The future burden of cancer in London compared with England.

BACKGROUND: The future burden of cancer in England is predicted to increase by 33% by 2020. Those planning health services are often interested in predictions at a local level. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer in London and compare this with estimates for England. METHODS: Predictions for London were based on cancer registration data (1985-2003) and population projections up until 2024. The number of future cases and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were projected using an age-period-cohort model developed for the analysis of cancer trends and projections in the Nordic countries. Estimates for England were taken from an earlier publication. RESULTS: In London, ASRs for all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) decreased for both sexes, whereas in England, ASRs decreased in males and increased slightly in females. In London, the number of cases for both sexes is predicted to increase from approximately 27,000 in 2002 to approximately 28,500 in 2022, an increase of 5%. In England, a greater increase is predicted, from approximately 224,000 in 2001 to approximately 299,000 in 2020, an increase of 33%. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of the future burden of cancer are particularly sensitive to demographic population trends. They are likely to be different for cities compared with rural areas or entire countries

Differences in breast cancer hormone receptor status in ethnic groups: a London population.

BACKGROUND: Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is associated with different ethnic groups in the United States (US), however this has not previously been examined in a population-based study within the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Electronic pathology reports from the North East London Cancer Network (NELCN) on women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2007 were collated. The statuses of oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor and HER-2 were extracted. Women were classified as having TNBC if all three receptor statuses were negative, and as not having TNBC if at least one receptor was positive or borderline. Logistic regression was used to quantify the association between TNBC and ethnicity, adjusting for age, year of diagnosis and socioeconomic deprivation. Overall survival in different ethnic groups was examined using Cox regression, adjusting as appropriate for age, stage of disease, triple negative status, year of diagnosis, socioeconomic deprivation and recorded treatment. RESULTS: There were 2417 women resident in NELCN diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2007, and TNBC status was determined for 1228 (51%) women. Overall, of women who had their TNBC status determined, 128 (10%) were diagnosed with TNBC. Compared with White women, Black (odds ratio [OR]=2.81, p<0.001) and South Asian (OR=1.80, p=0.044) women with breast cancer were more likely to have TNBC. Black women had a worse age-adjusted survival than White women (hazard ratio [HR]=2.05, p<0.001). This was attenuated by further adjustment for stage of disease (1.52, p=0.032) and triple negative status (1.31, p=0.175). CONCLUSION: Better methods of early detection may need to be developed in addition to more effective systemic treatment in order to improve outcomes for women with TNBC

High procedure volume is strongly associated with improved survival after lung cancer surgery

PurposeStudies have reported an association between hospital volume and survival for non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We explored this association in England, accounting for case mix and propensity to resect.MethodsWe analyzed data on 134,293 patients with NSCLC diagnosed in England between 2004 and 2008, of whom 12,862 (9.6%) underwent surgical resection. Hospital volume was defined according to number of patients with resected lung cancer in each hospital in each year of diagnosis. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for death in three predefined periods according to hospital volume, sex, age, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidity, and propensity to resect.ResultsThere was increased survival in hospitals performing > 150 surgical resections compared with those carrying out < 70 (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.90; Ptrend < .01). The association between hospital volume and survival was present in all three periods of follow-up, but the magnitude of association was greatest in the early postoperative period.ConclusionHigh-volume hospitals have higher resection rates and perform surgery among patients who are older, have lower socioeconomic status, and have more comorbidities; despite this, they achieve better survival, most notably in the early postoperative period

Lung cancer stage-shift following a symptom awareness campaign

Background: Lung cancer outcomes in the UK are worse than in many other developed nations. Symptom awareness campaigns aim to diagnose patients at an earlier stage to improve cancer outcomes. Methods: An early diagnosis campaign for lung cancer commenced in Leeds, UK in 2011 comprising public and primary-care facing components. Rates of community referral for chest X-ray and lung cancer stage (TNM seventh edition) at presentation were collected from 2008 to 2015. Linear trends were assessed by χ2 test for trend in proportions. Headline figures are presented for the 3 years pre-campaign (2008–2010) and the three most recent years for which data are available during the campaign (2013–2015). Findings: Community-ordered chest X-ray rates per year increased from 18 909 in 2008–2010 to 34 194 in 2013–2015 (80.8% increase). A significant stage shift towards earlier stage lung cancer was seen (χ2(1)=32.2, p<0.0001). There was an 8.8 percentage point increase in the proportion of patients diagnosed with stage I/II lung cancer (26.5% pre-campaign vs 35.3% during campaign) and a 9.3% reduction in the absolute number of patients diagnosed with stage III/IV disease (1254 pre-campaign vs 1137 during campaign). Interpretation: This is the largest described lung cancer stage-shift in association with a symptom awareness campaign. A causal link between the campaign and stage-shift cannot be proven but appears plausible. Limitations of the analysis include a lack of contemporary control population

Cohort profile: prescriptions dispensed in the community linked to the national cancer registry in England.

