Critical design considerations for time-to-event endpoints in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials

Background: Funding and resources for low prevalent neurodegenerative disorders such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are limited, and optimising their use is vital for efficient drug development. In this study, we review the design assumptions for pivotal ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints and provide optimised settings for future trials. Methods: We extracted design settings from 13 completed placebo-controlled trials. Optimal assumptions were estimated using parametric survival models in individual participant data (n=4991). Designs were compared in terms of sample size, trial duration, drug use and costs. Results: Previous trials overestimated the hazard rate by 18.9% (95% CI 3.4% to 34.5%, p=0.021). The median expected HR was 0.56 (range 0.33–0.66). Additionally, we found evidence for an increasing mean hazard rate over time (Weibull shape parameter of 2.03, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.15, p<0.001), which affects the design and planning of future clinical trials. Incorporating accrual time and assuming an increasing hazard rate at the design stage reduced sample size by 33.2% (95% CI 27.9 to 39.4), trial duration by 17.4% (95% CI 11.6 to 23.3), drug use by 14.3% (95% CI 9.6 to 19.0) and follow-up costs by 21.2% (95% CI 15.6 to 26.8). Conclusions: Implementing distributional knowledge and incorporating accrual at the design stage could achieve large gains in the efficiency of ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. We provide an open-source platform that helps investigators to make more accurate sample size calculations and optimise the use of their available resources

Cell-of-origin classification using the Hans and Lymph2Cx algorithms in primary cutaneous large B-cell lymphomas

Primary cutaneous diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, leg type (PCDLBCL-LT) and primary cutaneous follicle center lymphoma with a diffuse population of large cells (PCFCL-LC) are both primary cutaneous B-cell lymphomas with large-cell morphology (CLBCL) but with different clinical characteristics and behavior. In systemic diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified (DLBCL-NOS), gene-expression profiling (GEP) revealed two molecular subgroups based on their cell-of-origin (COO) with prognostic significance: the germinal center B-cell-like (GCB) subtype and the activated B-cell-like (ABC) subtype. This study investigated whether COO classification is a useful tool for classification of CLBCL. For this retrospective study, 51 patients with PCDLBCL-LT and 15 patients with PCFCL-LC were analyzed for their COO according to the immunohistochemistry-based Hans algorithm and the NanoString GEP-based Lymph2Cx algorithm. In PCFCL-LC, all cases (100%) classified as GCB by both Hans and Lymph2Cx. In contrast, COO classification in PCDLBCL-LT was heterogeneous. Using Hans, 75% of the PCDLBCL-LT patients classified as non-GCB and 25% as GCB, while Lymph2Cx classified only 18% as ABC, 43% as unclassified/intermediate, and 39% as GCB. These COO subgroups did not differ in the expression of BCL2 and IgM, mutations in MYD88 and/or CD79B, loss of CDKN2A, or survival. In conclusion, PCFCL-LC uniformly classified as GCB, while PCDLBCL-LT classified along the COO spectrum of DLBCL-NOS using the Hans and Lymph2Cx algorithms. In contrast to DLBCL-NOS, the clinical relevance of COO classification in CLBCL using these algorithms has limitations and cannot be used as an alternative for the current multiparameter approach in differentiation of PCDLBCL-LT and PCFCL-LC

Genetic Stability of Driver Alterations in Primary Cutaneous Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma, Leg Type and Their Relapses:A Rationale for the Use of Molecular-Based Methods for More Effective Disease Monitoring

Primary cutaneous diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, leg type (PCDLBCL-LT) is a rare, aggressive cutaneous lymphoma with a 5-year disease-specific survival of only ~55%. Despite high response rates to initial immune-polychemotherapy, most patients experience a disease relapse. The genetic evolution of primary and relapsed/refractory disease has only scarcely been studied in PCDLBCL-LT patients. Therefore, in this retrospective cohort study, 73 primary/pre-treatment and relapsed/refractory biopsies of 57 patients with PCDLBCL-LT were molecularly characterized with triple FISH and targeted next-generation sequencing for 52 B-cell-lymphoma-relevant genes, including paired analysis in 16 patients. In this cohort, 95% of patients harboured at least one of the three main driver alterations (mutations in MYD88/CD79B and/or CDKN2A-loss). In relapsed/refractory PCDLBCL-LT, these oncogenic aberrations were persistently present, demonstrating genetic stability over time. Novel alterations in relapsed disease affected mostly CDKN2A, MYC, and PIM1. Regarding survival, only MYC rearrangements and HIST1H1E mutations were statistically significantly associated with an inferior outcome. The stable presence of one or more of the three main driver alterations (mutated MYD88/CD79B and/or CDKN2A-loss) is promising for targeted therapies addressing these alterations and serves as a rationale for molecular-based disease monitoring, improving response evaluation and early identification and intervention of disease relapses in these poor-prognostic PCDLBCL-LT patients

