Digital evidence, 'absence' of data and ambiguous patterns of reasoning

In this paper we discuss the use of digital data by the Swiss Federal Criminal Court in a recent case of attempted homicide. We use this case to examine drawbacks for the defense when the presentation of scientific evidence is partial, especially when the only perspective mentioned is that of the prosecution. We tackle this discussion at two distinct levels. First, we pursue an essentially non-technical presentation of the topic by drawing parallels between the court's summing up of the case and flawed patterns of reasoning commonly seen in other forensic disciplines, such as DNA and particle traces (e.g., gunshot residues). Then, we propose a formal analysis of the case, using elements of probability and graphical probability models, to justify our main claim that the partial presentation of digital evidence poses a risk to the administration of justice in that it keeps vital information from the defense. We will argue that such practice constitutes a violation of general principles of forensic interpretation as established by forensic science literature and current recommendations by forensic science interest groups (e.g., the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes). Finally, we posit that argument construction and analysis using formal methods can help replace digital evidence appropriately into context and thus support a sound evaluation of the evidence

Comparing modern and Pleistocene ENSO-like influences in NW Argentina using nonlinear time series analysis methods

Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26 deg S, 66 deg W) with an age of 30,000 14C years provide an archive of precipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data with present-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfall variability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause of such variability is the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal link between ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method of nonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots (CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two different processes, such as an ocean-atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Our analysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern and palaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that an ENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 14C years ago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in a previous study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain the clustering of landslides at around 30,000 14C years ago.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

DNA, statistics and the law : a cross-disciplinary approach to forensic inference

The use of results of DNA analyses in the legal process is a highly ambivalent topic. On the one hand, scientists have never been in a better position to analyse biological matter of various natures, even in limited quantities and degraded conditions. On the other hand, the increasing amounts of scientific data that can be gen-erated through modern analytical processes do not necessarily imply that evaluative questions that arise in the legal context are given more satisfactory answers. A fundamental question that has accompanied DNA analyses since the early days of their use in the legal process thus remains: how do we handle the challenges presented to us by the use of contemporary scientific and tech-nological developments in the field of law? Under the general theme “DNA, statistics and the law, ” the collection of articles in this Frontiers Research Topic pursues the goal of investigating this question from an interdisciplinary perspective, and with a

Les nouvelles lignes directrices du European Network of Forensic Sciences Institut en matière d’évaluation et de communication des résultats d’analyses et d’expertises scientifiques

Au printemps 2015, le European Network of Forensic Science Institutes a publié des lignes directrices visant à unifier les méthodes de travail des scientifiques agissant comme auxiliaires de la justice, plus précisément l’évaluation des résultats d’analyses scientifiques (logique du raisonnement) et la communication de ces résultats aux magistrats. Cette contribution a pour but d’expliciter ces lignes directrices et d’expliquer en quoi il est primordial que la justice suisse les adopte. — Im Frühjahr 2015 publizierte das ENFSI (European Network of Forensic Science Institutes) Leitlinien für die Vereinheitlichung wissenschaftlicher Arbeitsmethoden, insbesondere für Bewertung von wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungsergebnissen (Logik der Befundbewertung) und die Berichterstattung zuhanden der Justiz. Dieser Beitrag erläutert diese Richtlinien und erklärt, weshalb es wichtig ist, dass sie in die Schweizer Justizpraxis Eingang finden

Tumor-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells Use Distinct Mechanisms to Block the Activity of Natural Killer Cell Subsets.

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) display pleiotropic functions, which include secretion of soluble factors with immunosuppressive activity implicated in cancer progression. We compared the immunomodulatory effects on natural killer (NK) cells of paired intratumor (T)- and adjacent non-tumor tissue (N)-derived MSCs from patients with squamous cell lung carcinoma (SCC). We observed that T-MSCs were more strongly immunosuppressive than N-MSCs and affected both NK function and phenotype, as defined by CD56 expression. T-MSCs shifted NK cells toward the CD56 <sup>dim</sup> phenotype and differentially modulated CD56 <sup>bright/dim</sup> subset functions. Whereas MSCs affected both degranulation and activating receptor expression in the CD56 <sup>dim</sup> subset, they primarily inhibited interferon-γ production in the CD56 <sup>bright</sup> subset. Pharmacological inhibition of prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) synthesis and, in some MSCs, interleukin-6 (IL-6) activity restored NK function, whereas NK cell stimulation by PGE2 alone mimicked T-MSC-mediated immunosuppression. Our observations provide insight into how stromal responses to cancer dampen NK cell activity in human lung SCC

