The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Oxygen isotopic evidence for high‐magnitude, abrupt climatic events during the Lateglacial Interstadial in north‐west Europe:analysis of a lacustrine sequence from the site of Tirinie, Scottish Highlands

The Last Glacial to Interglacial Transition (LGIT) is a period of climatic instability. δ18O records are ideal for investigating the LGIT as this proxy responds rapidly to even minor climatic oscillations. Lacustrine carbonates offer the opportunity to investigate spatial diversity in patterns of climatic change during the LGIT but this requires the generation of δ18O records from a range of latitudinal and longitudinal settings. This study presents a coupled pollen and stable isotopic study of lacustrine carbonates spanning the Windermere Interstadial (the British equivalent of Greenland Interstadial 1, the Lateglacial Interstadial) from the site of Tirinie in the Scottish Highlands, a region where δ18O records are absent. The Interstadial is characterized by three δ18O peaks, warm intervals, and two δ18O declines, cold episodes, the timing of which is constrained by the presence of crypto-tephra. The landscape at Tirinie was highly responsive to these climatic oscillations as the sedimentary and pollen record respond to each isotopic shift. The paper concludes by highlighting that, across the British Isles, lacustrine δ18O records of the Interstadial have a consistent stratigraphy/structure, although the magnitude of the isotopic shifts is regionally variable. Potential causes of this variability are discussed

The Emergence of Consensus: a primer

The origin of population-scale coordination has puzzled philosophers and scientists for centuries. Recently, game theory, evolutionary approaches and complex systems science have provided quantitative insights on the mechanisms of social consensus. This paper overviews the main dimensions over which the debate has unfolded and discusses some representative results, with a focus on those situations in which consensus emerges `spontaneously' in absence of centralised institutions. Covered topics include the macroscopic consequences of the different microscopic rules of behavioural contagion, the role of social networks, and the mechanisms that prevent the formation of a consensus or alter it after it has emerged. Special attention is devoted to the recent wave of experiments on the emergence of consensus in social systems

Development and Initial Validation of the PEG, a Three-item Scale Assessing Pain Intensity and Interference

Inadequate pain assessment is a barrier to appropriate pain management, but single-item “pain screening” provides limited information about chronic pain. Multidimensional pain measures such as the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) are widely used in pain specialty and research settings, but are impractical for primary care. A brief and straightforward multidimensional pain measure could potentially improve initial assessment and follow-up of chronic pain in primary care. To develop an ultra-brief pain measure derived from the BPI. Development of a shortened three-item pain measure and initial assessment of its reliability, validity, and responsiveness. We used data from 1) a longitudinal study of 500 primary care patients with chronic pain and 2) a cross-sectional study of 646 veterans recruited from ambulatory care. Selected items assess average pain intensity (P), interference with enjoyment of life (E), and interference with general activity (G). Reliability of the three-item scale (PEG) was α = 0.73 and 0.89 in the two study samples. Overall, construct validity of the PEG was good for various pain-specific measures (r = 0.60–0.89 in Study 1 and r = 0.77–0.95 in Study 2), and comparable to that of the BPI. The PEG was sensitive to change and differentiated between patients with and without pain improvement at 6 months. We provide strong initial evidence for reliability, construct validity, and responsiveness of the PEG among primary care and other ambulatory clinic patients. The PEG may be a practical and useful tool to improve assessment and monitoring of chronic pain in primary care

A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula

Assessing Quality of Care of Elderly Patients Using the ACOVE Quality Indicator Set: A Systematic Review

