The interaction between conventional monetary policy and financial stability : Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK

The relationship between monetary policy and financial stability has gained importance in recent years as Central Bank policy rates neared the zero-lower bound. The need to coordinate policy choices, to expand the scope of monetary policy measures and lastly, the need to target financial stability objectives while maintaining a primary objective of financial stability, has become essential. We use an SVAR model and impulse response functions to study the impact of monetary policy shocks on three proxies for financial stability as well as a proxy for economic growth. Our main results show that the Central Bank policy rate may be used to correct asset mispricing due to the inverse relationship between the policy rate and the stock market index. The results also show that, in line with theory, the exchange rate appreciates following a positive interest rate shock. Although the impact is only statistically significant for industrial production for the case of the UK, conventional monetary policy may indeed be able to contribute to financial stability when used in conjunction with alternative policy choices.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Honing in on housing

Using a six variable SVAR model, we study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the housing market over the period between 1996:Q1 and 2019:Q4. The SVAR is repeated for two measures of fiscal policy namely, tax revenue and government spending as well as for three measures of the housing market namely, residential prices, the price-to-rent ratio and the price-to-income ratio. Our main results show that monetary policy shocks do not have an impact on residential prices however, when running our model using fiscal policy shocks instead of monetary policy shocks, the results become statistically significant. Further, our results show that the response of housing prices to fiscal policy shocks differs between Portugal and Spain. We conclude that the difference in the housing markets in these two countries can be attributed to the variation in the fiscal policy mandates adopted while the common monetary policy framework implemented by the ECB does not play a role.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The interaction between macroprudential policy and financial stability

In this paper, an index of domestic macroprudential policy tools is constructed and the effectiveness of these tools in controlling credit growth is studied using a dynamic panel data model for the period between 2000 and 2017. The empirical analysis includes two panels namely an EU panel of 27 countries and a Latin American panel of 7 countries, and the paper also looks at a case study of Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK. Our main results find that the cumulative index of macroprudential policy tools does not have a statistically significant impact on credit growth when considering a panel of 27 EU countries. When considering the case of Japan, a tighter capital conservation buffer leads to a decrease in the credit supply. When looking at a panel of 7 Latin American countries, our main results show that a tightening of the capital conservation buffer results in an increase in the credit supply. A tightening of the loan-to-value ratio results in a decrease in the credit supply in the panel of 7 Latin American countries. Lastly, a tightening in the overall macroprudential policy tool stance results in a decrease in credit supply in Japan and an increase in credit supply in Portugal.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The role of central banks and the political environment in financial stability : a literature review : Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK

Financial instability and the subsequent credit crunches experienced by a number of countries following two decades of global structural reforms highlighted the importance of stabilizing credit supply and assigning a higher importance to financial stability. In this paper, I look at the independence of the Central Bank, the political environment and the impact of these factors on financial stability. I substantiate the literature review discussion with a brief empirical analysis of the effect of Central Bank independence on credit growth using an existing database created by Romelli (2018). The empirical results show that fluctuations in credit growth are larger for higher levels of Central Bank Independence and hence, in periods of financial instability or ultimately financial crises, Central Bank Independence would be reined back in an effort to reestablish financial stability.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Essays on monetary policy and financial stability

