Egalitarian justice and expected value

According to all-luck egalitarianism, the differential distributive effects of both brute luck, which defines the outcome of risks which are not deliberately taken, and option luck, which defines the outcome of deliberate gambles, are unjust. Exactly how to correct the effects of option luck is, however, a complex issue. This article argues that (a) option luck should be neutralized not just by correcting luck among gamblers, but among the community as a whole, because it would be unfair for gamblers as a group to be disadvantaged relative to non-gamblers by bad option luck; (b) individuals should receive the warranted expected results of their gambles, except insofar as individuals blamelessly lacked the ability to ascertain which expectations were warranted; and (c) where societal resources are insufficient to deliver expected results to gamblers, gamblers should receive a lesser distributive share which is in proportion to the expected results. Where all-luck egalitarianism is understood in this way, it allows risk-takers to impose externalities on non-risk-takers, which seems counterintuitive. This may, however, be an advantage as it provides a luck egalitarian rationale for assisting ‘negligent victims’

The Metabochip, a Custom Genotyping Array for Genetic Studies of Metabolic, Cardiovascular, and Anthropometric Traits

PMCID: PMC3410907This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder

We discover a qualitatively new behavior for systems where the load transfer has limiting stress amplification as in real fiber composites. We find that the disorder is a relevant field leading to tri--criticality, separating a first-order regime where rupture occurs without significant precursors from a second-order regime where the macroscopic elastic coefficient exhibit power law behavior. Our results are based on analytical analysis of fiber bundle models and numerical simulations of a two-dimensional tensorial spring-block system in which stick-slip motion and fracture compete.Comment: Revtex, 10 pages, 4 figures available upon reques

Is the thrifty genotype hypothesis supported by evidence based on confirmed type 2 diabetes- and obesity-susceptibility variants?

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: According to the thrifty genotype hypothesis, the high prevalence of type 2 diabetes and obesity is a consequence of genetic variants that have undergone positive selection during historical periods of erratic food supply. The recent expansion in the number of validated type 2 diabetes- and obesity-susceptibility loci, coupled with access to empirical data, enables us to look for evidence in support (or otherwise) of the thrifty genotype hypothesis using proven loci. METHODS: We employed a range of tests to obtain complementary views of the evidence for selection: we determined whether the risk allele at associated 'index' single-nucleotide polymorphisms is derived or ancestral, calculated the integrated haplotype score (iHS) and assessed the population differentiation statistic fixation index (F (ST)) for 17 type 2 diabetes and 13 obesity loci. RESULTS: We found no evidence for significant differences for the derived/ancestral allele test. None of the studied loci showed strong evidence for selection based on the iHS score. We find a high F (ST) for rs7901695 at TCF7L2, the largest type 2 diabetes effect size found to date. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results provide some evidence for selection at specific loci, but there are no consistent patterns of selection that provide conclusive confirmation of the thrifty genotype hypothesis. Discovery of more signals and more causal variants for type 2 diabetes and obesity is likely to allow more detailed examination of these issues

Insulin resistance in type 1 diabetes: what is ‘double diabetes’ and what are the risks?

In this review, we explore the concept of ‘double diabetes’, a combination of type 1 diabetes with features of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. After considering whether double diabetes is a useful concept, we discuss potential mechanisms of increased insulin resistance in type 1 diabetes before examining the extent to which double diabetes might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We then go on to consider the proposal that weight gain from intensive insulin regimens may be associated with increased CV risk factors in some patients with type 1 diabetes, and explore the complex relationships between weight gain, insulin resistance, glycaemic control and CV outcome. Important comparisons and contrasts between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes are highlighted in terms of hepatic fat, fat partitioning and lipid profile, and how these may differ between type 1 diabetic patients with and without double diabetes. In so doing, we hope this work will stimulate much-needed research in this area and an improvement in clinical practice

Submarine record of volcanic island construction and collapse in the Lesser Antilles arc: First scientific drilling of submarine volcanic island landslides by IODP Expedition 340

IODP Expedition 340 successfully drilled a series of sites offshore Montserrat, Martinique and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles from March to April 2012. These are among the few drill sites gathered around volcanic islands, and the first scientific drilling of large and likely tsunamigenic volcanic island-arc landslide deposits. These cores provide evidence and tests of previous hypotheses for the composition and origin of those deposits. Sites U1394, U1399, and U1400 that penetrated landslide deposits recovered exclusively seafloor-sediment, comprising mainly turbidites and hemipelagic deposits, and lacked debris avalanche deposits. This supports the concepts that i/ volcanic debris avalanches tend to stop at the slope break, and ii/ widespread and voluminous failures of pre-existing low-gradient seafloor sediment can be triggered by initial emplacement of material from the volcano. Offshore Martinique (U1399 and 1400), the landslide deposits comprised blocks of parallel strata that were tilted or micro-faulted, sometimes separated by intervals of homogenized sediment (intense shearing), while Site U1394 offshore Montserrat penetrated a flat-lying block of intact strata. The most likely mechanism for generating these large-scale seafloor-sediment failures appears to be propagation of a decollement from proximal areas loaded and incised by a volcanic debris avalanche. These results have implications for the magnitude of tsunami generation. Under some conditions, volcanic island landslide deposits comprised of mainly seafloor sediment will tend to form smaller magnitude tsunamis than equivalent volumes of subaerial block-rich mass flows rapidly entering water. Expedition 340 also successfully drilled sites to access the undisturbed record of eruption fallout layers intercalated with marine sediment which provide an outstanding high-resolution dataset to analyze eruption and landslides cycles, improve understanding of magmatic evolution as well as offshore sedimentation processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Mendelian randomization study of B-type natriuretic peptide and type 2 diabetes: evidence of causal association from population studies

<p>Background: Genetic and epidemiological evidence suggests an inverse association between B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in blood and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the prospective association of BNP with T2D is uncertain, and it is unclear whether the association is confounded.</p> <p>Methods and Findings: We analysed the association between levels of the N-terminal fragment of pro-BNP (NT-pro-BNP) in blood and risk of incident T2D in a prospective case-cohort study and genotyped the variant rs198389 within the BNP locus in three T2D case-control studies. We combined our results with existing data in a meta-analysis of 11 case-control studies. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we compared the observed association between rs198389 and T2D to that expected from the NT-pro-BNP level to T2D association and the NT-pro-BNP difference per C allele of rs198389. In participants of our case-cohort study who were free of T2D and cardiovascular disease at baseline, we observed a 21% (95% CI 3%-36%) decreased risk of incident T2D per one standard deviation (SD) higher log-transformed NT-pro-BNP levels in analysis adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking, family history of T2D, history of hypertension, and levels of triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The association between rs198389 and T2D observed in case-control studies (odds ratio = 0.94 per C allele, 95% CI 0.91-0.97) was similar to that expected (0.96, 0.93-0.98) based on the pooled estimate for the log-NT-pro-BNP level to T2D association derived from a meta-analysis of our study and published data (hazard ratio = 0.82 per SD, 0.74-0.90) and the difference in NT-pro-BNP levels (0.22 SD, 0.15-0.29) per C allele of rs198389. No significant associations were observed between the rs198389 genotype and potential confounders.</p> <p>Conclusions: Our results provide evidence for a potential causal role of the BNP system in the aetiology of T2D. Further studies are needed to investigate the mechanisms underlying this association and possibilities for preventive interventions.</p&gt

Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page