Lithium carbonate in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 in UNC13A: protocol for a confirmatory, randomized, group-sequential, event-driven, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BackgroundGiven the large genetic heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), it seems likely that genetic subgroups may benefit differently from treatment. An exploratory meta-analysis identified that patients homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932, a single nucleotide polymorphism in the gene UNC13A, had a statistically significant survival benefit when treated with lithium carbonate. We aim to confirm the efficacy of lithium carbonate on the time to death or respiratory insufficiency in patients with ALS homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 in UNC13A. MethodsA randomized, group-sequential, event-driven, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will be conducted in 15 sites across Europe and Australia. Patients will be genotyped for UNC13A; those homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 will be eligible. Patients must have a diagnosis of ALS according to the revised El Escorial criteria, and a TRICALS risk-profile score between -6.0 and -2.0. An expected number of 1200 patients will be screened in order to enroll a target sample size of 171 patients. Patients will be randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to lithium carbonate or matching placebo, and treated for a maximum duration of 24 months. The primary endpoint is the time to death or respiratory insufficiency, whichever occurs first. Key secondary endpoints include functional decline, respiratory function, quality of life, tolerability, and safety. An interim analysis for futility and efficacy will be conducted after the occurrence of 41 events. DiscussionLithium carbonate has been proven to be safe and well-tolerated in patients with ALS. Given the favorable safety profile, the potential benefits are considered to outweigh the burden and risks associated with study participation. This study may provide conclusive evidence about the life-prolonging potential of lithium carbonate in a genetic ALS subgroup

Frequent mutated B2M, EZH2, IRF8, and TNFRSF14 in primary bone diffuse large B-cell lymphoma reflect a GCB phenotype

Primary bone diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (PB-DLBCL) is a rare extranodal lymphoma subtype. This retrospective study elucidates the currently unknown genetic background of a large clinically well-annotated cohort of DLBCL with osseous localizations (O-DLBCL), including PB-DLBCL. A total of 103 patients with O-DLBCL were included and compared with 63 (extra)nodal non-osseous (NO)-DLBCLs with germinal center B-cell phenotype (NO-DLBCL-GCB). Cell-of-origin was determined by immunohistochemistry and gene-expression profiling (GEP) using (extended)-NanoString/Lymph2Cx analysis. Mutational profiles were identified with targeted next-generation deep sequencing, including 52 B-cell lymphoma-relevant genes. O-DLBCLs, including 34 PB-DLBCLs, were predominantly classified as GCB phenotype based on immunohistochemistry (74%) and NanoString analysis (88%). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of an extended-NanoString/Lymph2Cx revealed significantly different GEP clusters for PB-DLBCL as opposed to NO-DLBCL-GCB (P < .001). Expression levels of 23 genes of 2 different targeted GEP panels indicated a centrocyte-like phenotype for PB-DLBCL, whereas NO-DLBCL-GCB exhibited a centroblast-like constitution. PB-DLBCL had significantly more frequent mutations in four GCB-associated genes (ie, B2M, EZH2, IRF8, TNFRSF14) compared with NO-DLBCL-GCB (P = .031, P = .010, P = .047, and P = .003, respectively). PB-DLBCL, with its corresponding specific mutational profile, was significantly associated with a superior survival compared with equivalent Ann Arbor limited-stage I/II NO-DLBCL-GCB (P = .016). This study is the first to show that PB-DLBCL is characterized by a GCB phenotype, with a centrocyte-like GEP pattern and a GCB-associated mutational profile (both involved in immune surveillance) and a favorable prognosis. These novel biology-associated features provide evidence that PB-DLBCL represents a distinct extranodal DLBCL entity, and its specific mutational landscape offers potential for targeted therapies (eg, EZH2 inhibitors)

Meta-analysis of pharmacogenetic interactions in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether genetic subgroups in recent amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) trials responded to treatment with lithium carbonate, but that the treatment effect was lost in a large cohort of nonresponders. METHODS: Individual participant data were obtained from 3 randomized trials investigating the efficacy of lithium carbonate. We matched clinical data with data regarding the UNC13A and C9orf72 genotype. Our primary outcome was survival at 12 months. On an exploratory basis, we assessed whether the effect of lithium depended on the genotype. RESULTS: Clinical data were available for 518 of the 606 participants. Overall, treatment with lithium carbonate did not improve 12-month survival (hazard ratio [HR] 1.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7-1.4; p = 0.96). Both the UNC13A and C9orf72 genotype were independent predictors of survival (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3-4.3; p = 0.006 and HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.2; p = 0.032, respectively). The effect of lithium was different for UNC13A carriers (p = 0.027), but not for C9orf72 carriers (p = 0.22). The 12-month survival probability for UNC13A carriers treated with lithium carbonate improved from 40.1% (95% CI 23.2-69.1) to 69.7% (95% CI 50.4-96.3). CONCLUSIONS: This study incorporated genetic data into past ALS trials to determine treatment effects in a genetic post hoc analysis. Our results suggest that we should reorient our strategies toward finding treatments for ALS, start focusing on genotype-targeted treatments, and standardize genotyping in order to optimize randomization and analysis for future clinical trials

Common and rare variant association analyses in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis identify 15 risk loci with distinct genetic architectures and neuron-specific biology

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with a lifetime risk of one in 350 people and an unmet need for disease-modifying therapies. We conducted a cross-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 29,612 patients with ALS and 122,656 controls, which identified 15 risk loci. When combined with 8,953 individuals with whole-genome sequencing (6,538 patients, 2,415 controls) and a large cortex-derived expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) dataset (MetaBrain), analyses revealed locus-specific genetic architectures in which we prioritized genes either through rare variants, short tandem repeats or regulatory effects. ALS-associated risk loci were shared with multiple traits within the neurodegenerative spectrum but with distinct enrichment patterns across brain regions and cell types. Of the environmental and lifestyle risk factors obtained from the literature, Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal role for high cholesterol levels. The combination of all ALS-associated signals reveals a role for perturbations in vesicle-mediated transport and autophagy and provides evidence for cell-autonomous disease initiation in glutamatergic neurons. A cross-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) including 29,612 patients with ALS and 122,656 controls identifies 15 risk loci with distinct genetic architectures and neuron-specific biology

Common and rare variant association analyses in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis identify 15 risk loci with distinct genetic architectures and neuron-specific biology

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with a lifetime risk of one in 350 people and an unmet need for disease-modifying therapies. We conducted a cross-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 29,612 patients with ALS and 122,656 controls, which identified 15 risk loci. When combined with 8,953 individuals with whole-genome sequencing (6,538 patients, 2,415 controls) and a large cortex-derived expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) dataset (MetaBrain), analyses revealed locus-specific genetic architectures in which we prioritized genes either through rare variants, short tandem repeats or regulatory effects. ALS-associated risk loci were shared with multiple traits within the neurodegenerative spectrum but with distinct enrichment patterns across brain regions and cell types. Of the environmental and lifestyle risk factors obtained from the literature, Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal role for high cholesterol levels. The combination of all ALS-associated signals reveals a role for perturbations in vesicle-mediated transport and autophagy and provides evidence for cell-autonomous disease initiation in glutamatergic neurons. A cross-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) including 29,612 patients with ALS and 122,656 controls identifies 15 risk loci with distinct genetic architectures and neuron-specific biology

Prognosis for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: development and validation of a personalised prediction model

Summary Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive, fatal motor neuron disease with a variable natural history. There are no accurate models that predict the disease course and outcomes, which complicates risk assessment and counselling for individual patients, stratification of patients for trials, and timing of interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting a composite survival endpoint for individual patients with ALS. Methods We obtained data for patients from 14 specialised ALS centres (each one designated as a cohort) in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. All patients were diagnosed in the centres after excluding other diagnoses and classified according to revised El Escorial criteria. We assessed 16 patient characteristics as potential predictors of a composite survival outcome (time between onset of symptoms and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day, tracheostomy, or death) and applied backward elimination with bootstrapping in the largest population-based dataset for predictor selection. Data were gathered on the day of diagnosis or as soon as possible thereafter. Predictors that were selected in more than 70% of the bootstrap resamples were used to develop a multivariable Royston-Parmar model for predicting the composite survival outcome in individual patients. We assessed the generalisability of the model by estimating heterogeneity of predictive accuracy across external populations (ie, populations not used to develop the model) using internal–external cross-validation, and quantified the discrimination using the concordance (c) statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) and calibration using a calibration slope. Findings Data were collected between Jan 1, 1992, and Sept 22, 2016 (the largest data-set included data from 1936 patients). The median follow-up time was 97·5 months (IQR 52·9–168·5). Eight candidate predictors entered the prediction model: bulbar versus non-bulbar onset (univariable hazard ratio [HR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·63–1·79), age at onset (1·03, 1·03–1·03), definite versus probable or possible ALS (1·47, 1·39–1·55), diagnostic delay (0·52, 0·51–0·53), forced vital capacity (HR 0·99, 0·99–0·99), progression rate (6·33, 5·92–6·76), frontotemporal dementia (1·34, 1·20–1·50), and presence of a C9orf72 repeat expansion (1·45, 1·31–1·61), all p<0·0001. The c statistic for external predictive accuracy of the model was 0·78 (95% CI 0·77–0·80; 95% prediction interval [PI] 0·74–0·82) and the calibration slope was 1·01 (95% CI 0·95–1·07; 95% PI 0·83–1·18). The model was used to define five groups with distinct median predicted (SE) and observed (SE) times in months from symptom onset to the composite survival outcome: very short 17·7 (0·20), 16·5 (0·23); short 25·3 (0·06), 25·2 (0·35); intermediate 32·2 (0·09), 32·8 (0·46); long 43·7 (0·21), 44·6 (0·74); and very long 91·0 (1·84), 85·6 (1·96). Interpretation We have developed an externally validated model to predict survival without tracheostomy and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day in European patients with ALS. This model could be applied to individualised patient management, counselling, and future trial design, but to maximise the benefit and prevent harm it is intended to be used by medical doctors only. Funding Netherlands ALS Foundation