Comparison of the effect of hazard and response/fragility uncertainties on core melt probability uncertainty

This report proposes a method for comparing the effects of the uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) input parameters on the uncertainty in the predicted risks. The proposed method is applied to compare the effect of uncertainties in the descriptions of (1) the seismic hazard at a nuclear power plant site and (2) random variations in plant subsystem responses and component fragility on the uncertainty in the predicted probability of core melt. The PRA used is that developed by the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program

Using subjective percentiles and test data for estimating fragility functions

Fragility functions are cumulative distribution functions (cdfs) of strengths at failure. They are needed for reliability analyses of systems such as power generation and transmission systems. Subjective opinions supplement sparse test data for estimating fragility functions. Often the opinions are opinions on the percentiles of the fragility function. Subjective percentiles are likely to be less biased than opinions on parameters of cdfs. Solutions to several problems in the estimation of fragility functions are found for subjective percentiles and test data. How subjective percentiles should be used to estimate subjective fragility functions, how subjective percentiles should be combined with test data, how fragility functions for several failure modes should be combined into a composite fragility function, and how inherent randomness and uncertainty due to lack of knowledge should be represented are considered. Subjective percentiles are treated as independent estimates of percentiles. The following are derived: least-squares parameter estimators for normal and lognormal cdfs, based on subjective percentiles (the method is applicable to any invertible cdf); a composite fragility function for combining several failure modes; estimators of variation within and between groups of experts for nonidentically distributed subjective percentiles; weighted least-squares estimators when subjective percentiles have higher variation at higher percents; and weighted least-squares and Bayes parameter estimators based on combining subjective percentiles and test data. 4 figures, 2 tables

Probabilistic approach to EMP assessment

The development of nuclear EMP hardness requirements must account for uncertainties in the environment, in interaction and coupling, and in the susceptibility of subsystems and components. Typical uncertainties of the last two kinds are briefly summarized, and an assessment methodology is outlined, based on a probabilistic approach that encompasses the basic concepts of reliability. It is suggested that statements of survivability be made compatible with system reliability. Validation of the approach taken for simple antenna/circuit systems is performed with experiments and calculations that involve a Transient Electromagnetic Range, numerical antenna modeling, separate device failure data, and a failure analysis computer program

Seismic Safety Margins Research Program load combination project, Task 3. Load combination methodology development. Interim report 1

This is the first interim report giving the results to date on the development of a load combination methodology. After a brief background, the objectives and scope of the load combination methodology task are listed. This is followed by user oriented requirements on the methodology. The proposed methodology is then introduced and simply demonstrated. Examples of similar applications of the reliability based methodology are presented and accompanied by a listing of some of the unique considerations in applying this type of methodology to nuclear design. A fairly detailed exposition of a component reliability and design code optimization scheme is given along with a brief discussion of system and plant reliability considerations

Sex Difference and Rupture Rate of Intracranial Aneurysms : An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Background and Purpose: In previous studies, women had a higher risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms than men, but female sex was not an independent risk factor. This may be explained by a higher prevalence of patient- or aneurysm-related risk factors for rupture in women than in men or by insufficient power of previous studies. We assessed sex differences in rupture rate taking into account other patient- and aneurysm-related risk factors for aneurysmal rupture. Methods: We searched Embase and Pubmed for articles published until December 1, 2020. Cohorts with available individual patient data were included in our meta-analysis. We compared rupture rates of women versus men using a Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusted for the PHASES score (Population, Hypertension, Age, Size of Aneurysm, Earlier Subarachnoid Hemorrhage From Another Aneurysm, Site of Aneurysm), smoking, and a positive family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Results: We pooled individual patient data from 9 cohorts totaling 9940 patients (6555 women, 66%) with 12 193 unruptured intracranial aneurysms, and 24 357 person-years follow-up. Rupture occurred in 163 women (rupture rate 1.04%/person-years [95% CI, 0.89-1.21]) and 63 men (rupture rate 0.74%/person-years [95% CI, 0.58-0.94]). Women were older (61.9 versus 59.5 years), were less often smokers (20% versus 44%), more often had internal carotid artery aneurysms (24% versus 17%), and larger sized aneurysms (>= 7 mm, 24% versus 23%) than men. The unadjusted women-to-men hazard ratio was 1.43 (95% CI, 1.07-1.93) and the adjusted women/men ratio was 1.39 (95% CI, 1.02-1.90). Conclusions: Women have a higher risk of aneurysmal rupture than men and this sex difference is not explained by differences in patient- and aneurysm-related risk factors for aneurysmal rupture. Future studies should focus on the factors explaining the higher risk of aneurysmal rupture in women.Peer reviewe

Phase-rectified signal averaging method to predict perinatal outcome in infants with very preterm fetal growth restriction- a secondary analysis of TRUFFLE-trial

BACKGROUND: Phase-rectified signal averaging, an innovative signal processing technique, can be used to investigate quasi-periodic oscillations in noisy, nonstationary signals that are obtained from fetal heart rate. Phase-rectified signal averaging is currently the best method to predict survival after myocardial infarction in adult cardiology. Application of this method to fetal medicine has established significantly better identification than with short-term variation by computerized cardiotocography of growth-restricted fetuses. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the longitudinal progression of phase-rectified signal averaging indices in severely growth-restricted human fetuses and the prognostic accuracy of the technique in relation to perinatal and neurologic outcome. STUDY DESIGN: Raw data from cardiotocography monitoring of 279 human fetuses were obtained from 8 centers that took part in the multicenter European “TRUFFLE” trial on optimal timing of delivery in fetal growth restriction. Average acceleration and deceleration capacities were calculated by phase-rectified signal averaging to establish progression from 5 days to 1 day before delivery and were compared with short-term variation progression. The receiver operating characteristic curves of average acceleration and deceleration capacities and short-term variation were calculated and compared between techniques for short- and intermediate-term outcome. RESULTS: Average acceleration and deceleration capacities and short-term variation showed a progressive decrease in their diagnostic indices of fetal health from the first examination 5 days before delivery to 1 day before delivery. However, this decrease was significant 3 days before delivery for average acceleration and deceleration capacities, but 2 days before delivery for short-term variation. Compared with analysis of changes in short-term variation, analysis of (delta) average acceleration and deceleration capacities better predicted values of Apgar scores <7 and antenatal death (area under the curve for prediction of antenatal death: delta average acceleration capacity, 0.62 [confidence interval, 0.19–1.0]; delta short-term variation, 0.54 [confidence interval, 0.13–0.97]; P=.006; area under the curve for prediction Apgar <7: average deceleration capacity <24 hours before delivery, 0.64 [confidence interval, 0.52–0.76]; short-term variation <24 hours before delivery, 0.53 [confidence interval, 0.40–0.65]; P=.015). Neither phase-rectified signal averaging indices nor short-term variation showed predictive power for developmental disability at 2 years of age (Bayley developmental quotient, <95 or <85). CONCLUSIONS: The phase-rectified signal averaging method seems to be at least as good as short-term variation to monitor progressive deterioration of severely growth-restricted fetuses. Our findings suggest that for short-term outcomes such as Apgar score, phase-rectified signal averaging indices could be an even better test than short-term variation. Overall, our findings confirm the possible value of prospective trials based on phase-rectified signal averaging indices of autonomic nervous system of severely growth-restricted fetuses

The activation of eco-driving mental models: can text messages prime drivers to use their existing knowledge and skills?

Eco-driving campaigns have traditionally assumed that drivers lack the necessary knowledge and skills and that this is something that needs rectifying. Therefore, many support systems have been designed to closely guide drivers and fine-tune their proficiency. However, research suggests that drivers already possess a substantial amount of the necessary knowledge and skills regarding eco-driving. In previous studies, participants used these effectively when they were explicitly asked to drive fuel-efficiently. In contrast, they used their safe driving skills when they were instructed to drive as they would normally. Hence, it is assumed that many drivers choose not to engage purposefully in eco-driving in their everyday lives. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of simple, periodic text messages (nine messages in 2 weeks) on drivers’ eco- and safe driving performance. It was hypothesised that provision of eco-driving primes and advice would encourage the activation of their eco-driving mental models and that comparable safety primes increase driving safety. For this purpose, a driving simulator experiment was conducted. All participants performed a pre-test drive and were then randomly divided into four groups, which received different interventions. For a period of 2 weeks, one group received text messages with eco-driving primes and another group received safety primes. A third group received advice messages on how to eco-drive. The fourth group were instructed by the experimenter to drive fuel-efficiently, immediately before driving, with no text message intervention. A post-test drive measured behavioural changes in scenarios deemed relevant to eco- and safe driving. The results suggest that the eco-driving prime and advice text messages did not have the desired effect. In comparison, asking drivers to drive fuel-efficiently led to eco-driving behaviours. These outcomes demonstrate the difficulty in changing ingrained habits. Future research is needed to strengthen such messages or activate existing knowledge and skills in other ways, so driver behaviour can be changed in cost-efficient ways

The TRUFFLE study; fetal monitoring indications for delivery in 310 IUGR infants with 2 year's outcome delivered before 32 weeks of gestation.

