The Dynamics of Regionalisation and Trade Yorkshire Clay Tobacco Pipes C.1600-1800

At the heart of this study lies an illustrated catalogue of over 2,200 clay pipes dating from the 17th and 18th centuries, the majority of which are held in Yorkshire collections

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Листи щастя, або Фантастичні пригоди наївного генія

Objectives: This study builds on research undertaken by Bernasco and Nieuwbeerta and explores the generalizability of a theoretically derived offender target selection model in three cross-national study regions. Methods: Taking a discrete spatial choice approach, we estimate the impact of both environment- and offender-level factors on residential burglary placement in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Combining cleared burglary data from all study regions in a single statistical model, we make statistical comparisons between environments. Results: In all three study regions, the likelihood an offender selects an area for burglary is positively influenced by proximity to their home, the proportion of easily accessible targets, and the total number of targets available. Furthermore, in two of the three study regions, juvenile offenders under the legal driving age are significantly more influenced by target proximity than adult offenders. Post hoc tests indicate the magnitudes of these impacts vary significantly between study regions. Conclusions: While burglary target selection strategies are consistent with opportunity-based explanations of offending, the impact of environmental context is significant. As such, the approach undertaken in combining observations from multiple study regions may aid criminology scholars in assessing the generalizability of observed findings across multiple environments

An Optical Counterpart to the Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 4U 0142+61

The energy source of the anomalous X-ray pulsars is not well understood, hence their designation as anomalous. Unlike binary X-ray pulsars, no companions are seen, so the energy cannot be supplied by accretion of matter from a companion star. The loss of rotational energy, which powers radio pulsars, is insufficient to power AXPs. Two models are generally considered: accretion from a large disk left over from the birth process, or decay of a very strong magnetic field (10^15 G) associated with a 'magnetar'. The lack of counterparts at other wavelengths has hampered progress in our understanding of these objects. Here, we present deep optical observations of the field around 4U 0142+61, which is the brightest AXP in X-rays. We find an object with peculiar optical colours at the position of the X-ray source, and argue that it is the optical counterpart. The optical emission is too faint to admit the presence of a large accretion disk, but may be consistent with magnetospheric emission from a magnetar.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, accepted by Nature. Press embargo until 1900 hrs London time (GMT) on 6 December 200

The detection of the imprint of filaments on cosmic microwave background lensing

Galaxy redshift surveys, such as 2dF, SDSS, 6df, GAMA and VIPERS, have shown that the spatial distribution of matter forms a rich web, known as the cosmic web. The majority of galaxy survey analyses measure the amplitude of galaxy clustering as a function of scale, ignoring information beyond a small number of summary statistics. Since the matter density field becomes highly non-Gaussian as structure evolves under gravity, we expect other statistical descriptions of the field to provide us with additional information. One way to study the non-Gaussianity is to study filaments, which evolve non-linearly from the initial density fluctuations produced in the primordial Universe. In our study, we report the first detection of CMB (Cosmic Microwave Background) lensing by filaments and we apply a null test to confirm our detection. Furthermore, we propose a phenomenological model to interpret the detected signal and we measure how filaments trace the matter distribution on large scales through filament bias, which we measure to be around 1.5. Our study provides a new scope to understand the environmental dependence of galaxy formation. In the future, the joint analysis of lensing and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich observations might reveal the properties of `missing baryons', the vast majority of the gas which resides in the intergalactic medium and has so far evaded most observations

Percentile Queries in Multi-Dimensional Markov Decision Processes

Markov decision processes (MDPs) with multi-dimensional weights are useful to analyze systems with multiple objectives that may be conflicting and require the analysis of trade-offs. We study the complexity of percentile queries in such MDPs and give algorithms to synthesize strategies that enforce such constraints. Given a multi-dimensional weighted MDP and a quantitative payoff function $f$, thresholds $v_i$ (one per dimension), and probability thresholds $\alpha_i$, we show how to compute a single strategy to enforce that for all dimensions $i$, the probability of outcomes $\rho$ satisfying $f_i(\rho) \geq v_i$ is at least $\alpha_i$. We consider classical quantitative payoffs from the literature (sup, inf, lim sup, lim inf, mean-payoff, truncated sum, discounted sum). Our work extends to the quantitative case the multi-objective model checking problem studied by Etessami et al. in unweighted MDPs.Comment: Extended version of CAV 2015 pape

