A Bayesian explanation of the 'Uncanny Valley' effect and related psychological phenomena

There are a number of psychological phenomena in which dramatic emotional responses are evoked by seemingly innocuous perceptual stimuli. A well known example is the ‘uncanny valley’ effect whereby a near human-looking artifact can trigger feelings of eeriness and repulsion. Although such phenomena are reasonably well documented, there is no quantitative explanation for the findings and no mathematical model that is capable of predicting such behavior. Here I show (using a Bayesian model of categorical perception) that differential perceptual distortion arising from stimuli containing conflicting cues can give rise to a perceptual tension at category boundaries that could account for these phenomena. The model is not only the first quantitative explanation of the uncanny valley effect, but it may also provide a mathematical explanation for a range of social situations in which conflicting cues give rise to negative, fearful or even violent reactions

Biological measurement beyond the quantum limit

Quantum noise places a fundamental limit on the per photon sensitivity attainable in optical measurements. This limit is of particular importance in biological measurements, where the optical power must be constrained to avoid damage to the specimen. By using non-classically correlated light, we demonstrated that the quantum limit can be surpassed in biological measurements. Quantum enhanced microrheology was performed within yeast cells by tracking naturally occurring lipid granules with sensitivity 2.4 dB beyond the quantum noise limit. The viscoelastic properties of the cytoplasm could thereby be determined with a 64% improved measurement rate. This demonstration paves the way to apply quantum resources broadly in a biological context

Phylogenetic representativeness: a new method for evaluating taxon sampling in evolutionary studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Taxon sampling is a major concern in phylogenetic studies. Incomplete, biased, or improper taxon sampling can lead to misleading results in reconstructing evolutionary relationships. Several theoretical methods are available to optimize taxon choice in phylogenetic analyses. However, most involve some knowledge about the genetic relationships of the group of interest (i.e., the ingroup), or even a well-established phylogeny itself; these data are not always available in general phylogenetic applications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We propose a new method to assess taxon sampling developing Clarke and Warwick statistics. This method aims to measure the "phylogenetic representativeness" of a given sample or set of samples and it is based entirely on the pre-existing available taxonomy of the ingroup, which is commonly known to investigators. Moreover, our method also accounts for instability and discordance in taxonomies. A Python-based script suite, called PhyRe, has been developed to implement all analyses we describe in this paper.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We show that this method is sensitive and allows direct discrimination between representative and unrepresentative samples. It is also informative about the addition of taxa to improve taxonomic coverage of the ingroup. Provided that the investigators' expertise is mandatory in this field, phylogenetic representativeness makes up an objective touchstone in planning phylogenetic studies.</p

Implications of the HIV testing protocol for refusal bias in seroprevalence surveys

BACKGROUND: HIV serosurveys have become important sources of HIV prevalence estimates, but these estimates may be biased because of refusals and other forms of non-response. We investigate the effect of the post-test counseling study protocol on bias due to the refusal to be tested. METHODS: Data come from a nine-month prospective study of hospital admissions in Addis Ababa during which patients were approached for an HIV test. Patients had the choice between three consent levels: testing and post-test counseling (including the return of HIV test results), testing without post-test counseling, and total refusal. For all patients, information was collected on basic sociodemographic background characteristics as well as admission diagnosis. The three consent levels are used to mimic refusal bias in serosurveys with different post-test counseling study protocols. We first investigate the covariates of consent for testing. Second, we quantify refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates using Heckman regression models that account for sample selection. RESULTS: Refusal to be tested positively correlates with admission diagnosis (and thus HIV status), but the magnitude of refusal bias in HIV prevalence surveys depends on the study protocol. Bias is larger when post-test counseling and the return of HIV test results is a prerequisite of study participation (compared to a protocol where test results are not returned to study participants, or, where there is an explicit provision for respondents to forego post-test counseling). We also find that consent for testing increased following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia. Other covariates of refusal are age (non-linear effect), gender (higher refusal rates in men), marital status (lowest refusal rates in singles), educational status (refusal rate increases with educational attainment), and counselor. CONCLUSION: The protocol for post-test counseling and the return of HIV test results to study participants is an important consideration in HIV prevalence surveys that wish to minimize refusal bias. The availability of ART is likely to reduce refusal rates