OBJECTIVE: In the TRUFFLE study on outcome of early fetal growth restriction women were allocated to three timing of delivery plans according to antenatal monitoring strategies based on reduced computerized cardiotocographic heart rate short term variation (c-CTG STV) , early Ductus Venosus (DV p95) or late DV (DV noA) changes. However, many infants were per protocol delivered because of 'safety net' criteria, or for maternal indications, or 'other fetal indications' or after 32 weeks of gestation when the protocol was not applied anymore. It was the objective of the present post-hoc sub-analysis to investigate the indications for delivery in relation to outcome at 2 years in infants delivered before 32 weeks, to come to a further refinement of management proposals. METHODS: we included all 310 cases of the TRUFFLE study with known outcome at 2 years corrected age and 7 perinatal and infant deaths, apart from 7 cases with an inevitable death. Data were analyzed according to the randomization allocation and specified for the intervention indication. RESULTS: overall only 32% of fetuses born alive were delivered according to the specified monitoring parameter for indication for delivery. 38% were delivered because of safety net criteria, 15% because of other fetal reasons and 15% because of maternal reasons. In the c-CTG arm 51% of infants were delivered because of reduced STV. In the DV p95 arm 34% were delivered because of an abnormal DV and in the DV no A wave arm only 10% of cases were delivered accordingly. The majority of fetuses in the DV arms delivered for safety net criteria were delivered because of spontaneous decelerations. Two year's intact survival was highest in the combined DV arms as compared to the c-CTG arm (p = 0.05 when life born, p = 0.21 including fetal death), with no difference between the DV arms. Poorer outcome in the c-CTG arm was restricted to fetuses delivered because of decelerations in the safety net subgroup. Infants delivered because of maternal reasons had the highest birth weight and a non-significant higher intact survival. CONCLUSIONS: In this sub-analysis of fetuses delivered before 32 weeks the majority of infants were delivered for other reasons than according to the allocated CTG or DV monitoring strategy. Since in the DV arms CTG criteria were used as safety net criteria, but in the c-CTG arms no DV safety net criteria were applied, we speculate that the slightly poorer outcome in the CTG arm might be explained by absence of DV data. Optimal timing of delivery of the early IUGR fetus may therefore best be achieved by monitoring them longitudinally with DV and CTG monitoring

Clofazimine Inhibits Human Kv1.3 Potassium Channel by Perturbing Calcium Oscillation in T Lymphocytes

The Kv1.3 potassium channel plays an essential role in effector memory T cells and has been implicated in several important autoimmune diseases including multiple sclerosis, psoriasis and type 1 diabetes. A number of potent small molecule inhibitors of Kv1.3 channel have been reported, some of which were found to be effective in various animal models of autoimmune diseases. We report herein the identification of clofazimine, a known anti-mycobacterial drug, as a novel inhibitor of human Kv1.3. Clofazimine was initially identified as an inhibitor of intracellular T cell receptor-mediated signaling leading to the transcriptional activation of human interleukin-2 gene in T cells from a screen of the Johns Hopkins Drug Library. A systematic mechanistic deconvolution revealed that clofazimine selectively blocked the Kv1.3 channel activity, perturbing the oscillation frequency of the calcium-release activated calcium channel, which in turn led to the inhibition of the calcineurin-NFAT signaling pathway. These effects of clofazimine provide the first line of experimental evidence in support of a causal relationship between Kv1.3 and calcium oscillation in human T cells. Furthermore, clofazimine was found to be effective in blocking human T cell-mediated skin graft rejection in an animal model in vivo. Together, these results suggest that clofazimine is a promising immunomodulatory drug candidate for treating a variety of autoimmune disorders