Genomic analysis and comparison of two gonorrhoea outbreaks

© 2016 Didelot et al.Gonorrhea is a sexually transmitted disease causing growing concern, with a substantial increase in reported incidence over the past few years in the United Kingdom and rising levels of resistance to a wide range of antibiotics. Understanding its epidemiology is therefore of major biomedical importance, not only on a population scale but also at the level of direct transmission. However, the molecular typing techniques traditionally used for gonorrhea infections do not provide sufficient resolution to investigate such fine-scale patterns. Here we sequenced the genomes of 237 isolates from two local collections of isolates from Sheffield and London, each of which was resolved into a single type using traditional methods. The two data sets were selected to have different epidemiological properties: the Sheffield data were collected over 6 years from a predominantly heterosexual population, whereas the London data were gathered within half a year and strongly associated with men who have sex with men. Based on contact tracing information between individuals in Sheffield, we found that transmission is associated with a median time to most recent common ancestor of 3.4 months, with an upper bound of 8 months, which we used as a criterion to identify likely transmission links in both data sets. In London, we found that transmission happened predominantly between individuals of similar age, sexual orientation, and location and also with the same HIV serostatus, which may reflect serosorting and associated risk behaviors. Comparison of the two data sets suggests that the London epidemic involved about ten times more cases than the Sheffield outbreak. IMPORTANCE: The recent increases in gonorrhea incidence and antibiotic resistance are cause for public health concern. Successful intervention requires a better understanding of transmission patterns, which is not uncovered by traditional molecular epidemiology techniques. Here we studied two outbreaks that took place in Sheffield and London, United Kingdom. We show that whole-genome sequencing provides the resolution to investigate direct gonorrhea transmission between infected individuals. Combining genome sequencing with rich epidemiological information about infected individuals reveals the importance of several transmission routes and risk factors, which can be used to design better control measures

Sebaceous adenitis in Swedish dogs, a retrospective study of 104 cases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Sebaceous adenitis (SA) is an uncommon, immune mediated skin disease in dogs. The aim was to retrospectively investigate SA in dogs in Sweden with respect to breed, sex and age distribution. A second aim was to retrospectively compare clinical signs in dogs with generalized SA and to estimate the survival after diagnosis in the English springer spaniel, standard poodle and the akita.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In total 34 Swedish veterinarians contributed with 104 clinically and histologically verified SA cases. Breed, gender and age at diagnosis were registered for each case. The degree of clinical signs at time for diagnosis and at follow-up and information about treatments, concurrent diseases and euthanasia were recorded for the springer spaniels, standard poodles and akitas using a standardized questionnaire.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 104 cases of SA were included; most cases were recorded for the springer spaniel (n = 25), standard poodle (n = 21) and the akita (n = 10). These three breeds, together with the lhasa apso and the chow-chow, were the most common when national registry data from the Swedish Board of Agriculture and Swedish Kennel Club were considered. The mean age at diagnosis was 4.8 years. The proportion of males was 61%. When the springer spaniels, standard poodles and the akitas with generalized signs were compared (n = 51), the spaniels showed significantly more severe clinical signs than the poodles at diagnosis regarding alopecia, seborrhoea, pyoderma and the overall severity of clinical signs. At follow-up, the degree of clinical signs for otitis externa and pyoderma differed significantly between the breeds. The estimated median survival time was 42 months.</p> <p>In dogs where data regarding survival was available at the end of the study (n = 44), SA was reported to be the reason for euthanasia in 14 dogs, whereof 7 within 24 months after diagnosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The result of this study implicates that the English springer spaniel is a breed predisposed to SA and that it has more severe clinical signs than the standard poodle. A large proportion of the dogs (spaniel, poodle and akita) investigated regarding survival were reported to have been euthanized to great extent due to the disease.</p