Preoperative predictors for residual tumor after surgery in patients with ovarian carcinoma

Objectives: Suboptimal debulking (>1 cm residual tumor) results in poor survival rates for patients with an advanced stage of ovarian cancer. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model, based on simple preoperative parameters, for patients with an advanced stage of ovarian cancer who are at risk of suboptimal cytoreduction despite maximal surgical effort. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 187 consecutive patients with a suspected clinical diagnosis of advanced-stage ovarian cancer undergoing upfront debulking between January 1998 and December 2003. Preoperative parameters were Karnofsky performance status, ascites and serum concentrations of CA 125, hemoglobin, albumin, LDH and blood platelets. The main outcome parameter was residual tumor >1 cm. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was employed for testing possible prediction models. A clinically applicable graphic model (nomogram) for this prediction was to be developed. Results: Serum concentrations of CA 125 and blood platelets in the group with residual tumor >1 cm were higher in comparison to the optimally cytoreduced group (p 1 cm based on serum levels of CA 125 and albumin was established. Conclusion: Postoperative residual tumor despite maximal surgical effort can be predicted by preoperative CA 125 and serum albumin levels. With a nomogram based on these two parameters, probability of postoperative residual tumor in each individual patient can be predicted. This proposed nomogram may be valuable in daily routine practice for counseling and to select treatment modality. Copyrigh

Dynamism in the solar core

Recent results of a mixed shell model heated asymmetrically by transient increases in nuclear burning indicate the transient generation of small hot spots inside the Sun somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2 solar radii. These hot bubbles are followed by a nonlinear differential equation system with finite amplitude non-homologous perturbations which is solved in a solar model. Our results show the possibility of a direct connection between the dynamic phenomena of the solar core and the atmospheric activity. Namely, an initial heating about DQ_0 ~ 10^{31}-10^{37} ergs can be enough for a bubble to reach the outer convective zone. Our calculations show that a hot bubble can arrive into subphotospheric regions with DQ_final ~ 10^{28} - 10^{34} ergs with a high speed, up to 10 km s-1, approaching the local sound speed. We point out that the developing sonic boom transforms the shock front into accelerated particle beam injected upwards into the top of loop carried out by the hot bubble above its forefront traveling from the solar interior. As a result, a new perspective arises to explain flare energetics. We show that the particle beams generated by energetic deep-origin hot bubbles in the subphotospheric layers have masses, energies, and chemical compositions in the observed range of solar chromospheric and coronal flares. It is shown how the emergence of a hot bubble into subphotospheric regions offers a natural mechanism that can generate both the eruption leading to the flare and the observed coronal magnetic topology for reconnection. We show a list of long-standing problems of solar physics that our model explains. We present some predictions for observations, some of which are planned to be realized in the near future.Comment: 44 pages, 20 figure

Looking inside the spiky bits : a critical review and conceptualisation of entrepreneurial ecosystems

The authors wish to thank the Organisational for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for funding their original research on entrepreneurial ecosystems.The concept of entrepreneurial ecosystems has quickly established itself as one of the latest ‘fads’ in entrepreneurship research. At face value, this kind of systemic approach to entrepreneurship offers a new and distinctive path for scholars and policy makers to help understand and foster growth-oriented entrepreneurship. However, its lack of specification and conceptual limitations has undoubtedly hindered our understanding of these complex organisms. Indeed, the rapid adoption of the concept has tended to overlook the heterogeneous nature of ecosystems. This paper provides a critical review and conceptualisation of the ecosystems concept: it unpacks the dynamics of the concept; outlines its theoretical limitations; measurement approaches and use in policy-making. It sets out a preliminary taxonomy of different archetypal ecosystems. The paper concludes that entrepreneurial ecosystems are a highly variegated, multi-actor and multi-scalar phenomenon, requiring bespoke policy interventions.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112