PURPOSE: The linked prescriptions cancer registry data resource was set up to extend our understanding of the pathway for patients with cancer past secondary care into the community, to ultimately improve patient outcomes. PARTICIPANTS: The linked prescriptions cancer registry data resource is currently available for April to July 2015, for all patients diagnosed with cancer in England with a dispensed prescription in that time frame.The dispensed prescriptions data are collected by National Health Service (NHS) Prescription Services, and the cancer registry data are processed by Public Health England. All data are routine healthcare data, used for secondary purposes, linked using a pseudonymised version of the patient's NHS number and date of birth.Detailed demographic and clinical information on the type of cancer diagnosed and treatment is collected by the cancer registry. The dispensed prescriptions data contain basic demographic information, geography measures of the dispensed prescription, drug information (quantity, strength and presentation), cost of the drug and the date that the dispensed prescription was submitted to NHS Business Services Authority. FINDINGS TO DATE: Findings include a study of end of life prescribing in the community among patients with cancer, an investigation of repeat prescriptions to derive measures of prior morbidity status in patients with cancer and studies of prescription activity surrounding the date of cancer diagnosis. FUTURE PLANS: This English linked resource could be used for cancer epidemiological studies of diagnostic pathways, health outcomes and inequalities; to establish primary care comorbidity indices and for guideline concordance studies of treatment, particularly hormonal therapy, as a major treatment modality for breast and prostate cancer which has been largely delivered in the community setting for a number of years

Establishing population-based surveillance of diagnostic timeliness using linked cancer registry and administrative data for patients with colorectal and lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic timeliness in cancer patients is important for clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction but, to-date, continuous monitoring of diagnostic intervals in nationwide incident cohorts has been impossible in England. METHODS: We developed a new methodology for measuring the secondary care diagnostic interval (SCDI - first relevant secondary care contact to diagnosis) using linked cancer registration and healthcare utilisation data. Using this method, we subsequently examined diagnostic timeliness in colorectal and lung cancer patients (2014-15) by socio-demographic characteristics, diagnostic route and stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: The approach assigned SCDIs to 94.4% of all incident colorectal cancer cases [median length (90th centile) of 25 (104) days] and 95.3% of lung cancer cases [36 (144) days]. Advanced stage patients had shorter intervals (median, colorectal: stage 1 vs 4 - 34 vs 19 days; lung stage 1&2 vs 3B&4 - 70 vs 27 days). Routinely referred patients had the longest (colorectal: 61, lung: 69 days) and emergency presenters the shortest intervals (colorectal: 3, lung: 14 days). Comorbidities and additional diagnostic tests were also associated with longer intervals. CONCLUSION: This new method can enable repeatable nationwide measurement of cancer diagnostic timeliness in England and identifies actionable variation to inform early diagnosis interventions and target future research.GL is supported by a Cancer Research UK Advanced Clinician Scientist Fellowship (award C18081/A18180). GL is an associate director (co-investigator) of the multi-institutional CanTest Research Collaborative funded by a Cancer Research UK Population Research Catalyst award (C8640/A23385

Short-term breast cancer survival in relation to ethnicity, stage, grade and receptor status: national cohort study in England.

BACKGROUND: In the re-organisation of cancer registration in England in 2012, a high priority was given to the recording of cancer stage and other prognostic clinical data items. METHODS: We extracted 86 852 breast cancer records for women resident in England and diagnosed during 2012-2013. Information on age, ethnicity, socio-economic status, comorbidity, tumour stage, grade, morphology and oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptor status was included. The two-year cumulative risk of death from any cause was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The follow-up ended on 31 December 2014. RESULTS: The completeness of registration for prognostic variables was generally high (around 80% or higher), but it was low for progesterone receptor status (41%). Women with negative receptor status for each of the oestrogen, progesterone and HER2 receptors (triple-negative cancers) had an adjusted HR for death of 2.00 (95%CI 1.84-2.17). Black women had an age-adjusted HR of 1.77 (1.48-2.13) compared with White women. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality of Black women with breast cancer has contributions from socio-economic factors, stage distribution and tumour biology. The study illustrates the richness of detail in the national cancer registration data. This allows for analysis of cancer outcomes at a high level of resolution, and may form the basis for risk stratification

Investigation of the international comparability of population-based routine hospital data set derived comorbidity scores for patients with lung cancer

Introduction: The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) identified significant international differences in lung cancer survival. Differing levels of comorbid disease across ICBP countries has been suggested as a potential explanation of this variation but, to date, no studies have quantified its impact. This study investigated whether comparable, robust comorbidity scores can be derived from the different routine population-based cancer data sets available in the ICBP jurisdictions and, if so, use them to quantify international variation in comorbidity and determine its influence on outcome. Methods: Linked population-based lung cancer registry and hospital discharge data sets were acquired from nine ICBP jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Norway and the UK providing a study population of 233 981 individuals. For each person in this cohort Charlson, Elixhauser and inpatient bed day Comorbidity Scores were derived relating to the 4–36 months prior to their lung cancer diagnosis. The scores were then compared to assess their validity and feasibility of use in international survival comparisons. Results: It was feasible to generate the three comorbidity scores for each jurisdiction, which were found to have good content, face and concurrent validity. Predictive validity was limited and there was evidence that the reliability was questionable. Conclusion: The results presented here indicate that interjurisdictional comparability of recorded comorbidity was limited due to probable differences in coding and hospital admission practices in each area. Before the contribution of comorbidity on international differences in cancer survival can be investigated an internationally harmonised comorbidity index is required

The Pediatric Choroidal and Ciliary Body Melanoma Study A Survey by the European Ophthalmic Oncology Group

Purpose: To collect comprehensive data on choroidal and ciliary body melanoma (CCBM) in children and to validate hypotheses regarding pediatric CCBM: children younger than 18 years, males, and those without ciliary body involvement (CBI) have more favorable survival prognosis than young adults 18 to 24 years of age, females, and those with CBI. Design: Retrospective, multicenter observational study. Participants: Two hundred ninety-nine patients from 24 ocular oncology centers, of whom 114 were children (median age, 15.1 years; range, 2.7-17.9 years) and 185 were young adults. Methods: Data were entered through a secure website and were reviewed centrally. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. Main Outcome Measures: Proportion of females, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, cell type, and melanoma-related mortality. Results: Cumulative frequency of having CCBM diagnosed increased steadily by 0.8% per year of age between 5 and 10 years of age and, after a 6-year transition period, by 8.8% per year from age 17 years onward. Of children and young adults, 57% and 63% were female, respectively, which exceeded the expected 51% among young adults. Cell type, known for 35% of tumors, and TNM stage (I in 22% and 21%, II in 49% and 52%, III in 30% and 28%, respectively) were comparable for children and young adults. Melanoma-related survival was 97% and 90% at 5 years and 92% and 80% at 10 years for children compared with young adults, respectively (P = 0.013). Males tended to have a more favorable survival than females among children (100% vs. 85% at 10 years; P = 0.058). Increasing TNM stage was associated with poorer survival (stages I, II, and III: 100% vs. 86% vs. 76%, respectively; P = 0.0011). By multivariate analysis, being a young adult (adjusted hazard rate [HR], 2.57), a higher TNM stage (HR, 2.88 and 8.38 for stages II and III, respectively), and female gender (HR, 2.38) independently predicted less favorable survival. Ciliary body involvement and cell type were not associated with survival. Conclusions: This study confirms that children with CCBM have a more favorable survival than young adults 18 to 25 years of age, adjusting for TNM stage and gender. The association between gender and survival varies between age groups. (C) 2016 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.Peer reviewe

Incidence and survival of oesophageal and gastric cancer in England between 1998 and 2007, a population-based study

BACKGROUND: Major changes in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancers have been reported internationally. This study describes recent trends in incidence and survival of subgroups of oesophageal and gastric cancer in England between 1998 and 2007 and considers the implications for cancer services and policy. METHODS: Data on 133,804 English patients diagnosed with oesophageal and gastric cancer between 1998 and 2007 were extracted from the National Cancer Data Repository. Using information on anatomical site and tumour morphology, data were divided into six groups; upper and middle oesophagus, lower oesophagus, oesophagus with an unspecified anatomical site, cardia, non-cardia stomach, and stomach with an unspecified anatomical site. Age-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 European standard population) were calculated for each group by year of diagnosis and by socioeconomic deprivation. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: The majority of oesophageal cancers were in the lower third of the oesophagus (58%). Stomach with an unspecified anatomical site was the largest gastric cancer group (53%). The incidence of lower oesophageal cancer increased between 1998 and 2002 and remained stable thereafter. The incidence of cancer of the cardia, non-cardia stomach, and stomach with an unspecified anatomical site declined over the 10 year period. Both lower oesophageal and cardia cancers had a much higher incidence in males compared with females (M:F 4:1). The incidence was also higher in the most deprived quintiles for all six cancer groups. Survival was poor in all sub-groups with 1 year survival ranging from 14.8-40.8% and 5 year survival ranging from 3.7-15.6%. CONCLUSIONS: An increased focus on prevention and early diagnosis, especially in deprived areas and in males, is required to improve outcomes for these cancers. Improved recording of tumour site, stage and morphology and the evaluation of focused early diagnosis programmes are also needed. The poor long-term survival reinforces the need for early detection and multidisciplinary care