Dynamic Bayesian Combination of Multiple Imperfect Classifiers

Classifier combination methods need to make best use of the outputs of multiple, imperfect classifiers to enable higher accuracy classifications. In many situations, such as when human decisions need to be combined, the base decisions can vary enormously in reliability. A Bayesian approach to such uncertain combination allows us to infer the differences in performance between individuals and to incorporate any available prior knowledge about their abilities when training data is sparse. In this paper we explore Bayesian classifier combination, using the computationally efficient framework of variational Bayesian inference. We apply the approach to real data from a large citizen science project, Galaxy Zoo Supernovae, and show that our method far outperforms other established approaches to imperfect decision combination. We go on to analyse the putative community structure of the decision makers, based on their inferred decision making strategies, and show that natural groupings are formed. Finally we present a dynamic Bayesian classifier combination approach and investigate the changes in base classifier performance over time.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figure

Anomalous diffusion and the first passage time problem

We study the distribution of first passage time (FPT) in Levy type of anomalous diffusion. Using recently formulated fractional Fokker-Planck equation we obtain three results. (1) We derive an explicit expression for the FPT distribution in terms of Fox or H-functions when the diffusion has zero drift. (2) For the nonzero drift case we obtain an analytical expression for the Laplace transform of the FPT distribution. (3) We express the FPT distribution in terms of a power series for the case of two absorbing barriers. The known results for ordinary diffusion (Brownian motion) are obtained as special cases of our more general results.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figure

Time-integrated luminosity recorded by the BABAR detector at the PEP-II e+e- collider

This article is the Preprint version of the final published artcile which can be accessed at the link below.We describe a measurement of the time-integrated luminosity of the data collected by the BABAR experiment at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy e+e- collider at the ϒ(4S), ϒ(3S), and ϒ(2S) resonances and in a continuum region below each resonance. We measure the time-integrated luminosity by counting e+e-→e+e- and (for the ϒ(4S) only) e+e-→μ+μ- candidate events, allowing additional photons in the final state. We use data-corrected simulation to determine the cross-sections and reconstruction efficiencies for these processes, as well as the major backgrounds. Due to the large cross-sections of e+e-→e+e- and e+e-→μ+μ-, the statistical uncertainties of the measurement are substantially smaller than the systematic uncertainties. The dominant systematic uncertainties are due to observed differences between data and simulation, as well as uncertainties on the cross-sections. For data collected on the ϒ(3S) and ϒ(2S) resonances, an additional uncertainty arises due to ϒ→e+e-X background. For data collected off the ϒ resonances, we estimate an additional uncertainty due to time dependent efficiency variations, which can affect the short off-resonance runs. The relative uncertainties on the luminosities of the on-resonance (off-resonance) samples are 0.43% (0.43%) for the ϒ(4S), 0.58% (0.72%) for the ϒ(3S), and 0.68% (0.88%) for the ϒ(2S).This work is supported by the US Department of Energy and National Science Foundation, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Canada), the Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique and Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physiquedes Particules (France), the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany), the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (Italy), the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter (The Netherlands), the Research Council of Norway, the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain), and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie IEF program (European Union) and the A.P. Sloan Foundation (USA)

Phenotypic Plasticity and Contemporary Evolution in Introduced Populations: Evidence from Translocated Populations of White Sands Pupfish (Cyrpinodon tularosa)

Contemporary evolution has been shown in a few studies to be an important component of colonization ability, but seldom have researchers considered whether phenotypic plasticity facilitates directional evolution from the invasion event. In the current study, we evaluated body shape divergence of the New Mexico State-threatened White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa) that were introduced to brackish, lacustrine habitats at two different time in the recent past (approximately 30 years and 1 year previously) from the same source population (saline river environment). Pupfish body shape is correlated with environmental salinity: fish from saline habitats are characterized by slender body shapes, whereas fish from fresher, yet brackish springs are deep-bodied. In this study, lacustrine populations consisted of an approximately 30-year old population and several 1-year old populations, all introduced from the same source. The body shape divergence of the 30-year old population was significant and greater than any of the divergences of the 1-year old populations (which were for the most part not significant). Nonetheless, all body shape changes exhibited body deepening in less saline environments. We conclude that phenotypic plasticity potentially facilitates directional evolution of body deepening for introduced pupfish populations

Effect of lactation stage and concurrent pregnancy on milk composition in the bottlenose dolphin

Although many toothed whales (Cetacea: Odontoceti) lactate for 2–3 years or more, it is not known whether milk composition is affected by lactation stage in any odontocete species. We collected 64 pooled milk samples spanning 1–30 months postpartum from three captive bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus. Milks were assayed for water, fat, crude protein (TN × 6.38) and sugar; gross energy was calculated. Ovulation and pregnancy were determined via monitoring of milk progesterone. Based on analysis of changes in milk composition for each individual dolphin, there were significant increases (P<0.05) in fat (in all three dolphins) and crude protein (in two of three), and a decrease (P<0.05) in water (in two of three) over the course of lactation, but the sugar content did not change. In all three animals, the energy content was positively correlated with month of lactation, but the percentage of energy provided by crude protein declined slightly but significantly (P<0.05). At mid-lactation (7–12 months postpartum, n=17), milk averaged 73.0±1.0% water, 12.8±1.0% fat, 8.9±0.5% crude protein, 1.0±0.1% sugar, 1.76±0.09 kcal g−1 (=7.25 kJ g−1) and 30.3±1.3% protein:energy per cent. This protein:energy per cent was surprisingly high compared with other cetaceans and in relation to the growth rates of calves. Milk progesterone indicated that dolphins ovulated and conceived between 413 and 673 days postpartum, following an increase in milk energy density. The significance of these observed compositional changes to calf nutrition will depend on the amounts of milk produced at different stages of lactation, and how milk composition and yield are influenced by sampling procedure, maternal diet and maternal condition, none of which are known

Observation of the baryonic decay B \uaf 0 \u2192 \u39bc+ p \uaf K-K+

We report the observation of the baryonic decay B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uafK-K+ using a data sample of 471 7106 BB\uaf pairs produced in e+e- annihilations at s=10.58GeV. This data sample was recorded with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II storage ring at SLAC. We find B(B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uafK-K+)=(2.5\ub10.4(stat)\ub10.2(syst)\ub10.6B(\u39bc+)) 710-5, where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic, and due to the uncertainty of the \u39bc+\u2192pK-\u3c0+ branching fraction, respectively. The result has a significance corresponding to 5.0 standard deviations, including all uncertainties. For the resonant decay B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uaf\u3c6, we determine the upper limit B(B\uaf0\u2192\u39bc+p\uaf\u3c6)<1.2 710-5 at 90% confidence level

Seasonal acclimatization to temperature in cardueline finches

1. Seasonal variation in body constituents and utilization of lipid, protein, and carbohydrate during cold stress in American goldfinches were studied to determine relations of these functions to the pronounced seasonal shift in thermogenic capacity documented in a previous study (Dawson and Carey, 1976).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47119/1/360_2004_Article_BF00686746.pd