Measuring the statistical validity of summary meta-analysis and meta-regression results for use in clinical practice

An important question for clinicians appraising a meta-analysis is: are the findings likely to be valid in their own practice-does the reported effect accurately represent the effect that would occur in their own clinical population? To this end we advance the concept of statistical validity-where the parameter being estimated equals the corresponding parameter for a new independent study. Using a simple ('leave-one-out') cross-validation technique, we demonstrate how we may test meta-analysis estimates for statistical validity using a new validation statistic, Vn, and derive its distribution. We compare this with the usual approach of investigating heterogeneity in meta-analyses and demonstrate the link between statistical validity and homogeneity. Using a simulation study, the properties of Vn and the Q statistic are compared for univariate random effects meta-analysis and a tailored meta-regression model, where information from the setting (included as model covariates) is used to calibrate the summary estimate to the setting of application. Their properties are found to be similar when there are 50 studies or more, but for fewer studies Vn has greater power but a higher type 1 error rate than Q. The power and type 1 error rate of Vn are also shown to depend on the within-study variance, between-study variance, study sample size, and the number of studies in the meta-analysis. Finally, we apply Vn to two published meta-analyses and conclude that it usefully augments standard methods when deciding upon the likely validity of summary meta-analysis estimates in clinical practice. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

MuRF1 activity is present in cardiac mitochondria and regulates reactive oxygen species production in vivo

Erratum: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10863-014-9597-1MuRF1 is a previously reported ubiquitin-ligase found in striated muscle that targets troponin I and myosin heavy chain for degradation. While MuRF1 has been reported to interact with mitochondrial substrates in yeast two-hybrid studies, no studies have identified MuRF1’s role in regulating mitochondrial function to date. In the present study, we measured cardiac mitochondrial function from isolated permeabilized muscle fibers in previously phenotyped MuRF1 transgenic and MuRF1−/− mouse models to determine the role of MuRF1 in intermediate energy metabolism and ROS production. We identified a significant decrease in reactive oxygen species production in cardiac muscle fibers from MuRF1 transgenic mice with increased α-MHC driven MuRF1 expression. Increased MuRF1 expression in ex vivo and in vitro experiments revealed no alterations in the respiratory chain complex I and II function. Working perfusion experiments on MuRF1 transgenic hearts demonstrated significant changes in glucose oxidation. This is an factual error as written; however, total oxygen consumption was decreased. This data provides evidence for MuRF1 as a novel regulator of cardiac ROS, offering another mechanism by which increased MuRF1 expression may be cardioprotective in ischemia reperfusion injury, in addition to its inhibition of apoptosis via proteasome-mediate degradation of c-Jun. The lack of mitochondrial function phenotype identified in MuRF1−/− hearts may be due to the overlapping interactions of MuRF1 and MuRF2 with energy regulating proteins found by yeast two-hybrid studies reported here, implying a duplicity in MuRF1 and MuRF2’s regulation of mitochondrial function.Funding support from Medical Research Council, United Kingdom; National Institutes of Health, United States; British Heart Foundation, United Kingdo

Factor structure and construct validity of the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for Carers (ASCOT-Carer)

Background: The ASCOT-Carer is a self-report instrument designed to measure social care-related quality of life (SCRQoL). This article presents the psychometric testing and validation of the ASCOT-Carer four response-level interview (INT4) in a sample of unpaid carers of adults who receive publicly-funded social care services in England. Methods: Unpaid carers were identified through a survey of users of publicly-funded social care services in England. 387 carers completed a face-to-face or telephone interview. Data on variables hypothesised to be related to SCRQoL (for example, characteristics of the carer, cared-for person and care situation) and measures of carer experience, strain, health-related quality of life and overall QoL were collected. Relationships between these variables and overall SCRQoL score were evaluated through correlation, ANOVA and regression analysis to test the construct validity of the scale. Internal reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and feasibility by the number of missing responses. Results: The construct validity was supported by statistically significant relationships between SCRQoL and scores on instruments of related constructs, as well as with characteristics of the carer and care recipient in univariate and multivariate analyses. A Cronbach’s alpha of 0.87 (7 items) indicates that the internal reliability of the instrument is satisfactory and a low number of missing responses (<1%) indicates a high level of acceptance. Conclusions: The results provide evidence to support the construct validity, factor structure, internal reliability and feasibility of the ASCOT-Carer INT4 as an instrument for measuring social care-related quality of life of unpaid carers who care for adults with a variety of long-term conditions, disability or problems related to old age

Stability in Ecosystem Functioning across a Climatic Threshold and Contrasting Forest Regimes

Classical ecological theory predicts that changes in the availability of essential resources such as nitrogen should lead to changes in plant community composition due to differences in species-specific nutrient requirements. What remains unknown, however, is the extent to which climate change will alter the relationship between plant communities and the nitrogen cycle. During intervals of climate change, do changes in nitrogen cycling lead to vegetation change or do changes in community composition alter the nitrogen dynamics? We used long-term ecological data to determine the role of nitrogen availability in changes of forest species composition under a rapidly changing climate during the early Holocene (16k to 8k cal. yrs. BP). A statistical computational analysis of ecological data spanning 8,000 years showed that secondary succession from a coniferous to deciduous forest occurred independently of changes in the nitrogen cycle. As oak replaced pine under a warming climate, nitrogen cycling rates increased. Interestingly, the mechanism by which the species interacted with nitrogen remained stable across this threshold change in climate and in the dominant tree species. This suggests that changes in tree population density over successional time scales are not driven by nitrogen availability. Thus, current models of forest succession that incorporate the effects of available nitrogen may be over-estimating tree population responses to changes in this resource, which may result in biased predictions of future forest dynamics under climate warming

