The heat is on: climate change, extreme heat and bushfires in WA

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of heatwaves in Western Australia and driving up the likelihood of very high fire danger weather. Western Australia is experiencing a long-term increase in average temperatures and in 2014 the state recorded its highest ever annual average maximum temperature. The number of heatwave days in Perth has increased by 50% since 1950. Nine of Western Australia’s hottest Januarys on record have occurred in the last 10 years. The number of days per year with severe fire danger weather is projected to almost double in south west Western Australia by 2090 if global carbon emissions are not drastically reduced. Recent fires in Western Australia have been influenced by record hot dry conditions. The long-term trend to hotter weather in Western Australia has worsened fire weather and contributed to an increase in the frequency and severity of bushfires. The concept of a normal bushfire season is rapidly changing as bushfires increase in number, burn for longer and affect larger areas of land. By 2030, the number of professional firefighters in WA will need to more than double to meet the increasing risk of bushfires. 3. The economic, social and environmental costs of increased extreme heat and bushfire activity is likely to be immense. In Perth, from 1994-2006, there were over 20 heat attributable deaths per year. If average maximum temperatures were 2°C warmer, this number would almost double to 40 deaths. Some of Western Australia’s most fire-prone regions may become unlivable as the risks to lives and property caused by bushfires continue to increase. Without effective action on climate change, there will be 20 times the number of dangerous days for outdoor workers by 2070, reducing productivity. 4. Tackling climate change is critical to protecting Western Australia’s prosperity. As a nation we must join the global effort to substantially reduce emissions and rapidly move away from fossil fuels to renewable energy if we are to limit the severity of extreme heat and bushfires both in Western Australia and nationally

The Mass Assembly of Fossil Groups of Galaxies in the Millennium Simulation

The evolution of present-day fossil galaxy groups is studied in the Millennium Simulation. Using the corresponding Millennium gas simulation and semi-analytic galaxy catalogues, we select fossil groups at redshift zero according to the conventional observational criteria, and trace the haloes corresponding to these groups backwards in time, extracting the associated dark matter, gas and galaxy properties. The space density of the fossils from this study is remarkably close to the observed estimates and various possibilities for the remaining discrepancy are discussed. The fraction of X-ray bright systems which are fossils appears to be in reasonable agreement with observation, and the simulations predict that fossil systems will be found in significant numbers (3-4% of the population) even in quite rich clusters. We find that fossils assemble a higher fraction of their mass at high redshift, compared to non-fossil groups, with the ratio of the currently assembled halo mass to final mass, at any epoch, being about 10 to 20% higher for fossils. This supports the paradigm whereby fossils represent undisturbed, early-forming systems in which large galaxies have merged to form a single dominant elliptical.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, submitted to MNRA

The extragalactic sub-mm population: predictions for the SCUBA Half-Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES)

We present predictions for the angular correlation function and redshift distribution for SHADES, the SCUBA HAlf-Degree Extragalactic Survey, which will yield a sample of around 300 sub-mm sources in the 850 micron waveband in two separate fields. Complete and unbiased photometric redshift information on these sub-mm sources will be derived by combining the SCUBA data with i) deep radio imaging already obtained with the VLA, ii) guaranteed-time Spitzer data at mid-infrared wavelengths, and iii) far-infrared maps to be produced by BLAST, the Balloon-borne Large-Aperture Sub-millimeter Telescope. Predictions for the redshift distribution and clustering properties of the final anticipated SHADES sample have been computed for a wide variety of models, each constrained to fit the observed number counts. Since we are dealing with around 150 sources per field, we use the sky-averaged angular correlation function to produce a more robust fit of a power-law shape w(theta)=(theta/A)^{-delta} to the model data. Comparing the predicted distributions of redshift and of the clustering amplitude A and slope delta, we find that models can be constrained from the combined SHADES data with the expected photometric redshift information.Comment: updated and improved version, accepted for publication in the MNRA

A multisite longitudinal evaluation of patient characteristics associated with a poor response to non-surgical multidisciplinary management of low back pain in an advanced practice physiotherapist-led tertiary service

Background: Non-surgical multidisciplinary management is often the first pathway of care for patients with chronic low back pain (LBP). This study explores if patient characteristics recorded at the initial service examination have an association with a poor response to this pathway of care in an advanced practice physiotherapist-led tertiary service. Methods: Two hundred and forty nine patients undergoing non-surgical multidisciplinary management for their LBP across 8 tertiary public hospitals in Queensland, Australia participated in this prospective longitudinal study. Generalised linear models (logistic family) examined the relationship between patient characteristics and a poor response at 6 months follow-up using a Global Rating of Change measure. Results: Overall 79 of the 178 (44%) patients completing the Global Rating of Change measure (28.5% loss to follow-up) reported a poor outcome. Patient characteristics retained in the final model associated with a poor response included lower Formal Education Level (ie did not complete school) (Odds Ratio (OR (95% confidence interval)) (2.67 (1.17–6.09), p = 0.02) and higher self-reported back disability (measured with the Oswestry Disability Index) (OR 1.33 (1.01–1.77) per 10/100 point score increase, p = 0.046). Conclusions: A low level of formal education and high level of self-reported back disability may be associated with a poor response to non-surgical multidisciplinary management of LBP in tertiary care. Patients with these characteristics may need greater assistance with regard to their comprehension of health information, and judicious monitoring of their response to facilitate timely alternative care if no benefits are attained.</p

Cosmic CARNage II: the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function in observations and galaxy formation models

We present a comparison of the observed evolving galaxy stellar mass functions with the predictions of eight semi-analytic models and one halo occupation distribution model. While most models are able to fit the data at low redshift, some of them struggle to simultaneously fit observations at high redshift. We separate the galaxies into 'passive' and 'star-forming' classes and find that several of the models produce too many low-mass star-forming galaxies at high redshift compared to observations, in some cases by nearly a factor of 10 in the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3.0. We also find important differences in the implied mass of the dark matter haloes the galaxies inhabit, by comparing with halo masses inferred from observations. Galaxies at high redshift in the models are in lower mass haloes than suggested by observations, and the star formation efficiency in low-mass haloes is higher than observed. We conclude that many of the models require a physical prescription that acts to dissociate the growth of low-mass galaxies from the growth of their dark matter haloes at high redshift.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y GeofísicasInstituto de Astrofísica de La Plat

Cosmic CARNage II: the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass functionin observations and galaxy formation models

We present a comparison of the observed evolving galaxy stellar mass functions with the predictions of eight semi-analytic models and one halo occupation distribution model. While most models are able to fit the data at low redshift, some of them struggle to simultaneously fit observations at high redshift. We separate the galaxies into ‘passive’ and ‘star-forming’ classes and find that several of the models produce too many low-mass star-forming galaxies at high redshift compared to observations, in some cases by nearly a factor of 10 in the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3.0. We also find important differences in the implied mass of the dark matter haloes the galaxies inhabit, by comparing with halo masses inferred from observations. Galaxies at high redshift in the models are in lower mass haloes than suggested by observations, and the star formation efficiency in low-mass haloes is higher than observed. We conclude that many of the models require a physical prescription that acts to dissociate the growth of low-mass galaxies from the growth of their dark matter haloes at high redshift

Can hedgerow management mitigate the impacts of predation on songbird nest survival?

Nest predators can have significant impacts on songbird reproductive success. These impacts may be amplified by habitat simplification and here we test whether sympathetic management of farmland hedgerows can reduce nest depredation, especially by corvids. We test whether songbirds select nest sites according to structural features of hedgerows (including nest visibility and accessibility), and whether these features influence nest predation risk. Songbirds selected nesting sites affording higher vegetation cover above the nest, increased visibility on the nest-side of the hedgerow and reduced visibility on the far side of the hedge. Nest survival was unrelated to corvid abundance and only weakly related (at the egg stage) to corvid nest proximity. Nest survival at the chick stage was higher where vegetation structure restricted access to corvid-sized predators (averaging 0.78 vs. 0.53), and at nests close to potential vantage points. Overall nest survival was sensitive to hedgerow structure (accessibility) particularly at low exposure to corvid predation, while the overall impact of corvid exposure was dependent on the relationship involving proximity to vantage points. Nest survival over the chick stage was much higher (0.67) in stock-proof, trimmed and mechanically cut hedgerows, (which tended to provide lower side visibility and accessibility) than in recently laid, remnant or leggy hedgerows (0.18). Long-term reductions in the management of British hedgerows may therefore be exposing nesting songbirds to increased predation risk. We recommend regular rotational cutting of hedgerows to maintain a dense woody structure and thereby reduce songbird nest predation

Physics, Astrophysics and Cosmology with Gravitational Waves

Gravitational wave detectors are already operating at interesting sensitivity levels, and they have an upgrade path that should result in secure detections by 2014. We review the physics of gravitational waves, how they interact with detectors (bars and interferometers), and how these detectors operate. We study the most likely sources of gravitational waves and review the data analysis methods that are used to extract their signals from detector noise. Then we consider the consequences of gravitational wave detections and observations for physics, astrophysics, and cosmology.Comment: 137 pages, 16 figures, Published version <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2009-2