Surfing through the GFC : systemic risk in Australia

We provide empirical evidence on the degree of systemic risk in Australia before, during and after the Global Financial Crisis. We calculate a daily index of systemic risk from 2004 to 2013 in order to understand how real economy firms influence the outcomes for the rest of the economy. This is done via a mapping of the interconnectedness of the financial and non-financial sectors. The financial sector is in general the home to the most consistently systemically risky firms in the economy. The mining sector becomes occasionally as systemically risky as the financial sector, reflecting the importance of understanding the interrelationships between the financial sector and the real economy in monitoring systemic risks

Common Short Selling and Excess Comovement

We show that common short sold capital can explain future four-factor excess return correlation one month ahead, controlling for many pair characteristics, including similarities in size, book-to-market, and momentum. We explore the possible explanations that could give rise to this result. Contrary to the predictions of price pressure, we find that the relationship weakens significantly with stock illiquidity. Instead, consistent with the informed trading hypothesis, the relationship is stronger when short positions originate from hedge funds, from active investors, and from short sellers with high past performance. Stocks connected by common short sellers are associated with non-transitory negative cumulative abnormal returns. Finally, we show that our results can be used to obtain diversifications benefits

Venture capital, credit, and FinTech start-up formation: A cross-country study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordGrowing FinTech entrepreneurship is a recent global phenomenon. Drawing on the national innovation systems framework, we examine how countries’ venture capital (VC) and credit markets differently affect FinTech entrepreneurship across countries. We argue that with their established and globally diffused norms and practices, VC investors—but not banks—require a critical mass of FinTech entrepreneurship in a country to more positively influence FinTech entrepreneurship. Moreover, we argue that VC and credit markets are substitutes, especially in countries with more FinTech entrepreneurship. Using quantile regressions on data from 53 countries, we find support for our hypotheses

Impact of network structure and cellular response on spike time correlations

Novel experimental techniques reveal the simultaneous activity of larger and larger numbers of neurons. As a result there is increasing interest in the structure of cooperative -- or correlated -- activity in neural populations, and in the possible impact of such correlations on the neural code. A fundamental theoretical challenge is to understand how the architecture of network connectivity along with the dynamical properties of single cells shape the magnitude and timescale of correlations. We provide a general approach to this problem by extending prior techniques based on linear response theory. We consider networks of general integrate-and-fire cells with arbitrary architecture, and provide explicit expressions for the approximate cross-correlation between constituent cells. These correlations depend strongly on the operating point (input mean and variance) of the neurons, even when connectivity is fixed. Moreover, the approximations admit an expansion in powers of the matrices that describe the network architecture. This expansion can be readily interpreted in terms of paths between different cells. We apply our results to large excitatory-inhibitory networks, and demonstrate first how precise balance --- or lack thereof --- between the strengths and timescales of excitatory and inhibitory synapses is reflected in the overall correlation structure of the network. We then derive explicit expressions for the average correlation structure in randomly connected networks. These expressions help to identify the important factors that shape coordinated neural activity in such networks

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs. Two temperate Earth-mass planet candidates around Teegarden’s Star

