The Use of a Numerical Weather Prediction Model to Simulate Near-Field Volcanic Plumes

In this paper, a state-of the art numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is used to simulate the near-field plume of a Plinian-type volcanic eruption. The NWP model is run at very high resolution (of the order of 100 m) and includes a representation of physical processes, including turbulence and buoyancy, that are essential components of eruption column dynamics. Results are shown that illustrate buoyant gas plume dynamics in an atmosphere at rest and in an atmosphere with background wind, and we show that these results agree well with those from theoretical models in the quiescent atmosphere. For wind-blown plumes, we show that features observed in experimental and natural settings are reproduced in our model. However, when comparing with predictions from an integral model using existing entrainment closures there are marked differences. We speculate that these are signatures of a difference in turbulent mixing for uniform and shear flow profiles in a stratified atmosphere. A more complex implementation is given to show that the model may also be used to examine the dispersion of heavy volcanic gases such as sulphur dioxide. Starting from the standard version of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, we show that minimal modifications are needed in order to model volcanic plumes. This suggests that the modified NWP model can be used in the forecasting of plume evolution during future volcanic events, in addition to providing a virtual laboratory for the testing of hypotheses regarding plume behaviour

An automated segmentation approach to calibrating infantile nystagmus waveforms

Infantile nystagmus (IN) describes a regular, repetitive movement of the eyes. A characteristic feature of each cycle of the IN eye movement waveform is a period in which the eyes are moving at minimal velocity. This so-called “foveation” period has long been considered the basis for the best vision in individuals with IN. In recent years, the technology for measuring eye movements has improved considerably, but there remains the challenge of calibrating the direction of gaze in tracking systems when the eyes are continuously moving. Identifying portions of the nystagmus waveform suitable for calibration typically involves time-consuming manual selection of the foveation periods from the eye trace. Without an accurate calibration, the exact parameters of the waveform cannot be determined. In this study, we present an automated method for segmenting IN waveforms with the purpose of determining the foveation positions to be used for calibration of an eye tracker. On average, the “point of regard” was found to be within 0.21° of that determined by hand-marking by an expert observer. This method enables rapid clinical quantification of waveforms and the possibility of gaze-contingent research paradigms being performed with this patient group

Elevated hemostasis markers after pneumonia increases one-year risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths

Background: Acceleration of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, may increase long-term mortality after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but underlying mechanisms are unknown. Persistence of the prothrombotic state that occurs during an acute infection may increase risk of subsequent atherothrombosis in patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease and increase subsequent risk of death. We hypothesized that circulating hemostasis markers activated during CAP persist at hospital discharge, when patients appear to have recovered clinically, and are associated with higher mortality, particularly due to cardiovascular causes. Methods: In a cohort of survivors of CAP hospitalization from 28 US sites, we measured D-Dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complexes [TAT], Factor IX, antithrombin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 at hospital discharge, and determined 1-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results: Of 893 subjects, most did not have severe pneumonia (70.6% never developed severe sepsis) and only 13.4% required intensive care unit admission. At discharge, 88.4% of subjects had normal vital signs and appeared to have clinically recovered. D-dimer and TAT levels were elevated at discharge in 78.8% and 30.1% of all subjects, and in 51.3% and 25.3% of those without severe sepsis. Higher D-dimer and TAT levels were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (range of hazard ratios were 1.66-1.17, p = 0.0001 and 1.46-1.04, p = 0.001 after adjusting for demographics and comorbid illnesses) and cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.009 and 0.003 in competing risk analyses). Conclusions: Elevations of TAT and D-dimer levels are common at hospital discharge in patients who appeared to have recovered clinically from pneumonia and are associated with higher risk of subsequent deaths, particularly due to cardiovascular disease. © 2011 Yende et al

Protocol for a prospective collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials of vasoactive drugs in acute stroke: the Blood pressure in Acute Stroke Collaboration, stage-3 (BASC-3)

Rationale Despite several large clinical trials assessing blood pressure lowering in acute stroke, equipoise remains, particularly for ischaemic stroke. The ‘Blood pressure in Acute Stroke Collaboration’ (BASC) commenced in the mid 1990s focusing on systematic reviews and meta-analysis of blood pressure lowering in acute stroke. From the start, BASC planned to assess safety and efficacy of blood pressure lowering in acute stroke using individual patient data. Aims To determine the optimal management of blood pressure in patients with acute stroke, encompassing both intracerebral haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke. Secondary aims are to assess which clinical and therapeutic factors may alter the optimal management of high blood pressure in patients with acute stroke and to assess the effect of vasoactive treatments on haemodynamic variables. Methods and design Individual patient data from randomised controlled trials of blood pressure management in participants with ischaemic stroke and/or intracerebral haemorrhage enrolled during the ultra-acute (pre-hospital), hyper-acute (<6 hours), acute (<48 hours) and sub-acute (<168 hours) phases of stroke. Study outcomes The primary effect variable will be functional outcome defined by the ordinal distribution of the modified Rankin Scale; analyses will also be carried out in prespecified subgroups to assess the modifying effects of stroke-related and pre-stroke patient characteristics. Key secondary variables will include clinical, haemodynamic and neuroradiological variables; safety variables will comprise death and serious adverse events. Discussion Study questions will be addressed in stages, according to the protocol, before integrating these into a final overreaching analysis. We invite eligible trials to join the collaboration

