Haiyan Song is a Chair Professor of Tourism in the School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong. Stephen Witt is a Visiting Professor in the School of Hotel and Tourism Management

The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by UK residents for 5 key Western European destinations. Based on the discussion of how the series considered related to most, the empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time series models in forecasting the demand for tourism. By measuring performance in terms of the accuracy of the forecasts of growth (rates of change) and showing that TVP-ECM performs very well for this as well as conventional assessment of the level of demand in this study, it is suggested that forecasters of tourism demand levels and growth rates can feel comfortable using TVP-ECM given that it is expected to perform well

Control of superconductivity with a single ferromagnetic layer in niobium/erbium bilayers

Superconducting spintronics in hybrid superconductor{ferromagnet (S{F) heterostructures provides an exciting potential new class of device. The prototypical super-spintronic device is the superconducting spin-valve, where the critical temperature, Tc, of the S-layer can be controlledby the relative orientation of two (or more) F-layers. Here, we show that such control is also possible in a simple S/F bilayer. Using eld history to set the remanent magnetic state of a thin Er layer, we demonstrate for a Nb/Er bilayer a high level of control of both Tc and the shape of the resistive transition, R(T), to zero resistance. We are able to model the origin of the remanent magnetization, treating it as an increase in the e ective exchange eld of the ferromagnet and link this, using conventional S{F theory, to the suppression of Tc. We observe stepped features in the R(T) which we argue is due to a fundamental interaction of superconductivity with inhomogeneous ferromagnetism, a phenomena currently lacking theoretical description

Cognitive dysfunction in naturally occurring canine idiopathic epilepsy

Globally, epilepsy is a common serious brain disorder. In addition to seizure activity, epilepsy is associated with cognitive impairments including static cognitive impairments present at onset, progressive seizure-induced impairments and co-morbid dementia. Epilepsy occurs naturally in domestic dogs but its impact on canine cognition has yet to be studied, despite canine cognitive dysfunction (CCD) recognised as a spontaneous model of dementia. Here we use data from a psychometrically validated tool, the canine cognitive dysfunction rating (CCDR) scale, to compare cognitive dysfunction in dogs diagnosed with idiopathic epilepsy (IE) with controls while accounting for age. An online cross-sectional study resulted in a sample of 4051 dogs, of which n = 286 had been diagnosed with IE. Four factors were significantly associated with a diagnosis of CCD (above the diagnostic cut-off of CCDR ≥50): (i) epilepsy diagnosis: dogs with epilepsy were at higher risk; (ii) age: older dogs were at higher risk; (iii) weight: lighter dogs (kg) were at higher risk; (iv) training history: dogs with more exposure to training activities were at lower risk. Impairments in memory were most common in dogs with IE, but progression of impairments was not observed compared to controls. A significant interaction between epilepsy and age was identified, with IE dogs exhibiting a higher risk of CCD at a young age, while control dogs followed the expected pattern of low-risk throughout middle age, with risk increasing exponentially in geriatric years. Within the IE sub-population, dogs with a history of cluster seizures and high seizure frequency had higher CCDR scores. The age of onset, nature and progression of cognitive impairment in the current IE dogs appear divergent from those classically seen in CCD. Longitudinal monitoring of cognitive function from seizure onset is required to further characterise these impairments

Here today, here tomorrow: Beached timber in Gabon, a persistent threat to nesting sea turtles

notes:types: JOURThe African country of Gabon has seen decadal increases in commercial logging. An unforeseen consequence of this has been that many coastal areas, including several National Parks and Reserves, have suffered severe pollution from beached timber. This has the potential to adversely affect nesting sea turtles, particularly the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) for which Gabon constitutes the world’s largest rookery. In this study, we analyse aerial survey data (2003, 2007 and 2011) to determine the temporal persistence and spatial extent of beached timber, and by integrating spatial data on nesting, ascertain regions where beached timber poses the greatest threat to nesting leatherback turtles. There was no marked difference in the number of beached logs recorded across the study area during the period, with 15,160, 13,528 and 17,262 logs recorded in the three years, respectively. There was, however, a significant difference in abundance of beached logs among geographical areas. Analysis highlighted two coastal areas where nesting leatherback turtles were likely to be at greatest risk from beached timber. At one such site, Kingere, within Pongara National Park, where both logs and turtle densities are high, monitoring in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 suggested that between 1.6% and 4.4% of leatherback turtles could be entrapped at this site. Given the dynamic nature of Gabon’s coastal environment, and the potential limitations of aerial surveys, densities of beached timber could be greater than this analysis reveals. We also propose, that despite recent export restrictions of whole logs, their environmental persistence potentially represents a long-term problem

Multi-Messenger Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Application to 3C66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set

When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form binaries and, during the process of merger, emit low-frequency gravitational radiation in the process. In this paper we consider the galaxy 3C66B, which was used as the target of the first multi-messenger search for gravitational waves. Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric data of the source of the source, it has been theorized to contain a supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would place the gravitational wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since the first pulsar timing array study of 3C66B, revised models of the source have been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C66B to less than $(1.65\pm0.02) \times 10^9~{M_\odot}$ using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits, and a factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data to `blind' pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain meaningful astrophysical inferences.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by Ap

Acupuncture for pain and osteoarthritis of the knee: a pilot study for an open parallel-arm randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is some evidence that acupuncture for pain and osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee is more than a placebo, and short term clinical benefits have been observed when acupuncture is compared to usual care. However there is insufficient evidence on whether clinical benefits of acupuncture are sustained over the longer term. In this study our key objectives are to inform the design parameters for a fully powered pragmatic randomised controlled trial. These objectives include establishing potential recruitment rates, appropriate validated outcome measures, attendance levels for acupuncture treatment, loss to follow up and the sample size for a full scale trial.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Potential participants aged over 50 with pain and osteoarthritis of the knee were identified from a GP database. Eligible patients were randomised to either 'acupuncture plus usual care' and 'usual care' alone, with allocation appropriately concealed. Acupuncture consisted of up to 10 sessions usually weekly. Outcome measures included Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) index with the sample size for a full scale trial determined from the variance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From the GP database of 15,927 patients, 335 potential trial participants were identified and invited to participate. After screening responses, 78 (23%) were identified as eligible and 30 patients who responded most promptly were randomised to 'acupuncture plus usual care' (15 patients) and 'usual care' alone (15 patients). Attendance for acupuncture appointments was high at 90% of the maximum. Although the trial was not powered to detect significant changes in outcome, the WOMAC pain index showed a statistically significant reduction at 3 months in the acupuncture group compared to usual care. This was not sustained at 12 months. The sample size for a fully powered two-arm trial was estimated to be 350.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This pilot study provided the evidence that a fully powered study to explore the longer term impact of acupuncture would be worthwhile, and relevant design features for such a trial were determined.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>ISRCTN25134802.</p