Doutoramento em EconomiaBy focusing on the relationship between financial stability and monetary policy for the cases of Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK, this thesis aims to add to the existing literature on the fundamental issue of the relationship between financial stability and monetary policy, a traditional topic that gained importance in the aftermath of the GFC as Central Banks lowered policy rates in an effort to rescue their economies. As the zero-lower bound loomed and the reach of traditional monetary policy narrowed, policy makers realised that alternative frameworks were needed and hence, macroprudential policy measures aimed at targeting the financial system as a whole were introduced. The second chapter looks at the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability, which has gained importance in recent years as Central Bank policy rates neared the zero-lower bound. We use an SVAR model to study the impact of monetary policy shocks on three proxies for financial stability as well as a proxy for economic growth. Monetary policy is represented by policy rates for the EMEs and shadow rates for the AEs in our chapter. Our main results show that monetary policy may be used to correct asset mispricing, to control fluctuations in the real business cycle and also to tame credit cycles in the majority of cases. Our results also show that for the majority of cases, in line with theory, local currencies appreciate following a positive monetary policy shock. Monetary policy intervention may indeed be successful in contributing to or achieving financial stability. However, the results show that monetary policy may not have the ability to maintain or re-establish financial stability in all cases. Alternative policy choices such as macroprudential policy tool frameworks which are aimed at targeting the financial system as a whole may be implemented as a means of fortifying the economy. The third chapter looks at the institutional setting of the countries in question, the independence of the Central Bank, the political environment and the impact of these factors on financial Abstract stability. I substantiate the literature review discussion with a brief empirical analysis of the effect of Central Bank Independence on credit growth using an existing database created by Romelli (2018). The empirical results show that there is a positive relationship between credit growth and the level of Central Bank Independence (CBI) due to the positive and statistically significant coefficient on the interaction term between growth in domestic credit to the private sector and the level of CBI. When considering domestic credit by deposit money banks and other financial institutions, the interaction term is positive and statistically significant for the case of the UK for the third regression equation. A number of robustness checks show that the coefficient is positive and statistically significant for a number of cases when implementing a variety of estimation methods. Fluctuations in credit growth are larger for higher levels of CBI and hence, in periods of financial instability or ultimately financial crises, CBI would be reined back in an effort to re-establish financial stability. Based on the empirical results, and in an effort to slow down surging credit supply and to maintain financial stability, policy makers and governmental authorities should attempt to decrease the level of CBI when the economy shows signs of overheating and credit supply continues to increase. The fourth chapter looks at the interaction between macroprudential policy and financial stability. The unexpected interconnectedness of the global economy and the economic blight that occurred as a result of this, recapitulated the need to implement an alternative policy framework aimed at targeting the financial system as a whole and hence, targeting the maintenance of financial stability. In this chapter, an index of domestic macroprudential policy tools is constructed and the effectiveness of these tools in controlling credit growth, managing GDP growth and stabilising inflation growth is studied using a dynamic panel data model for the period between 2000 and 2017. The empirical analysis includes two panels namely an EU panel of 27 countries and a Latin American panel of 7 countries, the chapter also looks at a case study of Japan, Portugal and the UK. Our main results find that a tighter macroprudential policy tool stance leads to a decrease in both credit growth and GDP growth while, a tighter macroprudential policy tool stance results in higher inflation in the majority of cases. Further, we find that capital openness plays a more important role in the case of Latin America, this may be due to the region’s dependence on foreign capital flows and exchange rate movements. Lastly, we find that, in times of higher perceived market volatility, GDP growth tends to be higher and inflation growth tends to be lower in the EU. In the other cases, higher levels of perceived market volatility result in higher inflation, higher credit growth and lower GDP Abstract growth. This is in line with expectations as an increase in perceived market volatility is met with an increased flow of assets into safer markets such as the EU. This thesis establishes a relationship between financial stability and monetary policy by studying the response of Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK in the aftermath of the GFC as Central Banks lowered policy rates in an effort to rescue their economies. In short, the results of the work conducted in this thesis may be summarised as follows. Our results show that monetary policy contributes to the achievement of financial stability. Still, monetary policy alone is not sufficient and should be reinforced by less traditional policy choices such as macroprudential policy tools. Secondly, we find that the level of CBI should be reined in in times of surging credit supply in an effort to maintain financial stability. Finally, we conclude that macroprudential policy tools play an important role in the achievement of financial stability. These tools should complement traditional monetary policy frameworks and should be adapted for each region.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Is macroprudential policy driving savings?

This paper shows that the recent surge in savings is a result of tighter macroprudential policy. Using a difference-in-differences approach with staggered treatment adoption, we find that households in EU countries that adopted macroprudential policy between 2000 and 2019 increased their savings up to one third more than households in countries without macroprudential policy. Furthermore, our results indicate that the loan-to-value ratio explains most of the variation on savings. Finally, we find that a longer exposure to macroprudential policy exacerbates savings with searing consequences on growth.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Lineage-Specific Biology Revealed by a Finished Genome Assembly of the Mouse

A finished clone-based assembly of the mouse genome reveals extensive recent sequence duplication during recent evolution and rodent-specific expansion of certain gene families. Newly assembled duplications contain protein-coding genes that are mostly involved in reproductive function

Priorities for research in soil ecology

The ecological interactions that occur in and with soil are of consequence in many ecosystems on the planet. These interactions provide numerous essential ecosystem services, and the sustainable management of soils has attracted increasing scientific and public attention. Although soil ecology emerged as an independent field of research many decades ago, and we have gained important insights into the functioning of soils, there still are fundamental aspects that need to be better understood to ensure that the ecosystem services that soils provide are not lost and that soils can be used in a sustainable way. In this perspectives paper, we highlight some of the major knowledge gaps that should be prioritized in soil ecological research. These research priorities were compiled based on an online survey of 32 editors of Pedobiologia – Journal of Soil Ecology. These editors work at universities and research centers in Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. The questions were categorized into four themes: (1) soil biodiversity and biogeography, (2) interactions and the functioning of ecosystems, (3) global change and soil management, and (4) new directions. The respondents identified priorities that may be achievable in the near future, as well as several that are currently achievable but remain open. While some of the identified barriers to progress were technological in nature, many respondents cited a need for substantial leadership and goodwill among members of the soil ecology research community, including the need for multi-institutional partnerships, and had substantial concerns regarding the loss of taxonomic expertise

Macroprudential policy under uncertainty

In this paper, an index of domestic macroprudential policy tools is constructed and the efectiveness of these tools in controlling credit growth, managing GDP growth and steadying infation is studied using a dynamic panel data model for the period between 2000 and 2017. The empirical analysis includes two panels namely an EU panel of 27 countries and a Latin American panel of 7 countries, the paper also looks at a case study of Japan, Portugal and the UK. Our main results show that a tighter overall macroprudential policy stance would result in lower credit growth as well as lower GDP growth while, a tighter overall macroprudential policy tool stance would lead to higher infation in the majority of cases. Factors such as capital openness and the perception of global market risk play an important role in both the exigency of policy implementation as well as the success thereof.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio