A Project Based Approach to Statistics and Data Science

In an increasingly data-driven world, facility with statistics is more important than ever for our students. At institutions without a statistician, it often falls to the mathematics faculty to teach statistics courses. This paper presents a model that a mathematician asked to teach statistics can follow. This model entails connecting with faculty from numerous departments on campus to develop a list of topics, building a repository of real-world datasets from these faculty, and creating projects where students interface with these datasets to write lab reports aimed at consumers of statistics in other disciplines. The end result is students who are well prepared for interdisciplinary research, who are accustomed to coping with the idiosyncrasies of real data, and who have sharpened their technical writing and speaking skills

Student teamwork: developing virtual support for team projects

In the 21st century team working increasingly requires online cooperative skills as well as more traditional skills associated with face to face team working. Virtual team working differs from face to face team working in a number of respects, such as interpreting the alternatives to visual cues, adapting to synchronous communication, developing trust and cohesion and cultural interpretations. However, co-located student teams working within higher education can only simulate team working as it might be experienced in organisations today. For example, students can learn from their mistakes in a non-threatening environment, colleagues tend to be established friends and assessing teamwork encourages behaviour such as “free-riding”. Using a prototyping approach, which involves students and tutors, a system has been designed to support learners engaged in team working. This system helps students to achieve to their full potential and appreciate issues surrounding virtual teamwork. The Guardian Agent system enables teams to allocate project tasks and agree ground rules for the team according to individuals’ preferences. Results from four cycles of its use are presented, together with modifications arising from iterations of testing. The results show that students find the system useful in preparing for team working, and have encouraged further development of the system

Controlling for transactions bias in regional house price indices

Transactions bias arises when properties that trade are not a random sample of the total housing stock. Price indices are susceptible because they are typically based on transactions data. Existing approaches to this problem rely on Heckman-type correction methods, where a probit regression is used to capture the differences between properties that sell and those that do not sell in a given period. However, this approach can only be applied where there is reliable data on the whole housing stock. In many countries—the UK included—no such data exist and there is little prospect of correcting for transactions bias in any of the regularly updated mainstream house price indices. Thispaper suggests a possible alternative approach, using information at postcode sector level and Fractional Probit Regression to correct for transactions bias in hedonic price indices based on one and a half million house sales from 1996 to 2004, distributed across 1200 postcode sectors in the South East of England

Global and regional effects of the photochemistry of CH_3O_2NO_2: evidence from ARCTAS

Using measurements from the NASA Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) experiment, we show that methyl peroxy nitrate (CH_3O_2NO_2) is present in concentrations of ~5–15 pptv in the springtime arctic upper troposphere. We investigate the regional and global effects of CH_3O_2NO_2 by including its chemistry in the GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model. We find that at temperatures below 240 K inclusion of CH_3O_2NO_2 chemistry results in decreases of up to ~20 % in NO_x, ~20 % in N_2O_5, ~5 % in HNO3, ~2 % in ozone, and increases in methyl hydrogen peroxide of up to ~14 %. Larger changes are observed in biomass burning plumes lofted to high altitude. Additionally, by sequestering NO_x at low temperatures, CH_3O_2NO_2 decreases the cycling of HO_2 to OH, resulting in a larger upper tropospheric HO_2 to OH ratio. These results may impact some estimates of lightning NO_x sources as well as help explain differences between models and measurements of upper tropospheric composition

Refugees, not economic migrants:Why do asylum seekers register in Hungary?

The article analyses why asylum‐seekers choose Hungary as an entry point to the European Union. Among the Central and Eastern European countries Hungary has been by far the most popular choice for asylum‐seekers between 2002 and 2016, yet surprisingly, it has been neglected by the literature. Using a panel dataset and fixed effects regressions, the article finds that beyond being ‘conveniently’ located on the Balkans migration route, variables related to Hungary's immigration policy are the most significant determinants of asylum‐seeker choices. The article finds no evidence to support recent claims by the Hungarian government that arrivals to the country are actually economic migrants and not asylum‐seekers; quite the contrary, the results indicate that on average asylum‐seekers entering Hungary are fleeing violent conflict in their countries of origin