The Impact of Global Warming and Anoxia on Marine Benthic Community Dynamics: an Example from the Toarcian (Early Jurassic)

The Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic) fossil record is an archive of natural data of benthic community response to global warming and marine long-term hypoxia and anoxia. In the early Toarcian mean temperatures increased by the same order of magnitude as that predicted for the near future; laminated, organic-rich, black shales were deposited in many shallow water epicontinental basins; and a biotic crisis occurred in the marine realm, with the extinction of approximately 5% of families and 26% of genera. High-resolution quantitative abundance data of benthic invertebrates were collected from the Cleveland Basin (North Yorkshire, UK), and analysed with multivariate statistical methods to detect how the fauna responded to environmental changes during the early Toarcian. Twelve biofacies were identified. Their changes through time closely resemble the pattern of faunal degradation and recovery observed in modern habitats affected by anoxia. All four successional stages of community structure recorded in modern studies are recognised in the fossil data (i.e. Stage III: climax; II: transitional; I: pioneer; 0: highly disturbed). Two main faunal turnover events occurred: (i) at the onset of anoxia, with the extinction of most benthic species and the survival of a few adapted to thrive in low-oxygen conditions (Stages I to 0) and (ii) in the recovery, when newly evolved species colonized the re-oxygenated soft sediments and the path of recovery did not retrace of pattern of ecological degradation (Stages I to II). The ordination of samples coupled with sedimentological and palaeotemperature proxy data indicate that the onset of anoxia and the extinction horizon coincide with both a rise in temperature and sea level. Our study of how faunal associations co-vary with long and short term sea level and temperature changes has implications for predicting the long-term effects of “dead zones” in modern oceans

Consistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora

Background The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years. Results Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology. Conclusions Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record

Maf1, a New Player in the Regulation of Human RNA Polymerase III Transcription

BACKGROUND: Human RNA polymerase III (pol III) transcription is regulated by several factors, including the tumor suppressors P53 and Rb, and the proto-oncogene c-Myc. In yeast, which lacks these proteins, a central regulator of pol III transcription, called Maf1, has been described. Maf1 is required for repression of pol III transcription in response to several signal transduction pathways and is broadly conserved in eukaryotes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show that human endogenous Maf1 can be co-immunoprecipitated with pol III and associates in vitro with two pol III subunits, the largest subunit RPC1 and the α-like subunit RPAC2. Maf1 represses pol III transcription in vitro and in vivo and is required for maximal pol III repression after exposure to MMS or rapamycin, treatments that both lead to Maf1 dephosphorylation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These data suggest that Maf1 is a major regulator of pol III transcription in human cells

The Distribution of GYR- and YLP-Like Motifs in Drosophila Suggests a General Role in Cuticle Assembly and Other Protein-Protein Interactions

Background: Arthropod cuticle is composed predominantly of a self-assembling matrix of chitin and protein. Genes encoding structural cuticular proteins are remarkably abundant in arthropod genomes, yet there has been no systematic survey of conserved motifs across cuticular protein families. Methodology/Principal Findings: Two short sequence motifs with conserved tyrosines were identified in Drosophila cuticular proteins that were similar to the GYR and YLP Interpro domains. These motifs were found in members of the CPR, Tweedle, CPF/CPFL, and (in Anopheles gambiae) CPLCG cuticular protein families, and the Dusky/Miniature family of cuticleassociated proteins. Tweedle proteins have a characteristic motif architecture that is shared with the Drosophila protein GCR1 and its orthologs in other species, suggesting that GCR1 is also cuticular. A resilin repeat, which has been shown to confer elasticity, matched one of the motifs; a number of other Drosophila proteins of unknown function exhibit a motif architecture similar to that of resilin. The motifs were also present in some proteins of the peritrophic matrix and the eggshell, suggesting molecular convergence among distinct extracellular matrices. More surprisingly, gene regulation, development, and proteolysis were statistically over-represented ontology terms for all non-cuticular matches in Drosophila. Searches against other arthropod genomes indicate that the motifs are taxonomically widespread. Conclusions: This survey suggests a more general definition for GYR and YLP motifs and reveals their contribution to severa

Role for the Mammalian Swi5-Sfr1 Complex in DNA Strand Break Repair through Homologous Recombination

In fission yeast, the Swi5-Sfr1 complex plays an important role in homologous recombination (HR), a pathway crucial for the maintenance of genomic integrity. Here we identify and characterize mammalian Swi5 and Sfr1 homologues. Mouse Swi5 and Sfr1 are nuclear proteins that form a complex in vivo and in vitro. Swi5 interacts in vitro with Rad51, the DNA strand-exchange protein which functions during HR. By generating Swi5−/− and Sfr1−/− embryonic stem cell lines, we found that both proteins are mutually interdependent for their stability. Importantly, the Swi5-Sfr1 complex plays a role in HR when Rad51 function is perturbed in vivo by expression of a BRC peptide from BRCA2. Swi5−/− and Sfr1−/− cells are selectively sensitive to agents that cause DNA strand breaks, in particular ionizing radiation, camptothecin, and the Parp inhibitor olaparib. Consistent with a role in HR, sister chromatid exchange induced by Parp inhibition is attenuated in Swi5−/− and Sfr1−/− cells, and chromosome aberrations are increased. Thus, Swi5-Sfr1 is a newly identified complex required for genomic integrity in mammalian cells with a specific role in the repair of DNA strand breaks