A Troika of Agitators: Three Comintern Liaison Agents in Australia, 1920-22

Peter Simonoff, Consul-General in Australia for the Bolshevik regime from early 1918 to mid-1921, is known to have played an active role in the founding of the Communist Party of Australia in 1920, and in promoting the "Trades Hall" faction against the ASP faction when the new party divided. Paul Freeman and Alexander Zuzenko, both deported from Australia in 1919, made return visits to Australia from Moscow in 1921 and 1922 to carry the process further. Freeman, however, backed the ASP faction, while Zuzenko lent his support to "Trades Hall". This paper uses previously unknown reports to the Comintern's Executive Committee (ECCI) from Simonoff, Freeman and Zuzenko, as well as Australian sources, to study the relations between these men and their mutually contradictory actions

A Tractable State-Space Model for Symmetric Positive-Definite Matrices

Bayesian analysis of state-space models includes computing the posterior distribution of the system's parameters as well as filtering, smoothing, and predicting the system's latent states. When the latent states wander around $\mathbb{R}^n$ there are several well-known modeling components and computational tools that may be profitably combined to achieve these tasks. However, there are scenarios, like tracking an object in a video or tracking a covariance matrix of financial assets returns, when the latent states are restricted to a curve within $\mathbb{R}^n$ and these models and tools do not immediately apply. Within this constrained setting, most work has focused on filtering and less attention has been paid to the other aspects of Bayesian state-space inference, which tend to be more challenging. To that end, we present a state-space model whose latent states take values on the manifold of symmetric positive-definite matrices and for which one may easily compute the posterior distribution of the latent states and the system's parameters, in addition to filtered distributions and one-step ahead predictions. Deploying the model within the context of finance, we show how one can use realized covariance matrices as data to predict latent time-varying covariance matrices. This approach out-performs factor stochastic volatility.Comment: 22 pages: 16 pages main manuscript, 4 pages appendix, 2 pages reference

Assessing community values for reducing agricultural emissions to improve water quality and protect coral health in the Great Barrier Reef

Key policy issues relating to protection of the Great Barrier Reef from pollutants generated by agriculture are to identify when measures to improve water quality generate benefits to society that outweigh the costs of reducing pollutants. The research reported in this paper makes a key contribution in several key ways. First, it uses the improved science understanding about the links between management changes and reef health to bring together the analysis of costs and benefits of marginal changes, helping to demonstrate the appropriate way of addressing policy questions relating to reef protection. Second, it uses the scientific relationships to frame a choice experiment to value the benefits of improved reef health, and links improvements explicitly to changes in ‘water quality units’. Third, the research demonstrates how protection values are consistent across a broader population, with some limited evidence of distance effects. Fourth, the information on marginal costs and benefits that are reported provide policy makers with key information to help improve management decisions. The results indicate that while there is potential for water quality improvements to generate net benefits, high cost water quality improvements are generally uneconomic. One implication for policy makers is that cost thresholds for key pollutants should be set to avoid more expensive water quality proposals being selectedEnvironmental Economics and Policy,

Comparing Responses from Internet and Paper-Based Collection Methods in more Complex Stated Preference Environmental Valuation Surveys

Internet surveys are becoming an increasing popular survey collection method because collection times are quicker and survey costs are lower than other collection techniques. Many studies have been conducted overseas to compare the effects of survey collection modes with results still remaining inconsistent. Fewer studies have compared collection methods for nonmarket valuation surveys, particularly for the more complex stated preference, choice modelling surveys. In this study, a comparison of internet and paper-based surveys is made to determine if the results for overseas studies can be replicated in Australia. The valuation exercise was to elicit values from Brisbane respondents for future improvements in the environmental condition of the Great Barrier Reef. The results indicate that there were some socio-demographic and attitudinal differences between the two samples and the models developed to explain the influence on choice selection were also significantly different. However, no differences in value estimates were found in the final results; household willingness to pay for an improvement in the condition of the GBR was equivalent across collection methods.collection method, drop-off/pick-up, nonmarket valuation, choice modelling experiment

