Mapping regional impacts of agricultural expansion on terrestrial carbon storage

As a result of growing food demands, the area of land used globally for agriculture has rapidly increased over the last 300 years. Clearance of natural vegetation and conversion of land to agriculture is often associated with terrestrial carbon loss, from both vegetation and soil stores. Changes in terrestrial carbon storage has implications for food production, climate and water regulation. Quantifying these changes is therefore vital to understand the risks to and resilience of these benefits. Land use in the East of England has significantly changed during this period and is now predominantly used for agriculture, specifically arable use. In order to map changes to terrestrial carbon storage in this region since 1700, we apply a plant–soil system biogeochemistry model, N14CP. The model indicates carbon storage in the East of England has decreased by 109 Mt (−35.7%) during the study period, and whilst losses are observed in both soil and vegetation stores, vegetation losses as a result of forest clearance dominate. These findings have implications for carbon sequestration strategies; the largest carbon storage gains within the region are likely to be achieved through land-use transitions such as afforestation, rather than soil sequestration through changing arable management practices

The riparian reactive interface: a climate-sensitive gatekeeper of global nutrient cycles

Riparian zones are critical interfaces to freshwater systems, acting as gateways for the conveyance and modification of macronutrient fluxes from land to rivers and oceans. In this paper, we propose that certain riparian conditions and processes (conceptually 'Riparian Reactive Interfaces') may be susceptible to environmental change with consequences of accelerating local nutrient cycling cascading to global impacts on the cycles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). However, we argue that this concept is insufficiently understood and that research has not yet established robust baseline data to predict and measure change at the key riparian ecosystem interface. We suggest one contributing factor as lack of interdisciplinary study of abiotic and biotic processes linking C, N, and P dynamics and another being emphasis on riparian ecology and restoration that limits frameworks for handling and scaling topography-soil-water-climate physical and biogeochemical observations from plot to large catchment scales. Scientific effort is required now to evaluate riparian current and future controls on global nutrient cycles through multi-nutrient (and controlling element) studies, grounded in landscape frameworks for dynamic riparian behaviour variation, facilitating scaling to catchment predictions

The riparian reactive interface: a climate-sensitive gatekeeper of global nutrient cycles

Riparian zones are critical interfaces to freshwater systems, acting as gateways for the conveyance and modification of macronutrient fluxes from land to rivers and oceans. In this paper, we propose that certain riparian conditions and processes (conceptually ‘Riparian Reactive Interfaces’) may be susceptible to environmental change with consequences of accelerating local nutrient cycling cascading to global impacts on the cycles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). However, we argue that this concept is insufficiently understood and that research has not yet established robust baseline data to predict and measure change at the key riparian ecosystem interface. We suggest one contributing factor as lack of interdisciplinary study of abiotic and biotic processes linking C, N, and P dynamics and another being emphasis on riparian ecology and restoration that limits frameworks for handling and scaling topography–soil–water–climate physical and biogeochemical observations from plot to large catchment scales. Scientific effort is required now to evaluate riparian current and future controls on global nutrient cycles through multi-nutrient (and controlling element) studies, grounded in landscape frameworks for dynamic riparian behaviour variation, facilitating scaling to catchment predictions.</jats:p

Elevated <scp>CO₂</scp> interacts with nutrient inputs to restructure plant communities in phosphorus‐limited grasslands