The production and persistence of ΣRONO2 in the Mexico City plume

Alkyl and multifunctional nitrates (RONO2, ΣANs) have been observed to be a significant fraction of NOy in a number of different chemical regimes. Their formation is an important free radical chain termination step ending production of ozone and possibly affecting formation of secondary organic aerosol. ΣANs also represent a potentially large, unmeasured contribution to OH reactivity and are a major pathway for the removal of nitrogen oxides from the atmosphere. Numerous studies have investigated the role of nitrate formation from biogenic compounds and in the remote atmosphere. Less attention has been paid to the role ΣANs may play in the complex mixtures of hydrocarbons typical of urban settings. Measurements of total alkyl and multifunctional nitrates, NO2, total peroxy nitrates (ΣPNs), HNO3 and a representative suite of hydrocarbons were obtained from the NASA DC-8 aircraft during spring of 2006 in and around Mexico City and the Gulf of Mexico. ΣANs were observed to be 10–20% of NOy in the Mexico City plume and to increase in importance with increased photochemical age. We describe three conclusions: (1) Correlations of ΣANs with odd-oxygen (Ox) indicate a stronger role for ΣANs in the photochemistry of Mexico City than is expected based on currently accepted photochemical mechanisms, (2) ΣAN formation suppresses peak ozone production rates by as much as 40% in the near-field of Mexico City and (3) ΣANs play a significant role in the export of NOy from Mexico City to the Gulf Region

The application of ultrasonic NDT techniques in tribology

The use of ultrasonic reflection is emerging as a technique for studying tribological contacts. Ultrasonic waves can be transmitted non-destructively through machine components and their behaviour at an interface describes the characteristics of that contact. This paper is a review of the current state of understanding of the mechanisms of ultrasonic reflection at interfaces, and how this has been used to investigate the processes of dry rough surface contact and lubricated contact. The review extends to cover how ultrasound has been used to study the tribological function of certain engineering machine elements

How weather-proof is the construction sector? : empirical evidence from Germany

With the purpose to reduce winter unemployment and to promote all-season employment in the constructions sector, Germany maintains an extensive bad weather allowance system. Since the mid 1990s, these regulations have been subject to several reforms that resemble the range of approaches for employment promotion which can be found in other European countries. We analyse the effect of these reforms on individual unemployment risks using large individual administrative data merged with information about local weather conditions and the business cycle. We find a weaker direct link between seasonal layoffs and actual weather than broadly assumed, since most of the layoffs take place at fixed dates. The reforms under consideration have economically plausible effects; Regulations that limit an employer's financial burden reduce transitions to unemployment and render it less weather-dependent

Supply driven mortgage choice

Variable mortgage contracts dominate the UK mortgage market (Miles, 2004). The dominance of the variable rate mortgage contracts has important consequences for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions and systemic risks (Khandani et al., 2012; Fuster and Vickery, 2013). This raises an obvious concern that a mortgage market such as that in the UK, where the major proportion of mortgage debt is either at a variable or fixed for less than two years rate (Badarinza, et al., 2013; CML, 2012), is vulnerable to alterations in the interest rate regime. Theoretically, mortgage choice is determined by demand and supply factors. So far, most of the existing literature has focused on the demand side perspective, and what is limited is consideration of supply side factors in empirical investigation on mortgage choice decisions. This paper uniquely explores whether supply side factors may partially explain observed/ex-post mortgage type decisions. Empirical results detect that lenders’ profit motives and mortgage funding/pricing issues may have assisted in preferences toward variable rate contracts. Securitisation is found to positively impact upon gross mortgage lending volumes while negatively impacting upon the share of variable lending flows. This shows that an increase in securitisation not only improves liquidity in the supply of mortgage funds, but also has the potential to shift mortgage choices toward fixed mortgage debt. The policy implications may involve a number of measures, including reconsideration of the capital requirements for the fixed, as opposed to the variable rate mortgage debt, growing securitisation and optimisation of the mortgage pricing policies

Estimating the Binary Endogenous Effect of Insurance on Doctor Visits by Copula-Based Regression Additive Models

This paper seeks to estimate the causal effect of having health insurance on health care utilization, while accounting for potential endogeneity bias. The topic has impor- tant policy implications, because health insurance reforms implemented in U.S. in recent decades have focused on extending coverage to the previously uninsured. Consequently, understanding the effects of those reforms requires an accurate estimate of the causal effect of insurance on utilization. However, obtaining such an estimate is complicated by the discreteness inherent in common measures of health care usage. This paper presents a flexible estimation approach, based on copula functions, that consistently estimates the coefficient of a binary endogenous regressor in count data settings. The relevant numeri- cal computations can be easily carried out using the freely available GJRM R package. The empirical results find significant evidence of favorable selection into insurance. Ignoring such selection, insurance appears to increase doctor visit usage by 62%, but adjusting for it, the effect increases to 134%