Context.Teegarden’s Star is the brightest and one of the nearest ultra-cool dwarfs in the solar neighbourhood. For its late spectral type (M7.0 V),the star shows relatively little activity and is a prime target for near-infrared radial velocity surveys such as CARMENES.Aims.As part of the CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs, we obtained more than 200 radial-velocity measurements of Teegarden’sStar and analysed them for planetary signals.Methods.We find periodic variability in the radial velocities of Teegarden’s Star. We also studied photometric measurements to rule out stellarbrightness variations mimicking planetary signals.Results.We find evidence for two planet candidates, each with 1.1M⊕minimum mass, orbiting at periods of 4.91 and 11.4 d, respectively. Noevidence for planetary transits could be found in archival and follow-up photometry. Small photometric variability is suggestive of slow rotationand old age.Conclusions.The two planets are among the lowest-mass planets discovered so far, and they are the first Earth-mass planets around an ultra-cooldwarf for which the masses have been determined using radial velocities.We thank the referee Rodrigo Díaz for a careful review andhelpful comments. M.Z. acknowledges support from the Deutsche Forschungs-gemeinschaft under DFG RE 1664/12-1 and Research Unit FOR2544 “BluePlanets around Red Stars”, project no. RE 1664/14-1. CARMENES isan instrument for the Centro Astronómico Hispano-Alemán de Calar Alto(CAHA, Almería, Spain). CARMENES is funded by the German Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG), the Spanish Consejo Superior de InvestigacionesCientíficas (CSIC), the European Union through FEDER/ERF FICTS-2011-02 funds, and the members of the CARMENES Consortium (Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, LandessternwarteKönigstuhl, Institut de Ciències de l’Espai, Institut für Astrophysik Göttingen,Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Thüringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg,Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Hamburger Sternwarte, Centro de Astro-biología and Centro Astronómico Hispano-Alemán), with additional contribu-tions by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, the German Science Foundationthrough the Major Research Instrumentation Programme and DFG ResearchUnit FOR2544 “Blue Planets around Red Stars”, the Klaus Tschira Stiftung, thestates of Baden-Württemberg and Niedersachsen, and by the Junta de Andalucía.Based on data from the CARMENES data archive at CAB (INTA-CSIC). Thisarticle is based on observations made with the MuSCAT2 instrument, devel-oped by ABC, at Telescopio Carlos Sánchez operated on the island of Tener-ife by the IAC in the Spanish Observatorio del Teide. Data were partly col-lected with the 150-cm and 90-cm telescopes at the Sierra Nevada Observa-tory (SNO) operated by the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA-CSIC).Data were partly obtained with the MONET/South telescope of the MOnitoringNEtwork of Telescopes, funded by the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und HalbachFoundation, Essen, and operated by the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen,the McDonald Observatory of the University of Texas at Austin, and the SouthAfrican Astronomical Observatory. We acknowledge financial support from theSpanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación of the Ministerio de Ciencia, Inno-vación y Universidades and the European FEDER/ERF funds through projectsAYA2015-69350-C3-2-P, AYA2016-79425-C3-1/2/3-P, AYA2018-84089, BES-2017-080769, BES-2017-082610, ESP2015-65712-C5-5-R, ESP2016-80435-C2-1/2-R, ESP2017-87143-R, ESP2017-87676-2-2, ESP2017-87676-C5-1/2/5-R, FPU15/01476, RYC-2012-09913, the Centre of Excellence ”Severo Ochoa”and ”María de Maeztu” awards to the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (SEV-2015-0548), Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (SEV-2017-0709), and Cen-tro de Astrobiología (MDM-2017-0737), the Generalitat de Catalunya throughCERCA programme”, the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt throughgrants 50OW0204 and 50OO1501, the European Research Council through grant694513, the Italian Ministero dell’instruzione, dell’università de della ricerca andUniversità degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata through FFABR 2017 and “Mis-sion: Sustainability 2016”, the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council through grant ST/P000592/1, the Israel Science Foundation through grant848/16, the Chilean CONICYT-FONDECYT through grant 3180405, the Mexi-can CONACYT through grant CVU 448248, the JSPS KAKENHI through grantsJP18H01265 and 18H05439, and the JST PRESTO through grant JPMJPR1775

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs High-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of 324 survey stars

The CARMENES radial velocity (RV) survey is observing 324 M dwarfs to search for any orbiting planets. In this paper, we present the survey sample by publishing one CARMENES spectrum for each M dwarf. These spectra cover the wavelength range 520–1710 nm at a resolution of at least R >80 000, and we measure its RV, Hα emission, and projected rotation velocity. We present an atlas of high-resolution M-dwarf spectra and compare the spectra to atmospheric models. To quantify the RV precision that can be achieved in low-mass stars over the CARMENES wavelength range, we analyze our empirical information on the RV precision from more than 6500 observations. We compare our high-resolution M-dwarf spectra to atmospheric models where we determine the spectroscopic RV information content, Q, and signal-to-noise ratio. We find that for all M-type dwarfs, the highest RV precision can be reached in the wavelength range 700–900 nm. Observations at longer wavelengths are equally precise only at the very latest spectral types (M8 and M9). We demonstrate that in this spectroscopic range, the large amount of absorption features compensates for the intrinsic faintness of an M7 star. To reach an RV precision of 1 m s−1 in very low mass M dwarfs at longer wavelengths likely requires the use of a 10 m class telescope. For spectral types M6 and earlier, the combination of a red visual and a near-infrared spectrograph is ideal to search for low-mass planets and to distinguish between planets and stellar variability. At a 4 m class telescope, an instrument like CARMENES has the potential to push the RV precision well below the typical jitter level of 3–4 m s−1

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs High-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy of 324 survey stars

The CARMENES radial velocity (RV) survey is observing 324 M dwarfs to search for any orbiting planets. In this paper, we present the survey sample by publishing one CARMENES spectrum for each M dwarf. These spectra cover the wavelength range 520–1710 nm at a resolution of at least R >80 000, and we measure its RV, Hα emission, and projected rotation velocity. We present an atlas of high-resolution M-dwarf spectra and compare the spectra to atmospheric models. To quantify the RV precision that can be achieved in low-mass stars over the CARMENES wavelength range, we analyze our empirical information on the RV precision from more than 6500 observations. We compare our high-resolution M-dwarf spectra to atmospheric models where we determine the spectroscopic RV information content, Q, and signal-to-noise ratio. We find that for all M-type dwarfs, the highest RV precision can be reached in the wavelength range 700–900 nm. Observations at longer wavelengths are equally precise only at the very latest spectral types (M8 and M9). We demonstrate that in this spectroscopic range, the large amount of absorption features compensates for the intrinsic faintness of an M7 star. To reach an RV precision of 1 m s−1 in very low mass M dwarfs at longer wavelengths likely requires the use of a 10 m class telescope. For spectral types M6 and earlier, the combination of a red visual and a near-infrared spectrograph is ideal to search for low-mass planets and to distinguish between planets and stellar variability. At a 4 m class telescope, an instrument like CARMENES has the potential to push the RV precision well below the typical jitter level of 3–4 m s−1

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs HD147379 b: A nearby Neptune in the temperate zone of an early-M dwarf

We report on the first star discovered to host a planet detected by radial velocity (RV) observations obtained within the CARMENES survey for exoplanets around M dwarfs. HD 147379 (V = 8.9 mag, M = 0.58 ± 0.08 M⊙), a bright M0.0 V star at a distance of 10.7 pc, is found to undergo periodic RV variations with a semi-amplitude of K = 5.1 ± 0.4 m s−1 and a period of P = 86.54 ± 0.06 d. The RV signal is found in our CARMENES data, which were taken between 2016 and 2017, and is supported by HIRES/Keck observations that were obtained since 2000. The RV variations are interpreted as resulting from a planet of minimum mass mP sin i = 25 ± 2 M⊕, 1.5 times the mass of Neptune, with an orbital semi-major axis a = 0.32 au and low eccentricity (e < 0.13). HD 147379 b is orbiting inside the temperate zone around the star, where water could exist in liquid form. The RV time-series and various spectroscopic indicators show additional hints of variations at an approximate period of 21.1 d (and its first harmonic), which we attribute to the rotation period of the star.FEDER/ERF FICTS-2011-02 fundsMajor Research Instrumentation Programme and DFG Research Unit FOR2544 “Blue Planets around Red StarsEuropean Research Council (ERC-279347), Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (RE 1664/12-1, RE 2694/4-1), Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF-05A14MG3, BMBF-05A17MG3), Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO, grants AYA2015-68012-C2-2-P, AYA2016-79425-C3-1,2,3-P, AYA2015-69350-C3-2-P, AYA2014-54348-C03- 01, AYA2014-56359-P, AYA2014-54348-C3-2-R, AYA2016-79425-C3-3-P and 2013 Ramòn y Cajal program RYC-2013-14875), Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER, grant ESP2016-80435-C2-1-R, ESP2015-65712-C5- 5-R), Generalitat de Catalunya/CERCA programme, Spanish Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, programa de Formación de Profesorado Universitario (grant FPU15/01476), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (grants 50OW0204 and 50OO1501), Office of Naval Research Global (award no. N62909-15-1-2011), Mexican CONACyT grant CB-2012-183007