AbstractGlobally pervasive increases in atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen (N) deposition could have substantial effects on plant communities, either directly or mediated by their interactions with soil nutrient limitation. While the direct consequences of N enrichment on plant communities are well documented, potential interactions with rising CO2 and globally widespread phosphorus (P) limitation remain poorly understood. We investigated the consequences of simultaneous elevated CO2 (eCO2) and N and P additions on grassland biodiversity, community and functional composition in P‐limited grasslands. We exposed soil‐turf monoliths from limestone and acidic grasslands that have received &gt;25 years of N additions (3.5 and 14 g m−2 year−1) and 11 (limestone) or 25 (acidic) years of P additions (3.5 g m−2 year−1) to eCO2 (600 ppm) for 3 years. Across both grasslands, eCO2, N and P additions significantly changed community composition. Limestone communities were more responsive to eCO2 and saw significant functional shifts resulting from eCO2–nutrient interactions. Here, legume cover tripled in response to combined eCO2 and P additions, and combined eCO2 and N treatments shifted functional dominance from grasses to sedges. We suggest that eCO2 may disproportionately benefit P acquisition by sedges by subsidising the carbon cost of locally intense root exudation at the expense of co‐occurring grasses. In contrast, the functional composition of the acidic grassland was insensitive to eCO2 and its interactions with nutrient additions. Greater diversity of P‐acquisition strategies in the limestone grassland, combined with a more functionally even and diverse community, may contribute to the stronger responses compared to the acidic grassland. Our work suggests we may see large changes in the composition and biodiversity of P‐limited grasslands in response to eCO2 and its interactions with nutrient loading, particularly where these contain a high diversity of P‐acquisition strategies or developmentally young soils with sufficient bioavailable mineral P.</jats:p

Sustainable futures over the next decade are rooted in soil science

Funding information: Dutch Knowledge Base Program; European Commission, Grant/Award Number: NEW 810; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Grant/Award Numbers: 774378, 869625; Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute, Grant/Award Number: 2019002820004; Natural Environment Research Council, Grant/Award Number: NE/R016429/1; Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas, Grant/Award Number: 2017-00608; UK Research and Innovation, Grant/Award Number: NE/P019455/1Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use

European soybean to benefit people and the environment.

Europe imports large amounts of soybean that are predominantly used for livestock feed, mainly sourced from Brazil, USA and Argentina. In addition, the demand for GM-free soybean for human consumption is project to increase. Soybean has higher protein quality and digestibility than other legumes, along with high concentrations of isoflavones, phytosterols and minerals that enhance the nutritional value as a human food ingredient. Here, we examine the potential to increase soybean production across Europe for livestock feed and direct human consumption, and review possible effects on the environment and human health. Simulations and field data indicate rainfed soybean yields of 3.1 ± 1.2 t ha-1 from southern UK through to southern Europe (compared to a 3.5 t ha-1 average from North America). Drought-prone southern regions and cooler northern regions require breeding to incorporate stress-tolerance traits. Literature synthesized in this work evidenced soybean properties important to human nutrition, health, and traits related to food processing compared to alternative protein sources. While acknowledging the uncertainties inherent in any modelling exercise, our findings suggest that further integrating soybean into European agriculture could reduce GHG emissions by 37-291 Mt CO2e year-1 and fertiliser N use by 0.6-1.2 Mt year-1, concurrently improving human health and nutrition

Simulating long-term carbon nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemical cycling in agricultural environments

Understanding how agricultural practices alter biogeochemical cycles is vital for maintaining land productivity, food security, and other ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. However, these are complex, highly coupled long-term processes that are difficult to observe or explore through empirical science alone. Models are required that capture the main anthropogenic disturbances, whilst operating across regions and long timescales, simulating both natural and agricultural environments, and shifts among these. Many biogeochemical models neglect agriculture or interactions between carbon and nutrient cycles, which is surprising given the scale of intervention in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles introduced by agriculture. This gap is addressed here, using a plant-soil model that simulates integrated soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus (CNP) cycling across natural, semi-natural and agricultural environments. The model is rigorously tested both spatially and temporally using data from long-term agricultural experiments across temperate environments. The model proved capable of reproducing the magnitude of and trends in soil nutrient stocks, and yield responses to nutrient addition. The model has potential to simulate anthropogenic effects on biogeochemical cycles across northern Europe, for long timescales (centuries) without site-specific calibration, using easily accessible input data. The results demonstrate that weatherable P from parent material has a considerable effect on modern pools of soil C and N, despite significant perturbation of nutrient cycling from agricultural practices, highlighting the need to integrate both geological and agricultural processes to understand effects of land-use change on food security, C storage and nutrient sustainability. The results suggest that an important process or source of P is currently missing in our understanding of agricultural biogeochemical cycles. The model could not explain how yields were sustained in plots with low P fertiliser addition. We suggest that plant access to organic P is a key uncertainty warranting further research, particularly given sustainability concerns surrounding rock sources of P fertiliser

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome