Predictions of local ground geomagnetic field fluctuations during the 7-10 November 2004 events studied with solar wind driven models

The 7-10 November 2004 period contains two events for which the local ground magnetic field was severely disturbed and simultaneously, the solar wind displayed several shocks and negative <i>B<sub>z</sub></i> periods. Using empirical models the 10-min RMS and at Brorfelde (BFE, 11.67° E, 55.63° N), Denmark, are predicted. The models are recurrent neural networks with 10-min solar wind plasma and magnetic field data as inputs. The predictions show a good agreement during 7 November, up until around noon on 8 November, after which the predictions become significantly poorer. The correlations between observed and predicted log RMS is 0.77 during 7-8 November but drops to 0.38 during 9-10 November. For RMS the correlations for the two periods are 0.71 and 0.41, respectively. Studying the solar wind data for other L1-spacecraft (WIND and SOHO) it seems that the ACE data have a better agreement to the near-Earth solar wind during the first two days as compared to the last two days. Thus, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the location of the spacecraft and the solar wind flow direction. Another finding, for the events studied here, is that the and models showed a very different dependence on <i>B<sub>z</sub></i>. The model is almost independent of the solar wind magnetic field <i>B<sub>z</sub></i>, except at times when <i>B<sub>z</sub></i> is exceptionally large or when the overall activity is low. On the contrary, the model shows a strong dependence on <i>B<sub>z</sub></i> at all times

The European risk from geomagnetically induced currents (EURISGIC)

EURISGIC (www.eurisgic.eu) was the first continental-scale study of the geomagnetically induced current (GIC) hazard to Europe’s power transmission system. EURISGIC had a number of strands to it, including modelling GIC in the European system and understanding the possible extremes that the system could face. These project strands were represented by nine distinct work packages: • The construction of the first ever European power transmission grid model and an update of the existing UK model • The development of detailed conductivity models for Europe and, separately, the UK • The building of geomagnetic, GIC and related science databases • The production of a GIC risk map for Europe • The investigation of worst case scenarios and extremes in the grid models • The development of the NASA ‘Solar Shield’ magnetospheric and solar wind model for use in the European context • The enhancement of a prototype GIC and geomagnetic forecast system for Europe • The making of geomagnetic, geoelectric and GIC measurements to enhance our knowledge and validate models • The education of the public and other stakeholders through scientific papers and other materials. To assess and guide progress on the project a team of industry advisors was assembled. These advisors included senior power engineers from major electrical transmission system operators from across Europe, including National Grid in the UK. In this poster we demonstrate some of the major findings of the project. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 260330

Comment on "CAWSES November 7-8, 2004, superstorm: Complex solar and interplanetary features in the post-solar maximum phase" by B. T. Tsurutani, E. Echer, F. L. Guarnieri, and J. U. Kozyra

Recently Tsurutani et al., (2008) (Paper 1) analyzed the complex interplanetary structures during 7 to 8 November, 2004 to identify their properties as well as resultant geomagnetic effects and the solar origins. Besides mentioned paper by Gopalswamy et al., (2006) the solar and interplanetary sources of geomagnetic storm on 7-10 November, 2004 have also been discussed in details in series of other papers. Some conclusions of these works essentially differ from conclusions of the Paper 1 but have not been discussed by authors of Paper 1. In this comment we would like to discuss some of these distinctions.Comment: Submitted for publication in Geophysical Research Letter

Present day challenges in understanding the geomagnetic hazard to national power grids

Power grids and pipeline networks at all latitudes are known to be at risk from the natural hazard of geomagnetically induced currents. At a recent workshop in South Africa, UK and South African scientists and engineers discussed the current understanding of this hazard, as it affects major power systems in Europe and Africa. They also summarised, to better inform the public and industry, what can be said with some certainty about the hazard and what research is yet required to develop useful tools for geomagnetic hazard mitigation

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional event

Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

YesThis paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model's input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 "Improvement of operational models'' of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 "Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe'' and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action