Estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade

Many historical accounts have asserted that containerization triggered complementary technological and organizational changes that revolutionized global freight transport. We are the first to suggest an identification strategy for estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade. Our empirical strategy exploits time and cross-sectional variation in countries’ first adoption of container facilities and combines it with product-level variation in containerizability and container usage. Applying our container variables on a large panel of product level trade flows for the period 1962-1990, our estimates suggest economically large concurrent and cumulative effects of containerization and lend support for the view of containerization being a driver of 20th century economic globalization

Introduction: Land rights, restitution, politics, and war in Colombia

This paper introduces contributions to a symposium that report some of the findings and arguments to emerge from a collaborative research project involving five Colombian universities forming the Observatorio de Restitución y Regulación de Derechos de Propiedad Agraria (Observatory of Restitution and Regulation of Agrarian Property Rights). In a number of ways, the research presented in the symposium advances understanding of the political economy of rural Colombia, and of war in Colombia, and the papers, drawing on the original evidence collected by Observatorio researchers, develop arguments that have a wider relevance too for agrarian political economy and the understanding of violent conflict. In particular, the papers highlight the direct participation of elites in violent conflict; the varieties and nuances of wartime primitive accumulation; the complexities of the state's role in wartime agrarian political economy; the gender dimensions of agrarian conflict; the interaction of war and law; and the significance for service provision of farm size. As Colombia—hopefully—passes from long war to peace, these arguments and this evidence may be valuable in debates about what kind of peace can develop

Multi-donor trust funds and fragile states: assessing the aid effectiveness of the Zimbabwe multi-donor trust fund

It is widely acknowledged that multi-donor trust funds (MDTFs) contribute to aid effectiveness. This paper challenges this assertion through assessing the aid effectiveness of the Zimbabwe Multi-Donor Trust Fund. The paper makes four key arguments. First, political relations between recipient and donor countries are vital in the functioning of MDTFs. Second, the design of MDTFs affects the delivery and functioning of the trust fund. Third, whilst the legitimacy of national governments in fragile states is often contested, targeting legitimate and credible institutions can offer tangible and life changing results. Fourth, MDTFs focusing on the recovery of key sectors such as water, sanitation and energy have direct impacts to economic recovery and people’s lives

Evaluation of interventions on road traffic injuries in Peru: a qualitative approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Evaluation of interventions on road traffic injuries (RTI) going beyond the assessment of impact to include factors underlying success or failure is an important complement to standard impact evaluations. We report here how we used a qualitative approach to assess current interventions implemented to reduce RTIs in Peru.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed in-depth interviews with policymakers and technical officers involved in the implementation of RTI interventions to get their insight on design, implementation and evaluation aspects. We then conducted a workshop with key stakeholders to analyze the results of in-depth interviews, and to further discuss and identify key programmatic considerations when designing and implementing RTI interventions. We finally performed brainstorming sessions to assess potential system-wide effects of a selected intervention (Zero Tolerance), and to identify adaptation and redesign needs for this intervention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Key programmatic components were consistently identified that should be considered when designing and implementing RTI interventions. They include effective and sustained political commitment and planning; sufficient and sustained budget allocation; training, supervision, monitoring and evaluation of implemented policies; multisectoral participation; and strong governance and accountability. Brainstorming sessions revealed major negative effects of the selected intervention on various system building blocks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our approach revealed substantial caveats in current RTI interventions in Peru, and fundamental negative effects on several components of the sectors and systems involved. It also highlighted programmatic issues that should be applied to guarantee an effective implementation and evaluation of these policies. The findings from this study were discussed with key stakeholders for consideration in further designing and planning RTI control interventions in Peru.</p

Assessing the impact of microfinance programming on children: an evaluation from post-tsunami Aceh

This paper presents an evaluation of the long‐term impact of microfinance programmes on Acehnese children during the post‐tsunami recovery. The study, conducted from June to August 2010, examined the impact of microfinance programming six years after the tsunami. The sample consisted of 185 microfinance participants, with a comparison group of 192 individuals who did not participate in microfinance programmes. All respondents were parents, interviewed through a structured survey. The study used four child protection indicators—diet, health, childcare and education—in contrast to traditional repayment rate indicators. The primary results were insignificant with respect to all four child protection indicators, suggesting that, with respect to these indicators, there was no long‐term difference between the impact of microfinance on beneficiaries' children and non‐beneficiaries' children. These findings signify a need for microfinance actors to move beyond traditional indicators of economic success to evaluate the social changes microfinance programmes are presumed to effect

Debt Relief Effectiveness and Institution Building

The history of debt relief is now particularly long, the associated costs are soaring and the outcomes are at least uncertain. This paper reviews and provides new evidence on the effects of recent debt relief programs on different macroeconomic indicators in developing countries, focusing on the Highly Indebted Poor Countries. Besides, the relationship between debt relief and institutional change is investigated to assess whether donors are moving towards and ex-post governance conditionality. Results show that debt relief is only weakly associated with subsequent improvements in economic performance but it is correlated with increasing domestic debt in HIPCs, undermining the positive achievements in reducing external debt service. Finally, there is evidence that donors are moving towards a more sensible allocation of debt forgiveness, rewarding countries with better policies and institutions

Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s

The dynamic process of integration of national economies has a long history, with two distinct waves: one, from the middle of the 19th century until its interruption with outbreak of the First World War in 1913 till the end of the Second World War in 1945. The second wave is ongoing dating from 1950. Two sub-processes of integration are usually distinguished. The first, called real integration related to flows of goods, services and factors across borders; the second called financial integration related to financial flows of claims on the nominal returns on financial assets. Financial integration has had a checkered history. Private financial flows, particularly debt flows, were evident in the first wave. During the second wave, debt flows, both intergovernmental and private banking lending were dominant during 1950–1980. Only after 1980, private non-debt flows particularly equity flows accelerated. This paper's primary focus is on the real and financial integration and their impact on trade, growth and poverty in the world's two dominant developing countries in emerging markets, namely the People's Republic of China (PRC) and India. The paper also discusses the reforms of institutional (domestic and multinational) foundations of real and financial integration, particularly the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Group of 20. The impacts of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on the PRC and India are noted and the need for domestic financial sector reforms in both for them to cope with and respond to future financial crises is pointed out. Attention is drawn to the inadequacy of available analytical tools, in particular the absence of an appropriately integrated model of real and financial sectors to enable a meaningful assessment of the impact of financial shocks on the real sector

Organizing for impact: International organizations and global pension policy

The internal dynamics and politics of international organizations influence how international policy agendas are set and how effectively they are pursued. International organizations are open systems which respond and adapt to the external policy environment in order to remain relevant to global policymaking. Through an analysis of the internal politics of the World Bank and International Labour Organization, the leading global agenda-setters for pension reform, this article shows that internal political battles and restructuring have a decisive influence on global pensions policy. Appointment of key personnel and internal reorganization can help make certain policy ideas prominent over others. Scholars should pay greater attention to processes of change within international organizations in order to better understand the international agenda setting process