Background: Care of the elderly is recognized as an increasingly important segment of health care. The Assessing Care Of Vulnerable Elderly (ACOVE) quality indicators (QIs) were developed to assess and improve the care of elderly patients. Objectives: The purpose of this review is to summarize studies that assess the quality of care using QIs from or based on ACOVE, in order to evaluate the state of quality of care for the reported conditions. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL for English-language studies indexed by February 2010. Articles were included if they used any ACOVE QIs, or adaptations thereof, for assessing the quality of care. Included studies were analyzed and relevant information was extracted. We summarized the results of these studies, and when possible generated an overall conclusion about the quality of care as measured by ACOVE for each condition, in various settings, and for each QI. Results: Seventeen studies were included with 278 QIs (original, adapted or newly developed). The quality scores showed large variation between and within conditions. Only a few conditions showed a stable pass rate range over multiple studies. Overall, pass rates for dementia (interquartile range (IQR): 11%-35%), depression (IQR: 27%-41%), osteoporosis (IQR: 34%-43%) and osteoarthritis (IQR: 29-41%) were notably low. Medication management and use (range: 81%-90%), hearing loss (77%-79%) and continuity of care (76%-80%) scored higher than other conditions. Out of the 278 QIs, 141 (50%) had mean pass rates below 50% and 121 QIs (44%) had pass rates above 50%. Twenty-three percent of the QIs scored above 75%, and 16% scored below 25%. Conclusions: Quality of care per condition varies markedly across studies. Although there has been much effort in improving the care for elderly patients in the last years, the reported quality of care according to the ACOVE indicators is still relatively lo

Facial duplication: Case, review, and embryogenesis

The craniofacial anatomy of an infant with facial duplication is described. There were four eyes, two noses, two maxillae, and one mandible. Anterior to the single pituitary the brain was duplicated and there was bilateral arhinencephaly. Portions of the brain were extruded into a large frontal encephalocele. Cases of symmetrical facial duplication reported in the literature range from two complete faces on a single head (diprosopus) to simple nasal duplication. The variety of patterns of duplication suggests that the doubling of facial components arises in several different ways: Forking of the notochord, duplication of the prosencephalon, duplication of the olfactory placodes, and duplication of maxillary and/or mandibular growth centers around the margins of the stomatodeal plate. Among reported cases, the female:male ratio is 2:1.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/38153/1/1420250205_ftp.pd

Systematic review: Effects, design choices, and context of pay-for-performance in health care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pay-for-performance (P4P) is one of the primary tools used to support healthcare delivery reform. Substantial heterogeneity exists in the development and implementation of P4P in health care and its effects. This paper summarizes evidence, obtained from studies published between January 1990 and July 2009, concerning P4P effects, as well as evidence on the impact of design choices and contextual mediators on these effects. Effect domains include clinical effectiveness, access and equity, coordination and continuity, patient-centeredness, and cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The systematic review made use of electronic database searching, reference screening, forward citation tracking and expert consultation. The following databases were searched: Cochrane Library, EconLit, Embase, Medline, PsychINFO, and Web of Science. Studies that evaluate P4P effects in primary care or acute hospital care medicine were included. Papers concerning other target groups or settings, having no empirical evaluation design or not complying with the P4P definition were excluded. According to study design nine validated quality appraisal tools and reporting statements were applied. Data were extracted and summarized into evidence tables independently by two reviewers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred twenty-eight evaluation studies provide a large body of evidence -to be interpreted with caution- concerning the effects of P4P on clinical effectiveness and equity of care. However, less evidence on the impact on coordination, continuity, patient-centeredness and cost-effectiveness was found. P4P effects can be judged to be encouraging or disappointing, depending on the primary mission of the P4P program: supporting minimal quality standards and/or boosting quality improvement. Moreover, the effects of P4P interventions varied according to design choices and characteristics of the context in which it was introduced.</p> <p>Future P4P programs should (1) select and define P4P targets on the basis of baseline room for improvement, (2) make use of process and (intermediary) outcome indicators as target measures, (3) involve stakeholders and communicate information about the programs thoroughly and directly, (4) implement a uniform P4P design across payers, (5) focus on both quality improvement and achievement, and (6) distribute incentives to the individual and/or team level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>P4P programs result in the full spectrum of possible effects for specific targets, from absent or negligible to strongly beneficial. Based on the evidence the review has provided further indications on how effect findings are likely to relate to P4P design choices and context. The provided best practice hypotheses should be tested in future research.</p