Asteroseismology of the Beta Cephei star 12 (DD) Lacertae: photometric observations, pulsational frequency analysis and mode identification

We report a multisite photometric campaign for the Beta Cephei star 12 Lacertae. 750 hours of high-quality differential photoelectric Stromgren, Johnson and Geneva time-series photometry were obtained with 9 telescopes during 190 nights. Our frequency analysis results in the detection of 23 sinusoidal signals in the light curves. Eleven of those correspond to independent pulsation modes, and the remainder are combination frequencies. We find some slow aperiodic variability such as that seemingly present in several Beta Cephei stars. We perform mode identification from our colour photometry, derive the spherical degree l for the five strongest modes unambiguously and provide constraints on l for the weaker modes. We find a mixture of modes of 0 <= l <= 4. In particular, we prove that the previously suspected rotationally split triplet within the modes of 12 Lac consists of modes of different l; their equal frequency splitting must thus be accidental. One of the periodic signals we detected in the light curves is argued to be a linearly stable mode excited to visible amplitude by nonlinear mode coupling via a 2:1 resonance. We also find a low-frequency signal in the light variations whose physical nature is unclear; it could be a parent or daughter mode resonantly coupled. The remaining combination frequencies are consistent with simple light-curve distortions. The range of excited pulsation frequencies of 12 Lac may be sufficiently large that it cannot be reproduced by standard models. We suspect that the star has a larger metal abundance in the pulsational driving zone, a hypothesis also capable of explaining the presence of Beta Cephei stars in the LMC.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, MNRAS, in pres

A new look at the pulsating DB white dwarf GD 358:Line-of-sight velocity measurements and constraints on model atmospheres

We report on our findings of the bright, pulsating, helium atmosphere white dwarf GD 358, based on time-resolved optical spectrophotometry. We identify 5 real pulsation modes and at least 6 combination modes at frequencies consistent with those found in previous observations. The measured Doppler shifts from our spectra show variations with amplitudes of up to 5.5 km/s at the frequencies inferred from the flux variations. We conclude that these are variations in the line-of-sight velocities associated with the pulsational motion. We use the observed flux and velocity amplitudes and phases to test theoretical predictions within the convective driving framework, and compare these with similar observations of the hydrogen atmosphere white dwarf pulsators (DAVs). The wavelength dependence of the fractional pulsation amplitudes (chromatic amplitudes) allows us to conclude that all five real modes share the same spherical degree, most likely, l=1. This is consistent with previous identifications based solely on photometry. We find that a high signal-to-noise mean spectrum on its own is not enough to determine the atmospheric parameters and that there are small but significant discrepancies between the observations and model atmospheres. The source of these remains to be identified. While we infer T_eff=24kK and log g~8.0 from the mean spectrum, the chromatic amplitudes, which are a measure of the derivative of the flux with respect to the temperature, unambiguously favour a higher effective temperature, 27kK, which is more in line with independent determinations from ultra-violet spectra.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures; accepted for publication in A&

The pulsating DA white dwarf star EC 14012-1446: results from four epochs of time-resolved photometry

The pulsating DA white dwarfs are the coolest degenerate stars that undergo self-driven oscillations. Understanding their interior structure will help to understand the previous evolution of the star. To this end, we report the analysis of more than 200 h of time-resolved CCD photometry of the pulsating DA white dwarf star EC 14012-1446 acquired during four observing epochs in three different years, including a coordinated three-site campaign. A total of 19 independent frequencies in the star's light variations together with 148 combination signals up to fifth order could be detected. We are unable to obtain the period spacing of the normal modes and therefore a mass estimate of the star, but we infer a fairly short rotation period of 0.61 +/- 0.03 d, assuming the rotationally split modes are l=1. The pulsation modes of the star undergo amplitude and frequency variations, in the sense that modes with higher radial overtone show more pronounced variability and that amplitude changes are always accompanied by frequency variations. Most of the second-order combination frequencies detected have amplitudes that are a function of their parent mode amplitudes, but we found a few cases of possible resonantly excited modes. We point out the complications in the analysis and interpretation of data sets of pulsating white dwarfs that are affected by combination frequencies of the form f_A+f_B-f_C intruding into the frequency range of the independent modes.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables. MNRAS, in pres