Comparing responses from web and paper-based collection modes in a choice modelling experiment

Comparing responses from web and paper-based collection modes in a choice modelling experimentweb-based surveys, internet surveys, paper-based surveys, stated preference, collection mode, choice experiments, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Assessing national values to protect the health of the Great Barrier Reef

The aim of this study was to estimate the values to protect the health of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) at the national level and to examine the effects of distance decay on valuation estimates. A split-sample choice-modelling experiment was conducted in six locations: a regional town within the GBR catchment area (Townsville); Brisbane, the state capital approximately 450 km from the southern limit of the GBR; and four other capital cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth) ranging from nearly 1,000 km to over 4,000 km from Brisbane. The results suggest that the average WTP across Australian households is $21.68 per household per annum for five years. There was some evidence of distance decay in values. Most decline occurred once outside the home state, and little further decline once away from the east coast. There was no evidence to suggest any difference in patterns of use and non-use values. The values of the potential future users were most influential in determining WTP estimates.Distance decay, Iconic resources, Choice modelling experiment, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q51, Q57,

Testing for differences in benefit transfer values between state and regional frameworks

Policy makers are often interested in transferring non-market estimates of environmental values from a ‘source’ study to predict economic values at a ‘target’ site. While most applications of the benefit transfer process involve an opportunistic search for suitable source studies, there are some examples available of more systematic approaches to developing a framework of values for benefit transfer processes. A key issue in developing such a framework is to deal with adjustment factors, where value estimates might vary systematically according to the context of the trade-offs. Previous research has identified that large differences in scope, such as between national and regional contexts, do affect values and hence benefit transfer. The research reported in this paper indicates that such differences are not significant for smaller scope variations, such as between state and regional contexts. These results provide some promise that systematic databases for benefit transfer can be developed.benefit transfer, choice modelling, environmental valuation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Assessing community values for reducing agricultural emissions to improve water quality and protect coral health in the Great Barrier Reef

Key policy issues relating to protection of the Great Barrier Reef from pollutants generated by agriculture are to identify when measures to improve water quality generate benefits to society that outweigh the costs of reducing pollutants. The research reported in this paper makes a key contribution in several key ways. First, it uses the improved science understanding about the links between management changes and reef health to bring together the analysis of costs and benefits of marginal changes, helping to demonstrate the appropriate way of addressing policy questions relating to reef protection. Second, it uses the scientific relationships to frame a choice experiment to value the benefits of improved reef health, and links improvements explicitly to changes in ‘water quality units’. Third, the research demonstrates how protection values are consistent across a broader population, with some limited evidence of distance effects. Fourth, the information on marginal costs and benefits that are reported provide policy makers with key information to help improve management decisions. The results indicate that while there is potential for water quality improvements to generate net benefits, high cost water quality improvements are generally uneconomic. One implication for policy makers is that cost thresholds for key pollutants should be set to avoid more expensive water quality proposals being selected.Choice modelling experiment, attribute definition, input output definition, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q. 15, Q51, Q57,

Using group therapy to support eating disordered mothers with their children: the relevance for primary care

Eating disorders are a crippling and disabling condition. If they become chronic, the emotional, physical and social effects are substantial. The death rate is the highest of all psychiatric illnesses so the need to find prevention strategies is urgent. This research project has three aims, primary prevention of an eating disorder for the child, helping the mother recover and developing a protocol for a group to be used in primary care. Children of mothers with an eating disorder, are a proven ‘at risk’ group, because children model and internalize their experiences. This project was carried out in a community setting, targeting mothers with an eating disorder who had children under the age of 13. It was argued that if these mothers can be encouraged to change the dysfunctional behaviour they may be passing on to their children, an attempt can be made to break the cycle. This qualitative research pilot project utilized semi-structured interviews before and after 11 weeks of group therapy, with three- and six-month follow-ups. Although the sample was small, the results showed that a group allowed these mothers a safe space for reflection, enabling them to become aware of their behaviour. As a result the mothers implemented changes in response to their children's needs, encouraging healthier development. The pilot was a precursor for a larger study to be carried out and developed within the primary care network