Adaptive constraints for feature tracking

In this paper extensions to an existing tracking algorithm are described. These extensions implement adaptive tracking constraints in the form of regional upper-bound displacements and an adaptive track smoothness constraint. Together, these constraints make the tracking algorithm more flexible than the original algorithm (which used fixed tracking parameters) and provide greater confidence in the tracking results. The result of applying the new algorithm to high-resolution ECMWF reanalysis data is shown as an example of its effectiveness

On the treatment of soil water stress in GCM simulations of vegetation physiology

Current land surface schemes in weather and climate models make use of the so-called coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models of plant function to determine the surface fluxes that govern the terrestrial energy, water and carbon budgets. Plant physiology is controlled by many environmental factors, and a number of complex feedbacks are involved, but soil moisture control on root water uptake is primary, particularly in sub-tropical to temperate ecosystems. Land surface models (LSMs) represent plant water stress in different ways, but most implement a water stress factor, beta, which ranges linearly (more recently also curvilinearly) between beta =1 for unstressed vegetation and beta = 0 at the wilting point, expressed in terms of volumetric water content ("θ" ). beta is most commonly used to either limit A or gs, and hence carbon and water fluxes, and a pertinent research question is whether these treatments are in fact interchangeable. Following Egea et al. (2011) and Verhoef and Egea (2014), we have implemented new beta treatments, reflecting higher levels of biophysical complexity in a state-of-the-art LSM, JULES, by allowing root zone soil moisture to limit plant function non-linearly and via individual routes (carbon assimilation, stomatal conductance, or mesophyll conductance) as well as any (non-linear) combinations thereof. The treatment of beta does matter to the prediction of water and carbon fluxes: this study demonstrates that it represents a key structural uncertainty in contemporary LSMs, in terms of predictions of GPP, energy fluxes and soil moisture evolution, both in terms of climate means and response to a number of European droughts, including the 2003 heat wave. Treatments allowing beta to act on vegetation fluxes via stomatal and mesophyll routes are able to simulate the spatiotemporal variability in water use efficiency with higher fidelity during the growing season; they also support a broader range of ecosystem responses, e.g. those observed in regions that are radiation limited or water limited. We conclude that current practice in weather and climate modelling is inconsistent, as well as too simplistic, failing to credibly simulate vegetation response to soil water stress across the typical range of variability that is encountered for current European weather and climate conditions, including extremes of land surface temperature and soil moisture drought. A generalized approach performs better in current climate conditions and promises to be, based on responses to recently observed extremes, more trustworthy for predicting the impacts of climate change

The benefits of global high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale

A perspective on current and future capabilities in global high-resolution climate simulation for assessing climate risks over next few decades, including advances in process representation and analysis, justifying the emergence of dedicated, coordinated experimental protocols. The timescales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short timescales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal timescales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such timescales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability, as well as the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modelling capability to address these requirements - specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous IPCC and CMIP exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example, because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g. flooding, drought, tropical and mid-latitude storms)

Elasticity of iron at the temperature of the Earth's inner core

Seismological body-wave(1) and free-oscillation(2) studies of the Earth's solid inner core have revealed that compressional waves traverse the inner core faster along near-polar paths than in the equatorial plane. Studies have also documented local deviations from this first-order pattern of anisotropy on length scales ranging from 1 to 1,000 km (refs 3, 4). These observations, together with reports of the differential rotation(5) of the inner core, have generated considerable interest in the physical state and dynamics of the inner core, and in the structure and elasticity of its main constituent, iron, at appropriate conditions of pressure and temperature. Here we report first-principles calculations of the structure and elasticity of dense hexagonal close-packed (h.c.p.) iron at high temperatures. We find that the axial ratio c/a of h.c.p. iron increases substantially with increasing temperature, reaching a value of nearly 1.7 at a temperature of 5,700 K, where aggregate bulk and shear moduli match those of the inner core. As a consequence of the increasing c/a ratio, we have found that the single-crystal longitudinal anisotropy of h.c.p. iron at high temperature has the opposite sense from that at low temperature(6,7). By combining our results with a simple model of polycrystalline texture in the inner core, in which basal planes are partially aligned with the rotation axis, we can account for seismological observations of inner-core anisotropy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62959/1/413057a0.pd

The contribution of tropical cyclones to the atmospheric branch of Middle America's hydrological cycle using observed and reanalysis tracks

Middle America is affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) from the Eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic Oceans. We characterize the regional climatology (1998-2016) of the TC contributions to the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle, from May to December. TC contributions to rainfall are quantified using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product 3B42 and TC tracks derived from three sources: the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), and an objective feature tracking method applied to the Japanese 55-year and ERA-Interim reanalyses. From July to October, TCs contribute 10-30% of rainfall over the west and east coast of Mexico and central Mexico, with the largest monthly contribution during September over the Baja California Peninsula (up to 90%). TCs are associated with 40-60% of daily extreme rainfall (above the 95th percentile) over the coasts of Mexico. IBTrACS and reanalyses agree on TC contributions over the Atlantic Ocean but disagree over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and continent; differences over the continent are mainly attributed to discrepancies in TC tracks in proximity to the coast and TC lifetime. Reanalysis estimates of TC moisture transports show that TCs are an important moisture source for the regional water budget. TC vertically integrated moisture flux (VIMF) convergence can turn regions of weak VIMF divergence by the mean circulation into regions of weak VIMF convergence. We discuss deficiencies in the observed and reanalysis TC tracks, which limit our ability to quantify robustly the contribution of TCs to the regional hydrological cycle

Air-Sea interaction over the Gulf Stream in an ensemble of HighResMIP present climate simulations

Abstract: A dominant paradigm for mid-latitude air-sea interaction identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric “noise” as the main driver for the observed ocean surface variability. While this conceptual model successfully holds over most of the mid-latitude ocean surface, its soundness over frontal zones (including western boundary currents; WBC) characterized by intense mesoscale activity, has been questioned in a number of studies suggesting a driving role for the small scale ocean dynamics (mesoscale oceanic eddies) in the modulation of air-sea interaction. In this context, climate models provide a powerful experimental device to inspect the emerging scale-dependent nature of mid-latitude air-sea interaction. This study assesses the impact of model resolution on the representation of air-sea interaction over the Gulf Stream region, in a multi-model ensemble of present-climate simulations performed using a common experimental design. Lead-lag correlation and covariance patterns between sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux (THF) are diagnosed to identify the leading regimes of air-sea interaction in a region encompassing both the Gulf Stream system and the North Atlantic subtropical basin. Based on these statistical metrics it is found that coupled models based on “laminar” (eddy-parameterised) and eddy-permitting oceans are able to discriminate between an ocean-driven regime, dominating the region controlled by the Gulf Stream dynamics, and an atmosphere-driven regime, typical of the open ocean regions. However, the increase of model resolution leads to a better representation of SST and THF cross-covariance patterns and functional forms, and the major improvements can be largely ascribed to a refinement of the oceanic model component