Quantization of Midisuperspace Models

We give a comprehensive review of the quantization of midisuperspace models. Though the main focus of the paper is on quantum aspects, we also provide an introduction to several classical points related to the definition of these models. We cover some important issues, in particular, the use of the principle of symmetric criticality as a very useful tool to obtain the required Hamiltonian formulations. Two main types of reductions are discussed: those involving metrics with two Killing vector fields and spherically symmetric models. We also review the more general models obtained by coupling matter fields to these systems. Throughout the paper we give separate discussions for standard quantizations using geometrodynamical variables and those relying on loop quantum gravity inspired methods.Comment: To appear in Living Review in Relativit

Visual impairment is associated with physical and mental comorbidities in older adults:a cross-sectional study

Background&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Visual impairment is common in older people and the presence of additional health conditions can compromise health and rehabilitation outcomes. A small number of studies have suggested that comorbities are common in visual impairment; however, those studies have relied on self-report and have assessed a relatively limited number of comorbid conditions.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 291,169 registered patients (65-years-old and over) within 314 primary care practices in Scotland, UK. Visual impairment was identified using Read Code ever recorded for blindness and/or low vision (within electronic medical records). Prevalence, odds ratios (from prevalence rates standardised by stratifying individuals by age groups (65 to 69 years; 70 to 74; 75 to 79; 80 to 84; and 85 and over), gender and deprivation quintiles) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of 37 individual chronic physical/mental health conditions and total number of conditions were calculated and compared for those with visual impairment to those without.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Twenty seven of the 29 physical health conditions and all eight mental health conditions were significantly more likely to be recorded for individuals with visual impairment compared to individuals without visual impairment, after standardising for age, gender and social deprivation. Individuals with visual impairment were also significantly more likely to have more comorbidities (for example, five or more conditions (odds ratio (OR) 2.05 95% CI 1.94 to 2.18)).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Patients aged 65 years and older with visual impairment have a broad range of physical and mental health comorbidities compared to those of the same age without visual impairment, and are more likely to have multiple comorbidities. This has important implications for clinical practice and for the future design of integrated services to meet the complex needs of patients with visual impairment, for example, embedding depression and hearing screening within eye care services

Reconstructing grassland fire history using sedimentary charcoal: Considering count, size and shape

Citation: Leys, B. A., Commerford, J. L., & McLauchlan, K. K. (2017). Reconstructing grassland fire history using sedimentary charcoal: Considering count, size and shape. Plos One, 12(4), 15. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0176445Fire is a key Earth system process, with 80% of annual fire activity taking place in grassland areas. However, past fire regimes in grassland systems have been difficult to quantify due to challenges in interpreting the charcoal signal in depositional environments. To improve reconstructions of grassland fire regimes, it is essential to assess two key traits: (1) charcoal count, and (2) charcoal shape. In this study, we quantified the number of charcoal pieces in 51 sediment samples of ponds in the Great Plains and tested its relevance as a proxy for the fire regime by examining 13 potential factors influencing charcoal count, including various fire regime components (e.g. the fire frequency, the area burned, and the fire season), vegetation cover and pollen assemblages, and climate variables. We also quantified the width to length (W: L) ratio of charcoal particles, to assess its utility as a proxy of fuel types in grassland environments by direct comparison with vegetation cover and pollen assemblages. Our first conclusion is that charcoal particles produced by grassland fires are smaller than those produced by forest fires. Thus, a mesh size of 120 mu m as used in forested environments is too large for grassland ecosystems. We recommend counting all charcoal particles over 60 mu m in grasslands and mixed grass-forest environments to increase the number of samples with useful data. Second, a W: L ratio of 0.5 or smaller appears to be an indicator for fuel types, when vegetation surrounding the site is before composed of at least 40% grassland vegetation. Third, the area burned within 1060m of the depositional environments explained both the count and the area of charcoal particles. Therefore, changes in charcoal count or charcoal area through time indicate a change in area burned. The fire regimes of grassland systems, including both human and climatic influences on fire behavior, can be characterized by long-term charcoal records

Slow slip source characterized by lithological and geometric heterogeneity

Slow slip events (SSEs) accommodate a significant proportion of tectonic plate motion at subduction zones, yet little is known about the faults that actually host them. The shallow depth (<2 km) of well-documented SSEs at the Hikurangi subduction zone offshore New Zealand offers a unique opportunity to link geophysical imaging of the subduction zone with direct access to incoming material that represents the megathrust fault rocks hosting slow slip. Two recent International Ocean Discovery Program Expeditions sampled this incoming material before it is entrained immediately down-dip along the shallow plate interface. Drilling results, tied to regional seismic reflection images, reveal heterogeneous lithologies with highly variable physical properties entering the SSE source region. These observations suggest that SSEs and associated slow earthquake phenomena are promoted by lithological, mechanical, and frictional heterogeneity within the fault zone, enhanced by geometric complexity associated with subduction of rough crust