5 or 8 FV portions/day for 4 weeks in 30 low FV consumers. Potential mechanisms for change via skin colour and perceived skin healthiness were also investigated. METHODS: Faces were photographed at the start and end of the 4 week intervention in controlled conditions. Seventy-three independent individuals subsequently rated all 60 photographs in a randomized order, for facial attractiveness, facial skin yellowness, redness, healthiness, clarity, and symmetry. RESULTS: Using clustered multiple regression, FV consumption over the previous 4 weeks had no direct effect on attractiveness, but, for female faces, some evidence was found for an indirect impact, via linear and non-linear changes in skin yellowness. Effect sizes, however, were small. No association between FV consumption and skin healthiness was found, but skin healthiness was associated with facial attractiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Controlled and objectively measured increases in FV consumption for 4 weeks resulted indirectly in increased attractiveness in females via increases in skin yellowness, but effects are small and gradually taper as FV consumption increases. Based on the effect sizes from this study, we are hesitant to recommend the use of facial attractiveness to encourage increased FV consumption. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical trial Registration Number NCT01591057 ( www.clinicaltrials.gov ). Registered: 27th April, 2012

Relationships between traditional and fundamental dough-testing methods

Two fundamental test systems were used to evaluate the visco-elastic properties of doughs from wheat samples of three varieties grown at four distinct sites. For comparison, tests were also performed with traditional equipment, namely the Mixograph, an extension tester and a Farinograph-type small-scale recording mixer. Uniaxial dough elongation (with an Instron) produced results similar to the conventional extension tester, except that results were provided in fundamental units (Pascals), the critical value recorded being the elongational stress at maximum strain. Stress relaxation measurements were performed following a small initial shear strain. With this method, it was possible to distinguish between the viscosity and the elastic components of dough visco-elasticity. In all the tests the extra dough-strength properties were evident for the variety (Guardian) that had the 5 + 10 glutenin subunits, in contrast to the other two with the 2 + 12 combination of subunits

FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

Solar coronal jets:observations, theory, and modeling

Coronal jets represent important manifestations of ubiquitous solar transients, which may be the source of significant mass and energy input to the upper solar atmosphere and the solar wind. While the energy involved in a jet-like event is smaller than that of “nominal” solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), jets share many common properties with these phenomena, in particular, the explosive magnetically driven dynamics. Studies of jets could, therefore, provide critical insight for understanding the larger, more complex drivers of the solar activity. On the other side of the size-spectrum, the study of jets could also supply important clues on the physics of transients close or at the limit of the current spatial resolution such as spicules. Furthermore, jet phenomena may hint to basic process for heating the corona and accelerating the solar wind; consequently their study gives us the opportunity to attack a broad range of solar-heliospheric problems

High-precision determination of transition amplitudes of principal transitions in Cs from van der Waals coefficient C_6

A method for determination of atomic dipole matrix elements of principal transitions from the value of dispersion coefficient C_6 of molecular potentials correlating to two ground-state atoms is proposed. The method is illustrated on atomic Cs using C_6 deduced from high-resolution Feshbach spectroscopy. The following reduced matrix elements are determined < 6S_{1/2} || D || 6P_{1/2} > =4.5028(60) |e| a0 and =6.3373(84) |e| a0 (a0= 0.529177 \times 10^{-8} cm.) These matrix elements are consistent with the results of the most accurate direct lifetime measurements and have a similar uncertainty. It is argued that the uncertainty can be considerably reduced as the coefficient C_6 is constrained further.Comment: 4 pages; 3 fig

The Kuiper Belt and Other Debris Disks

We discuss the current knowledge of the Solar system, focusing on bodies in the outer regions, on the information they provide concerning Solar system formation, and on the possible relationships that may exist between our system and the debris disks of other stars. Beyond the domains of the Terrestrial and giant planets, the comets in the Kuiper belt and the Oort cloud preserve some of our most pristine materials. The Kuiper belt, in particular, is a collisional dust source and a scientific bridge to the dusty "debris disks" observed around many nearby main-sequence stars. Study of the Solar system provides a level of detail that we cannot discern in the distant disks while observations of the disks may help to set the Solar system in proper context.Comment: 50 pages, 25 Figures. To appear in conference proceedings book "Astrophysics in the Next Decade